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Weekend Thread: Raya 2.5 Friday, T&J 1.6, Chaos 1.3

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https://deadline.com/2021/03/raya-and-the-last-dragon-opening-weekend-box-office-new-york-city-disney-1234708406/

 

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Even with three new wide releases at this weekend’s box office, and New York City finally reopening, numbers still aren’t at pre-pandemic levels, but there’s a lot of drama going on.

 

Let’s start with Disney’s theatrical day and date Disney+ release of animated pic Raya and the Last Dragon which looks to be leading the weekend with a $2.5M Friday and an estimated $8.3M at 2,045 theaters. These numbers are slightly less than the $3M Friday and $9M-$10M we were hearing about, and they’re definitely less than the $14.1M that Warner Bros’ same day HBO Max release of Tom & Jerry posted last weekend with $14.1M. Raya‘s opening weekend is also less than the 3-day from Croods: A New Age‘s Thanksgiving opening stretch which was $9.7M. And that’s definitely because Disney did not reach a deal with No. 3 chain Cinemark, as we first told you (thus, losing around 250 bookings), Harkins, and Canada’s Cineplex. Even with New York City open, Raya isn’t the type of movie that would rally in the city like say a Marvel movie.

 

Even though these numbers on Raya aren’t as robust (for the pandemic) as we saw yesterday, the release is striking plenty of fear for rival distributors and for exhibition; particularly after CEO Bob Chapek’s recent statements Monday at virtual investment conference hosted by Morgan Stanley in which he said things like The consumer is probably more impatient than they’ve ever been before” and that given how the pandemic has brought a number of movies into the home, he’s not sure “there’s going back” to the way business way. Even though Chapek said, “We certainly don’t want to do anything like cut the legs off a theatrical exhibition run,” many are concerned all of this is code for Disney moving forward with their theatrical day and date Disney+ model; and that Black Widow may emulate the same distribution path as Raya on May 7. Keep in mind that even if Los Angeles is reopened by then, and auditorium capacity restrictions ease, Disney still needs the rest of the world to move ahead with Black Widow and make the $1 billion grossing film that everyone wants to see.

 

What’s scaring many about Raya is that Disney gets to keep 100% of whatever they’re making from the $30 Disney+ PVOD purchase of Raya. Disney doesn’t have to split that PVOD revenue with any exhibitor. It was explained to me that Raya‘s $30 price point on Disney+ is roughly equivalent to the rental that Disney would get from five or six movie tickets. Wow. While I’ve heard Warner Bros. has been a partner with exhibition, and has made a deal on terms for their same day HBO Max titles, Disney hasn’t budged.

 

I’m told that Disney’s terms for Raya were a two-week minimum play with a scale that starts at a 50% rental if the film grosses ultimately between $0 and $37.5M, and then 51% if the domestic gross finals between $37.5M and $50M. While those terms aren’t stiff in a regular marketplace, we’re still in a pandemic, and people still aren’t flocking to the movies in great numbers, plus movie theaters have to compete with the whole Disney+ PVOD of it all. How fair is that?

 

Let’s see what happens with Black Widow, and if Disney emulates a Raya theatrical-Disney+ distribution pattern for that. I would like to give Chapek the benefit of the doubt. Back at December’s Disney Investor Day he clearly emphasized that a robust Disney+ slate wouldn’t be possible without the power of the big screen and the franchises it has created. At the same time, he’s the guy who crushed the theatrical-DVD window, starting with Alice in Wonderland back in 2010; and the studio still walked away with a $1.025 billion global gross on that movie. Disney didn’t burn down the house to keep warm back then, and I still don’t think they will. Currently, the studio says that Black Widow is still going theatrical on May 7, and exhibition hasn’t heard otherwise, they’re just very suspicious since there weren’t any trailers for the Marvel movie on Raya this past weekend, only those for Disney’s May 28 theatrical release Cruella. 

 

From a sheer box office optics point of view, one can argue that Disney left money on the table with Raya with boxing out Cinemark and Canada’s Cineplex. Why would you do that with a film like Raya that has an A CinemaScore, is 95% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and fantastic PostTrak audience exits of 93% with an 80% recommend from the general crowd?

 

Only Disney knows the answer to that question. When it comes to the potential non-reporting of Disney+ Raya PVOD figures, no news is good news. For anything greater would throw the motion picture distribution model off its axis.

 

Warners isn’t reporting numbers on Tom & Jerry today but we hear it’s headed for a No. 2 slot in its second weekend at 2,563 locations (+88) with an industry estimated Friday of $1.6M, -60% from a week ago, and 3-day of $6.75M, -52% for a ten-day running total of $23.1M. There was chatter among rivals heading into the weekend that Tom & Jerry could possibly steal it from Raya given how that film didn’t have Cinemark; that doesn’t look to be the case, and the fall on these theatrical-HBO Max titles are looking to be steeper in weekend 2. Remember, Wonder Woman 1984 dropped 67%, and that was over a New Year’s Weekend, typically a big time for moviegoing.

 

Lionsgate’s much delayed $100M YA gamble Chaos Walking starring Daisy Ridley and Tom Holland is poised to lose money just like any big wide release coming out during the pandemic where 50% of all 5,8K U.S. and Canadian theaters are closed. Industry estimates show the movie with a $1.3M Friday and 3-day of $3.7M. The diagnostics on the film with a B CinemaScore, horrible reviews at 24% Rotten, and a PostTrak of 67% and a 41% recommend indicate the movie was never going to rally even in a healthy marketplace, so the studio decided to go. The pic’s opening weekend is in sync with what box office sources were projecting heading into the weekend.

 

In fourth place is Focus Features’ Eddie Huang movie Boogie which did $430K at 1,252 locations yesterday on its way to a 3-day of $1.26M. Pic landed a C+ CinemaScore.

 

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This Deadline writer is such a Disney Stan, it’s too funny. He doesn’t even try to hide it. Throwing shade at HBOMAX is not the move. T&J was expected to drop hard. In fact, I am surprised it didn’t drop more. As for WW84, that was a harsh drop but it started at the highest point since the pandemic. Looks like Rita’s opening won’t be much more than WW84 second weekend. WW84 had less theaters opened and zero theaters in major market. I just don’t understand why people are attempting to compare pandemic numbers to non pandemic numbers. If Tom & Jerry hadn’t opened at 14 million and you told Disney that Riya would open to 8 million, they wouldn’t have been disappointed. The market place is what it is. I don’t know why people are disappointed with these numbers. The movies will do fine on steaming. 

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7 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

This Deadline writer is such a Disney Stan, it’s too funny. He doesn’t even try to hide it. Throwing shade at HBOMAX is not the move. T&J was expected to drop hard. In fact, I am surprised it didn’t drop more. As for WW84, that was a harsh drop but it started at the highest point since the pandemic. Looks like Rita’s opening won’t be much more than WW84 second weekend. WW84 had less theaters opened and zero theaters in major market. I just don’t understand why people are attempting to compare pandemic numbers to non pandemic numbers. If Tom & Jerry hadn’t opened at 14 million and you told Disney that Riya would open to 8 million, they wouldn’t have been disappointed. The market place is what it is. I don’t know why people are disappointed with these numbers. The movies will do fine on steaming. 

What are you even talking about? How is an article that talks about how Disney's theatrical terms were unfair, mentions the opening was below expectations, and is against the Premier Access strategy somehow makes the writer a "Disney Stan"? How mean and negative does he have to be to make it clear he's not a Disney stan?

 

And he wasn't even being mean to Tom & Jerry at all. He's just reporting that people thought it would repeat at #1, and it won't. He also said the film had a larger drop because all the other WB/Max titles have and...yeah, that's largely been the case so far.

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Really bad for Raya, as I’ve said elsewhere. 
 

Tom & Jerry solid in the face of a new high profile Disney film going for exactly the same audience meanwhile T&J is available at home for either free or half the price. And it has a 25% score compared to Raya. Interesting! 
 

Chaos Walking opening to the standard pandemic $3-4m, more than I thought that cursed film would lol. 
 

Terrible reaction from audiences to Boogie, whatever it is. 

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Posted this in Raya thread, but overall DOM BO finally clears $20M Top 10, but won't make $30M Top 10 this weekend.  Slow spring recovery now confirmed (it's not just gonna spike up b/c we want it to, even with a bunch of new movies)...

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Various chains boycotting definitely hurt a bit but honestly had been feeling for a while that Disney was sacrificing this as a glorified + exclusive. They're going to really be paying attention to how it does there, though unfortunately they're unlikely to report the numbers.

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Jesus, when the B.O will be recovered? If it happens at all. In some places where the vaccination is in full speed (China, SK, Japan, Russia) the B.O already came back to the level pre-pandemic, and yet, in America, where the numbers of cases has been decreasing for weeks now, a movie can't even reach $10m on OW?

 

I wonder if the DOM market is over for good. 

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31 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Amazing if chains boycotting Disney hurt them , way too many times they have bullied cinemas

 

Karma...it exists:).  Maybe they'll be nicer on Black Widow:)...

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10 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Jesus, when the B.O will be recovered? If it happens at all. In some places where the vaccination is in full speed (China, SK, Japan, Russia) the B.O already came back to the level pre-pandemic, and yet, in America, where the numbers of cases has been decreasing for weeks now, a movie can't even reach $10m on OW?

 

I wonder if the DOM market is over for good. 

 

Tom and Jerry made $14.110M last weekend, on a non-holiday:).  So, double digit opens are possible now...$20M OW is the next mile marker...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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$20M is possible already this weekend. So is 25. Not sure if much higher yet. The central awkward dynamic is you can’t really test the market without marquee content but it doesn’t make sense to release marquee content in the current market. 
 

Market capacity will grow a lot this month but we don’t have any releases that will be illuminating until GvK or maaaaaaaybe Nobody.    
 

 

Edited by WandaLegion
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4 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Jesus, when the B.O will be recovered? If it happens at all. In some places where the vaccination is in full speed (China, SK, Japan, Russia) the B.O already came back to the level pre-pandemic, and yet, in America, where the numbers of cases has been decreasing for weeks now, a movie can't even reach $10m on OW?

 

I wonder if the DOM market is over for good. 

The vaccination is in full speed here in the UK and not a single cinema is open unfortunately. 
 

England are aiming for May. Scotland, Ireland and Wales might be June/July. We have the virus under better control than England, but our leaders are more cautious. 

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Godzilla vs Kong is going to be a good test at the end of the month. It should clear $20 million.

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Raya wasn't ever going to be a smashing success. Imo it would have done Onward-level opening pre-pandemic imo (or best, low-40s). The marketing didn't help too much, the fact that Tom and Jerry just broke out could also be a factor. I don't think we really need to start to panic about the return of box office unless GvK opens below T&J.

 

Also Chaos Walking lol. I'll stick to reading the book for now.

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8 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Jesus, when the B.O will be recovered? If it happens at all. In some places where the vaccination is in full speed (China, SK, Japan, Russia) the B.O already came back to the level pre-pandemic, and yet, in America, where the numbers of cases has been decreasing for weeks now, a movie can't even reach $10m on OW?

 

I wonder if the DOM market is over for good. 

Some time next year. Next year will be worse than 2017 but not horrible if Avatar actually comes out. Considering it's delayed like 37 times who knows

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5 hours ago, TLK said:

Godzilla vs Kong is going to be a good test at the end of the month. It should clear $20 million.

it will likely have horrible legs , having a 4k quality rip online instantly won't help

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6 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

What's the issue with Cinemark anyway? Why won't they show Raya?

Disney wanted to have the movie playing with their usual terms despite the fact it was also going to be available on D+ at the same time and Cinemark and other chains weren't here for it, so they passed.

 

Not that Disney seems too broken up about it (for now), since this was clearly used as a sacrificial lamb to test the Premier Access waters again.

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Disney wanted to have the movie playing with their usual terms despite the fact it was also going to be available on D+ at the same time and Cinemark and other chains weren't here for it, so they passed.

 

Not that Disney seems too broken up about it (for now), since this was clearly used as a sacrificial lamb to test the Premier Access waters again.

But they were fine with Warner Brothers doing it with HBO Max?

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