Ethan Hunt Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said: So, the new PTA is not called Soggy Bottom but Licorice Pizza (a real SoCal record store back in the day). It has me thinking, how many Best Picture winners have quirky/unusual titles? Oscar voters can have all kinds of hangups and I can definitely imagine some Anonymous Oscar Ballot cranks dismissing a "Soggy Bottom" out of hand: "I didn't even watch it. I just can't take that seriously. What were they thinking: Wet Ass? In my day, 'Oscar movies' had serious titles!" not gonna lie. Licorice Pizza seems like a crazier, more eyebrow raising title than Soggy Bottom lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 This sounds like Inherent Vice PTA which I'm cool with but don't see it being a player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Glad they changed the title since there's only one Soggy Bottom and it's the Soggy Bottom Boys. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 As someone who went to school in Foggy Bottom, I wholeheartedly approve of this name change. Licorice Pizza still also kind of a weird name though tbh. Few things can top the simple majesty of Phantom Thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Now that almost everything from the September fests has premiered (Tammy Faye is probably the only major one left), new predictions for the top 20 in BP: 1. Nightmare Alley 2. Licorice Pizza 3. Belfast 4. The Power of the Dog 5. Spencer 6. House of Gucci 7. Dune 8. Parallel Mothers 9. Don't Look Up 10. The Tragedy of Macbeth --------------------------------- 11. King Richard 12. Cyrano 13. West Side Story 14. The Lost Daughter 15. The Last Duel 16. The Humans 17. C'mon, C'mon 18. The French Dispatch 19. CODA 20. No Time to Die The top 3 in Picture would also be my top 3 in Director. Replace Larrain and possibly Campion with 1-2 of Scott, Villeneuve, and Almodovar for the rest of the category. I'm feeling a little colder on Don't Look Up after the trailer. It looks like a 00s McKay comedy with political messaging rather than Big Short/Vice. The rumored NYFF premiere may or may not help. The Last Duel has major spoiler potential, and I wouldn't count it out yet even if initial reviews are a bit mixed (RT and Meta have been steadily climbing though). If it sparks a conversation, it's not fading away, especially with Gucci. Comer also stands strong in a competitive year for Actress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 I'm not ready to rule out Last Duel based on today's reviews, I'll say that. It depends alot on box office and how Damon and Affleck handle the press tour without sticking their foots in mouth, though. True story: Gladiator is at 77% on RT. Alot of epic, big swing movies don't end up as high as you think. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Now that almost everything from the September fests has premiered (Tammy Faye is probably the only major one left), new predictions for the top 20 in BP: 1. Nightmare Alley 2. Licorice Pizza 3. Belfast 4. The Power of the Dog 5. Spencer 6. House of Gucci 7. Dune 8. Parallel Mothers 9. Don't Look Up 10. The Tragedy of Macbeth --------------------------------- 11. King Richard 12. Cyrano 13. West Side Story 14. The Lost Daughter 15. The Last Duel 16. The Humans 17. C'mon, C'mon 18. The French Dispatch 19. CODA 20. No Time to Die The top 3 in Picture would also be my top 3 in Director. Replace Larrain and possibly Campion with 1-2 of Scott, Villeneuve, and Almodovar for the rest of the category. I'm feeling a little colder on Don't Look Up after the trailer. It looks like a 00s McKay comedy with political messaging rather than Big Short/Vice. The rumored NYFF premiere may or may not help. The Last Duel has major spoiler potential, and I wouldn't count it out yet even if initial reviews are a bit mixed (RT and Meta have been steadily climbing though). If it sparks a conversation, it's not fading away, especially with Gucci. Comer also stands strong in a competitive year for Actress. You should remove the first 1 in front of that King Richard ranking. It is the only film I am 100 percent sure is getting nominated at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 I accept Nightmare Alley as no1 only in the sense that sight unseen it's the most likely to be nominated across the board, but looking at history it feels like a longshot for actually winning just because it's not as common as I thought a big name director winning BP more than once. Certainly much less common than getting a second BD oscar. The most likelier path if Nightmare Alley is a top contender, is Del Toro getting even with his buddies at BD, maybe Cooper getting his "it's time" oscar but eventually losing the big one to whatever is the other top contender that will have won screenplay or sth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 i think either will smith or ben cum will win best actor. and then maybe cooper wins supporting for the PTA if both his movies hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 13 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: I'm not ready to rule out Last Duel based on today's reviews, I'll say that. It depends alot on box office and how Damon and Affleck handle the press tour without sticking their foots in mouth, though. True story: Gladiator is at 77% on RT. Alot of epic, big swing movies don't end up as high as you think. I'd be willing to predict Comer, Driver, Production Design, Costume Design, and Sound for Last Duel rn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 based on not feeling confident about anything else I'm just gonna bet on this being PTA's year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 (edited) Venice winners: Golden Lion: Happening (unanimous vote) Grand Jury: The Hand of God Special Jury: Il Buco Actor: John Arcilla Actress: Penelope Cruz Director: Jane Campion Screenplay: The Lost Daughter Spencer got shut out Edited September 11, 2021 by WrathOfHan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Spencer getting shutout is probably not good for BP chances. Stewart can still win, though, because her comp will be... Chastain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Penelope Cruz's win is going to be something that helps her on her path to getting nominated for sure. France has a few options for what they submit as their International Feature candidate (Benedetta, Titane), but since Happening won the Golden Lion, they might think about selecting it over the others as their "safer choice" (Les Miserables over Portrait of a Lady on Fire, etc.). The Hand of God, Jane Campion, and The Lost Daughter benefit from this as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Lost Daughter probably sealed up a slot in Adapted Screenplay. Writers will appreciate her adapting Ferrante and she'll win many breakthrough director prizes. I think Sorrentino and Trier will be contending for a Director spot. Campion is totally in. PTA, I truly think might have his moment finally. And that's not fandom speaking! All the buzz points to a very accessible and fun film with romance and a LA/Hollywood setting that will appeal to voters. It's not a film about Scientology or a Pynchon adaptation. Cruz has a really good shot now. Comer took a big hit. Only really Stewart is safe. Chastain will be reviewed tomorrow, I believe. I only feel confident predicting these in BP now: Belfast Don't Look Up Dune King Richard Licorice Pizza Nightmare Alley Power of the Dog West Side Story Last 2 spots: CODA. Macbeth. Worst Person in the World Dark Horses: Cmon Cmon. Spencer. I think Almodovar will be an Actress/Foreign thing only. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 I do think, from what the buzz is on the movie and from the frontrunner-less field we have so far, that this is probably the best chance we're gonna get of a PTA movie winning Best Picture. Still have King Richard ahead of it but I'd move it up to number two, and frankly Richard skipping Toronto and New York kind of takes away the advantage of festival circuit, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Sounds like an absolute beautiful knockout for PTA https://theplaylist.net/licorice-pizza-breakdown-20210911/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 After seeing it, Power of Dog has 0% chance at winning. Belfast and King Richard will absolutely beat it. And of course, possibly PTA. 2% chance at winning Director. Campion uses distance well to heighten imposing physicality, but that distance is why this simmering film will not connect as a consensus choice. It meanders, dictated by mood and atmosphere. But since film will never win BP, she won’t be close to winning Director. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: After seeing it Watching it tomorrow night. Wondering if you watched it the same way I will. Edited September 12, 2021 by lorddemaxus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 Reviews for The Humans are very good. Not sold on Picture yet but considering the weak category Jenkins a real Supporting Actor contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...