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Eric the Jigsaw Killer

Weekend Thread: Raya 1.5 Friday, T&J 1

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https://deadline.com/2021/03/raya-and-the-last-dragon-weekend-box-office-los-angeles-movie-theaters-reopening-1234713807/

 

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Saturday AM Update: There’s lots of good news ahead at the box office, but we’re not quite there yet.

The No. 1 box office market (over $900M in 2019), Los Angeles, won’t begin to wake up until really next weekend, and then the industry’s only headache is waiting for capacity restrictions to increase well beyond the current 25% which NYC and LA are currently capped. Of the 5,8K theaters in U.S. and Canada, only 51% are currently open this weekend. The New York DMA, including the recently reopened NYC five boroughs last weekend, is only 44% opened currently, but there are parts of Canada which are alive, i.e. Quebec at 73%, Saskatchewan at 55%, and Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut at 100%.

 

While the B.O. is still in repair, Disney’s second weekend of Raya and the Last Dragonwhich is also available on Disney+ for an extra $30 to subscribers, is leading this weekend with $1.5M yesterday and an estimated $5.7M, -33% at 2,163 locations (+118) for a 10-day gross of $16M. Friday was off 42%. While we were very nervous about this new day and date theatrical Disney+ model, those with knowledge of Disney’s distribution maneuvers believe that it was merely an experiment, not apt to shake-up the entire future of theatrical releasing, and that day and date theatrical-streaming releases aren’t part of their longterm plans to make banks on their slate. Also, the Burbank, CA lot heard the message loud and clear from those exhibitors like Cinemark, Harkins, and others who refused to play Raya, and clearly the movie is suffering from those chains absence in its box office equation.

 

 

Warner Bros.’ Tom & Jerry is estimated to have grossed $1M in its third Friday, -37%, for a 3-day of $4M, -39% at 2,434 theaters (-129), and a running total of $26.9M. The pic is currently on WarnerMedia’s subscriber streaming service HBO Max for another 15 days before theaters have it exclusive in the pic’s second month run.

 

Lionsgate’s Chaos Walking in weekend 2 is ranking 3rd with a $642K Friday, -52%, and an estimated 3-day of $2.36M at 1,995 sites (+15), -37%, and a running total of $7M by Sunday.

 

Fourth is going to Focus Features’ Boogie in weekend 2 with $220K Friday, -50%, for a 3-day of $730K, -39%, at 1,272 theaters (+20) for a 10-day running today of $2.27M.

 

And fifth goes to the family pandemic sleeper that won’t stop, Universal/Dreamworks Animation’s Croods: A New Age which is seeing a Friday in weekend 16 of $120K, -41%, a 3-day of $500K, -37%, at 1,440 theaters (-164) and a running total of $54.2M.

 

While there aren’t any wide releases this weekend, we have Sony Pictures Classics’ Anthony Hopkins-Olivia Colman awards season contender The Father booked at 865 venues which according to industry estimates made $123K yesterday on its way to a 3-day debut of $380K in the No. 10 spot for a per theater of $439 . Sony is shielding its box office figures from rival distributors in Comscore. The pic, directed by Florian Zeller, is 99% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and armed with four Golden Globe noms, two SAG noms for Hopkins in lead and Colman in supporting, and six BAFTA noms. Audience exits on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak were strong at 84% positive and a 54% recommend. Guys showed up at 52%, with 76% over 35 with the single largest demo being 55+ at 39%. That’s very good news as some in distribution circles have been concerned about the older demo returning to the cinemas as Covid quells. Clearly here, it shows they want to get out. Diversity breakdown was 78% Caucasian, 11% Hispanic, 5% Black, and 6% Asian.

 

Big Sony has the Stephen Basilone-directed Long Weekend at 814 sites with an OK 71% fresh Rotten Tomatoes rating for this romantic comedy. Industry estimates see a Friday of $76,5K, 3-day of $220K in the No. 11 spot. Bad exits here at 55% and a 32% definite recommend on PostTrak. Fifty-eight percent females bought tickets, 81% over 25 with the single largest demo being 45-54 year olds at 24%. Diversity demos were 67% Caucasian, 12% Hispanic, 13% Black, & 8% Asian.

 

Some distributors speculate that we’ll be around 4,2K theaters by the time Disney’s Black Widow on May 7 opens. As we always said, it’s going to be gradual box office comeback, not an elevator lift, however, May, brings a tremendous amount of hope with Black Widow, Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II, 20th’s Free Guy, Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway and Disney’s Cruella. It’s that type of cluster of films on the marquee which is required to lure moviegoers back, not one singular film, ala Tenet.

 

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For Top 10 DOM, assuming #5-10 all make $500K (since the Croods is #5 with a 3 day of $500K and The Father is #10 at $380K, so let's overestimate a touch)...

 

Raya $5.7M

T&J $4M

Chaos Walking $2.4M (I'm rounding up)

Boogie $2.3M (Again, rounding up)

Croods $500K

#6-10 $2.5M

 

Total Top 10 DOM is $17.4M, so comfortably back under $20M Top 10 DOM, even with the extra theater openings (no new openers of note didn't help, although Cinemark did hype the 2 around here).  We'll see what CA brings to the table next week, although slow and hopefully steady seems like what we're gonna keep being in for each week.  

 

Hopefully Kong vs Godzilla can get us to a Top 10 DOM $40M weekend, maybe even a $50M one with the spring break/Easter holiday having everyone out of school on the Friday...maybe...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For Top 10 DOM, assuming #5-10 all make $500K (since the Croods is #5 with a 3 day of $500K and The Father is #10 at $380K, so let's overestimate a touch)...

 

Raya $5.7M

T&J $4M

Chaos Walking $2.4M (I'm rounding up)

Boogie $2.3M (Again, rounding up)

Croods $500K

#6-10 $2.5M

 

Total Top 10 DOM is $17.4M, so comfortably back under $20M Top 10 DOM, even with the extra theater openings (no new openers of note didn't help, although Cinemark did hype the 2 around here).  We'll see what CA brings to the table next week, although slow and hopefully steady seems like what we're gonna keep being in for each week.  

 

Hopefully Kong vs Godzilla can get us to a Top 10 DOM $40M weekend, maybe even a $50M one with the spring break/Easter holiday having everyone out of school on the Friday...maybe...

When is spring break begin in USA?

 

Hope spring break can boost vaccination too since people have more free time to line up for inoculation  

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29 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

When is spring break begin in USA?

 

Hope spring break can boost vaccination too 


Oh my friend. This is the US of A. Those on spring break are gonna be partying and hooking up, they’re not getting vaccinated. :lol: 

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Anyway, since weekend threads need to be derailed, and since a Disney animated movie is at the top, I figured it was finally time to watch another Disney animated movie I had missed which my kids kept refusing to watch with me (so I finally watched it myself) - Frozen 2.

 

And, what a weird movie.  I felt like Disney fed a computer with the formula and parts of what you need for a great movie, and what got spit out wasn't it.  The music was beautiful, the animation was on point, the voice work was fine...but on the whole, it wasn't a good movie.  The plot was full of holes, and almost nonsense to the point that you just have to accept what comes and the over-the-top obviousness of the toys they were hoping to sell just cynically got to me:).

 

I think I give it a B-, b/c I did really love the music...and maybe a rewatch isn't my best bet, but just a listen to the soundtrack.

 

PS - Now, I admit I'm not in the sunniest mood b/c my 2 youngest are in quarantine thanks to a teacher exposing them (and boy, did I find it incredibly interesting that while we follow the old 2 weeks, and not the new 10 days, for quarantine, we don't follow the "quarantine the family", but just the exposed kids...when you find out on day 10, this seems like insanity to me...but maybe that's why US contract tracing failed so well...it also doesn't help that they canceled class Tuesday, but told us Friday...after my kid had gone to the pediatric ortho Thursday...did I mention how awesome US contract tracing and informing is?  We find out Friday, and are done this Tuesday, and I could still come and go as I please)...

 

PPS - We are all staying home til quarantine is over b/c if you can recognize dumb policy, you can do better:)...Now, to just get my darn shot scheduled in the next week or two b/c I'm up to 30K on the waitlist, but they are apparently doubling the doses very soon!

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Didn't like Tom and Jerry. Too much dumb live action humans and not enough cat and mouse beating the shit out of each other.

 

At least it's better than stuff like 

 

Also if the people are going to party on Spring Break, chances are they got vaccinated or that they had already gotten the virus.

Edited by CrashBandicoot81
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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So Raya will be $6.25-6.7M. Quite good. Without LA re-opening, I would be guessing $50-60M full run, with LA may be $60-70M now.

That total would be amazing with that ow 

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Tom and Jerry going strong. I honestly don’t see the appeal. However, there’s really not much out there now to see. GvK will benefit greatly from an open field too. Just spitballing, but perhaps Warner should have given the trimmed down Snyder Cut a theatrical release and rewarded HBOMAX customers with the longer version. 

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18 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:


Oh my friend. This is the US of A. Those on spring break are gonna be partying and hooking up, they’re not getting vaccinated. :lol: 

I don't suppose covid-19 antibody can be transmitted in that way during exchanging of body fluid  

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https://deadline.com/2021/03/raya-and-the-last-dragon-weekend-box-office-los-angeles-movie-theaters-reopening-1234713807/

 

$5.5M Raya 

$4.1M T&J

$2.25M Chaos Walking

$730K Boogie

$520K Croods

$312.5K The Father (#10 place DOM)

$245K Long Weekend (#11 place DOM)

 

Everything (except TJ and Croods) down a little from estimates...probably not the weekend the holdovers were hoping for b/c even with the limited openers, nothing had an amazing, amazing hold...

 

Total WW for Raya - "but Raya made $11.5M in its second overseas weekend for a combined $17M WW, taking its global total to $52.6M."

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Just struck to me that Friday for Raya will having the Thursday night showing of those extra 150 theaters it had, so actual Friday may be around $1.4M. Sunday drop Deadline is going harsh I guess, but not having Canada may be hurting Sunday hold, as usually Canada lowers DOM the Sunday drop, and last week Sunday dropped 40%, so I guess, fair enough.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Tom & Jerry closing the gap on Raya to $1.4m. 
 

Yeh it’s unusual there weren’t any amazing holds considering absolutely zero competition. 
 

3 more weeks to go of no competition for Raya and T&J too. 

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47 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

https://deadline.com/2021/03/raya-and-the-last-dragon-weekend-box-office-los-angeles-movie-theaters-reopening-1234713807/

 

$5.5M Raya 

$4.1M T&J

$2.25M Chaos Walking

$730K Boogie

$520K Croods

$312.5K The Father (#10 place DOM)

$245K Long Weekend (#11 place DOM)

 

Everything (except TJ and Croods) down a little from estimates...probably not the weekend the holdovers were hoping for b/c even with the limited openers, nothing had an amazing, amazing hold...

 

Total WW for Raya - "but Raya made $11.5M in its second overseas weekend for a combined $17M WW, taking its global total to $52.6M."

All things considered, that was an okay hold for Raya. Looks like the race for top animated movie of pandemic will be between T&J and Croods. Don’t think Croods will catch Tenet though. Although Croods’ run is more impressive considering it had to survive much harsher times than Tenet did at the time of its release. The box office is depressing right now. Can’t wait for things to turn up a bit in the next few months. 

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34 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Tom & Jerry closing the gap on Raya to $1.4m. 
 

Yeh it’s unusual there weren’t any amazing holds considering absolutely zero competition. 
 

3 more weeks to go of no competition for Raya and T&J too. 

on the contrary.
 

T & J started 64% ahead Raya in first weekend. (14.1 vs 8.5)

Just 20% ahead in Raya 2nd weekend. (6.6 vs 5.5)

3rd weekend Raya would have matched T&J 3rd weekend, but now since LA will open, it will probably grow. (4.1 vs 4.1+)

 

In another sense, comparing the same weekend (s).

 

Raya was ahead 29% (22% pure FSS) in last weekend.

34% ahead this weekend.

Next would have been probably 40-45% or so.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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31 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

All things considered, that was an okay hold for Raya. Looks like the race for top animated movie of pandemic will be between T&J and Croods. Don’t think Croods will catch Tenet though. Although Croods’ run is more impressive considering it had to survive much harsher times than Tenet did at the time of its release. The box office is depressing right now. Can’t wait for things to turn up a bit in the next few months. 

Depending on how much boost or if any Croods 2 get from LA, Croods 2 will probably remain the bigger film at $56M + whatever LA does.

 

Raya thinking $40-45M + LA, while T&J $35-40M + LA.

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Did WB realise their film constantly having harsh 2nd drop? I wonder if that harsh drop have something to do with their release strategy, thereby disinterest people from paying extra to cinema, and i doubt people will subscribe HBO Max for T&J.     

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

on the contrary.
 

T & J started 64% ahead Raya in first weekend. (14.1 vs 8.5)

Just 20% ahead in Raya 2nd weekend. (6.6 vs 5.5)

3rd weekend Raya would have matched T&J 3rd weekend, but now since LA will open, it will probably grow. (4.1 vs 4.1+)

 

In another sense, comparing the same weekend (s).

 

Raya was ahead 29% (22% pure FSS) in last weekend.

34% ahead this weekend.

Next would have been probably 40-45% or so.

I was talking about monetary gap. Could be even closer the next 3 weeks. 

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4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I was talking about monetary gap. Could be even closer the next 3 weeks. 

Yeah ofc, as the numbers go small, smaller the difference between two will. $10k & $100k has just $90K difference, but one's 10 times compared with say $910k vs $1M.

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44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah ofc, as the numbers go small, smaller the difference between two will. $10k & $100k has just $90K difference, but one's 10 times compared with say $910k vs $1M.

Lol, I’m just pointing out the gap is getting smaller and therefore it be could be close or at least interesting for #1 over the next 3 weeks. 

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