WrathOfHan Posted September 4, 2021 Share Posted September 4, 2021 Soho's not happening above the line. There might be below the line potential like Baby Driver, but it depends how the competition stacks up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 3 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: Feels like Toronto People's Choice is going to be a big boost to something. WB is cuckoo if they don't add King Richard to the last set of announcements there - has People's Choice winner written all over it. Belfast has a shot too - def more loved rn by normies than most Very Online critics. Given modern Oscar politics, it's probably better for something mainstream like King Richard not to put too much of a target on its back by being an early frontrunner. Nomadland managed to go wire-to-wire, but I think this will be a more typical season where something shinier will come along when voters really start watching everything. I'm looking forward to Nightmare Alley, but if it's faithful to the book, a Best Picture or lead acting win would be IMO extremely surprising. It's just not what today's Academy seems to reward with the top prizes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 So seems like Dune and Last Night in Soho are gonna be "techs or nothing" contenders at best. Was really hoping that the latter would surprise and become a major contender as a genre title, but it's ok, Queen Anya's Oscar breakthrough isn't too far off at this point anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 I still think Dune can make it. Year of 10 nominations. Villeneuve is respected enough by Hollywood, I'm sure his buddies will be appreciative of fact he directed an unfilmable passion project. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 (edited) The French Dispatch is getting destroyed by basic American critics who saw it at Telluride. Guys like Scott Mantz (who btw aligns with Oscar voter opinions and loved stuff like Green Book) hated this. Personally more excited because this sounds like Anderson's best. Edited September 5, 2021 by lorddemaxus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Soho's not happening above the line. When was Soho ever happening above the line. It's an Edgar Wright genre movie 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 45 minutes ago, 4815162342 said: When was Soho ever happening above the line. It's an Edgar Wright genre movie Baby Driver did seem to come really close in 2017 considering it earned a Best Film Editing nomination so there was definitely support for it. At the very least, it was in the Top 15 that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 9 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: I still think Dune can make it. Year of 10 nominations. Villeneuve is respected enough by Hollywood, I'm sure his buddies will be appreciative of fact he directed an unfilmable passion project. Agreed, especially now that more reviews have dropped and it's not as divisive as it initially seemed. Let's not forget Villeneuve got a BAFTA nom for 2049. I'll probably drop it to the bottom half in my next predictions, but it's still in the race. 2 hours ago, 4815162342 said: When was Soho ever happening above the line. It's an Edgar Wright genre movie Focus seemed to be giving it a big push between its release date and festival placements. Belfast is probably their #1 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 it's release date? releasing a horror movie at halloween means it's an awards play now? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Belfast is getting raves from the normie types and this thread seems to be way underestimating it - it has always been Focus' main contender, with a prime release date and Telluride run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said: Belfast is getting raves from the normie types and this thread seems to be way underestimating it - it has always been Focus' main contender, with a prime release date and Telluride run. Once it wins TIFF People's Choice it'll start being in the top 5 for many 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Once it wins TIFF People's Choice it'll start being in the top 5 for many If King Richard doesn't move to TIFF, it probably starts as the favorite! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 I probably should just wait until Last Duel and TIFF to update my predictions, but because it is raining and I'm procrastinating knocking doors.... Previously: Picture 1. Nightmare Alley 2. King Richard 3. Soggy Bottom (or whatever they call it) 4. Power of the Dog 5. The Lost Daughter 6. Dune 7. Don't Look Up 8. Cyrano 9. Spencer 10. The Tragedy of Macbeth Now, after Venice/Telluride Picture 1. King Richard 2. Nightmare Alley 3. Soggy Bottom (or whatever they call it) 4. Belfast 5. Don't Look Up 6. Power of the Dog 7. Dune 8. A Hero 9. Spencer 10. The Tragedy of Macbeth Swapped Lost Daughter and Cyrano out, even though I still have Colman and Dinklage getting acting noms for them. Moved Belfast from first honorable mention to top five. Heard some things about Don't Look Up that made me want to move it up. Def think a blockbuster gets nominated this year so still listing Dune but was very, very tempted to put No Time To Die. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 I think if Bond or Eternals is particularly well-reviewed it can certainly get knocked out, but there's still a solid case for Dune. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 I'm not so sure about Bond because MGM will have PTA, Ridley Scott and Cyrano still and so much money was already lost by the Bond delays. will they really invest in an awards campaign? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 I doubt Bond's going for an awards play. Not really sure what it would get besides cinematography and sound. It will also be completely overshadowed by Dune at the BAFTAs (who love Villeneuve and the brits seem to be espescially loving Dune). Eternals still feels like a complete wildcard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Eternals might have had a shot if it released early like Black Panther. the year long buzz made it into a contender and challenged Disney to campaign it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Why is Searchlight insisting on taking French Dispatch everywhere when it's very clearly "this had Oscar buzz" at this point. Nightmare Alley will probably entirely skip the festival circuit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: Why is Searchlight insisting on taking French Dispatch everywhere when it's very clearly "this had Oscar buzz" at this point. Nightmare Alley will probably entirely skip the festival circuit. 87% with nearly 40 reviews on RT is hardly enough to bury a movie yet (especially one that is still in the running for techs). Nightmare Alley skipping the festivals isn't much of a surprise since it doesn't really need them (as GDT's follow-up to The Shape of Water featuring a cast full of notable actors so it's destined to have plenty of awareness surrounding it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 So, the new PTA is not called Soggy Bottom but Licorice Pizza (a real SoCal record store back in the day). It has me thinking, how many Best Picture winners have quirky/unusual titles? Oscar voters can have all kinds of hangups and I can definitely imagine some Anonymous Oscar Ballot cranks dismissing a "Soggy Bottom" out of hand: "I didn't even watch it. I just can't take that seriously. What were they thinking: Wet Ass? In my day, 'Oscar movies' had serious titles!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
