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93rd Academy Awards Discussion Thread | Nomadland, Hopkins, McDormand, Zhao, Youn, Kaluuya win

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3 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Neither of the two screenplay winners is going win so that’s a moot point. 

Promising Young Woman has a pretty decent shot. So does The Father (but less than PYW), due to British support and momentum due to the recent release. Both films also have a really good shot at one of the acting categories.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Promising Young Woman has a pretty decent shot. So does The Father (but less than PYW), due to British support and momentum due to the recent release. 

Nah. Will be between Nomadland, Chicago 7, and Minari

Edited by HouseOfTheSun
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Also pretty sure Disney only sold out their ad load for the ceremony due to the fact that close to half the ads are from themselves 😂

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Just now, Jamiem said:

Enjoying this oscars much more than the normal inside baseball humour it normally has, much better paced in my opinion.

 

Chloe’s speech was great and awesome for them to get Bong back to present best director.

I actually don't mind the overall pace of this show (it's certainly preferable to how bloated most of the last several ceremonies have become), it's just odd how they aren't really showcasing any of the movies nominated with no clips, etc.

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Just now, filmlover said:

I actually don't mind the overall pace of this show (it's certainly preferable to how bloated most of the last several ceremonies have become), it's just odd how they aren't really showcasing any of the movies nominated with no clips, etc.

Yeah that’s a fair criticism, focusing more on the cast and crew rather than clip packages bar a couple of categories so far. 

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Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

Nah

If you have actually been following this year's race, it's a yes. I mean I wouldn't be on them winning over Nomadland winning but Nomadland definitely isn't a locked win. There's a pretty good shot at an upset. Cinematography is more likely than Picture.

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1 minute ago, Jamiem said:

Also pretty sure Disney only sold out their ad load for the ceremony due to the fact that close to half the ads are from themselves 😂

Might be by design. Oscars will still drive better ratings than anything that’s not nfl, and they’re in full throttle growth mode so ABCs ad revenue is immaterial 

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1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

If you have actually been following this year's race, it's a yes. I mean I wouldn't be on them winning over Nomadland winning but Nomadland definitely isn't a locked win. There's a pretty good shot at an upset. Cinematography is more likely than Picture.

If anyone is winning on momentum it’s Minari 

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Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

Might be by design. Oscars will still drive better ratings than anything that’s not nfl, and they’re in full throttle growth mode so ABCs ad revenue is immaterial 

Yeah that probably plays a part, still quite funny though. 

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2 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

If anyone is winning on momentum it’s Minari 

Not really, Minari was at its peak around Feb. That SAG loss hurt it quite a bit. Minari is unlikely to win with just a supporting actress win. I'd put it 4th. The top 3 at this point is probably Nomadland, PYW, and The Father.

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Just now, lorddemaxus said:

Not really, Minari was at its peak around Feb. That SAG loss hurt it quite a bit. Minari is unlikely to win with just a supporting actor win. I'd put it 4th. The top 3 at this point is probably Nomadland, PYW, and The Father.

The father is like dead last in betting markets. Promising young women is on the outside looking at the big 3. Very very on the outside. Awards momentum is not the only thing. Social momentum is probably a much bigger influencer. 

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Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

The father is like dead last in betting markets. Promising young women is on the outside looking at the big 3. Very very on the outside. Awards momentum is not the only thing. Social momentum is probably a much bigger influencer. 

True. A Minari win won't be surprising

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7 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

The father is like dead last in betting markets. Promising young women is on the outside looking at the big 3. Very very on the outside. Awards momentum is not the only thing. Social momentum is probably a much bigger influencer. 

By betting markets, you mean goldderby lol? They have Trial at 3rd, eventhough it's going to go home empty handed. Social momentum is barely existent for all the movies nominated. What matters is when the actual voters are watching the movies.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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it's clear they showed director this early so people would already know who was gonna win best picture if they don't wanna stick around for another 1 and a half of this boring ceremony.

 

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1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

By betting markets, you mean goldderby lol? They have Trial at 3rd, eventhough it's going to go home empty handed. Social momentum is barely existent for all the movies nominated. What matters is when the actual voters are watching the movies.

Nope. Like 3 other sites 

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