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Eric Atreides

Best Picture Predictions - 2021

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1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

So, the new PTA is not called Soggy Bottom but Licorice Pizza (a real SoCal record store back in the day). It has me thinking, how many Best Picture winners have quirky/unusual titles? Oscar voters can have all kinds of hangups and I can definitely imagine some Anonymous Oscar Ballot cranks dismissing a "Soggy Bottom" out of hand: "I didn't even watch it. I just can't take that seriously. What were they thinking: Wet Ass? In my day, 'Oscar movies' had serious titles!" 

not gonna lie. Licorice Pizza seems like a crazier, more eyebrow raising title than Soggy Bottom lol

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Now that almost everything from the September fests has premiered (Tammy Faye is probably the only major one left), new predictions for the top 20 in BP:

 

1. Nightmare Alley

2. Licorice Pizza

3. Belfast

4. The Power of the Dog

5. Spencer

6. House of Gucci

7. Dune

8. Parallel Mothers

9. Don't Look Up

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth

---------------------------------

11. King Richard

12. Cyrano

13. West Side Story

14. The Lost Daughter

15. The Last Duel

16. The Humans

17. C'mon, C'mon

18. The French Dispatch

19. CODA

20. No Time to Die

 

 

The top 3 in Picture would also be my top 3 in Director. Replace Larrain and possibly Campion with 1-2 of Scott, Villeneuve, and Almodovar for the rest of the category.

 

I'm feeling a little colder on Don't Look Up after the trailer. It looks like a 00s McKay comedy with political messaging rather than Big Short/Vice. The rumored NYFF premiere may or may not help.

 

The Last Duel has major spoiler potential, and I wouldn't count it out yet even if initial reviews are a bit mixed (RT and Meta have been steadily climbing though). If it sparks a conversation, it's not fading away, especially with Gucci. Comer also stands strong in a competitive year for Actress.

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I'm not ready to rule out Last Duel based on today's reviews, I'll say that. It depends alot on box office and how Damon and Affleck handle the press tour without sticking their foots in mouth, though. 

 

True story: Gladiator is at 77% on RT. Alot of  epic, big swing movies don't end up as high as you think.

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4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Now that almost everything from the September fests has premiered (Tammy Faye is probably the only major one left), new predictions for the top 20 in BP:

 

1. Nightmare Alley

2. Licorice Pizza

3. Belfast

4. The Power of the Dog

5. Spencer

6. House of Gucci

7. Dune

8. Parallel Mothers

9. Don't Look Up

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth

---------------------------------

11. King Richard

12. Cyrano

13. West Side Story

14. The Lost Daughter

15. The Last Duel

16. The Humans

17. C'mon, C'mon

18. The French Dispatch

19. CODA

20. No Time to Die

 

 

The top 3 in Picture would also be my top 3 in Director. Replace Larrain and possibly Campion with 1-2 of Scott, Villeneuve, and Almodovar for the rest of the category.

 

I'm feeling a little colder on Don't Look Up after the trailer. It looks like a 00s McKay comedy with political messaging rather than Big Short/Vice. The rumored NYFF premiere may or may not help.

 

The Last Duel has major spoiler potential, and I wouldn't count it out yet even if initial reviews are a bit mixed (RT and Meta have been steadily climbing though). If it sparks a conversation, it's not fading away, especially with Gucci. Comer also stands strong in a competitive year for Actress.

You should remove the first 1 in front of that King Richard ranking. It is the only film I am 100 percent sure is getting nominated at this point.

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I accept Nightmare Alley as no1 only in the sense that sight unseen it's the most likely to be nominated across the board, but looking at history it feels like a longshot for actually winning just because it's not as common as I thought a big name director winning BP more than once. Certainly much less common than getting a second BD oscar. 

 

The most likelier path if Nightmare Alley is a top contender, is Del Toro getting even with his buddies at BD, maybe Cooper getting his "it's time" oscar but eventually losing the big one to whatever is the other top contender that will have won screenplay or sth. 

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13 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm not ready to rule out Last Duel based on today's reviews, I'll say that. It depends alot on box office and how Damon and Affleck handle the press tour without sticking their foots in mouth, though. 

 

True story: Gladiator is at 77% on RT. Alot of  epic, big swing movies don't end up as high as you think.

 

I'd be willing to predict Comer, Driver, Production Design, Costume Design, and Sound for Last Duel rn

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Venice winners:

 

Golden Lion: Happening (unanimous vote)

Grand Jury: The Hand of God

Special Jury: Il Buco

Actor: John Arcilla

Actress: Penelope Cruz

Director: Jane Campion

Screenplay: The Lost Daughter

 

Spencer got shut out :jeb!: 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Penelope Cruz's win is going to be something that helps her on her path to getting nominated for sure. France has a few options for what they submit as their International Feature candidate (BenedettaTitane), but since Happening won the Golden Lion, they might think about selecting it over the others as their "safer choice" (Les Miserables over Portrait of a Lady on Fire, etc.). The Hand of God, Jane Campion, and The Lost Daughter benefit from this as well.

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Lost Daughter probably sealed up a slot in Adapted Screenplay. Writers will appreciate her adapting Ferrante and she'll win many breakthrough director prizes.

 

I think Sorrentino and Trier will be contending for a Director spot. Campion is totally in.

 

PTA, I truly think might have his moment finally. And that's not fandom speaking! All the buzz points to a very accessible and fun film with romance and a LA/Hollywood setting that will appeal to voters. It's not a film about Scientology or a Pynchon adaptation.

 

Cruz has a really good shot now. Comer took a big hit. Only really Stewart is safe. Chastain will be reviewed tomorrow, I believe. 

 

I only feel confident predicting these in BP now:

Belfast

Don't Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

Power of the Dog

West Side Story

 

Last 2 spots: CODA. Macbeth. Worst Person in the World

 

Dark Horses: Cmon Cmon. Spencer.

 

I think Almodovar will be an Actress/Foreign thing only.

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I do think, from what the buzz is on the movie and from the frontrunner-less field we have so far, that this is probably the best chance we're gonna get of a PTA movie winning Best Picture. Still have King Richard ahead of it but I'd move it up to number two, and frankly Richard skipping Toronto and New York kind of takes away the advantage of festival circuit, 

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After seeing it, Power of Dog has 0% chance at winning. Belfast and King Richard will absolutely beat it. And of course, possibly PTA.

 

2% chance at winning Director. Campion uses distance well to heighten imposing physicality, but that distance is why this simmering film will not connect as a consensus choice. It meanders, dictated by mood and atmosphere. But since film will never win BP, she won’t be close to winning Director. 

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