Jump to content
Eric Madrigal

Best Picture Predictions - 2021

Recommended Posts

I think both Big Short and Vice were sold as timely prestige films with a comedy spin and McKay's comedy past wasn't even mentioned in the marketing. The teaser of Don't Look Up stars with from the director of vice, big short AND anchorman,stepbrothers.

 

I think McKay is trying to go full over the top characters/situations like his earlier films but with a timely subject and a cast full of oscar winners instead of Will Ferell. Doesn't seem to be working judging by that clip.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Next Best Picture confirmed that The Humans is not being submitted for film awards and Showtime will handle TV award campaigns. I guess this means A24 is going all in on C'mon C'mon as their main push since Macbeth is being handled by Apple.

 

Between losing Jenkins and Cooper apparently having a very small role in Licorice Pizza, Supporting Actor is getting thiiiiiiiiin. This could be Dafoe's year if Nightmare Alley doesn't disappoint.

Edited by WrathOfHan
  • Astonished 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Next Best Picture confirmed that The Humans is not being submitted for film awards and Showtime will handle TV award campaigns. I guess this means A24 is going all in on C'mon C'mon as their main push since Macbeth is being handled by Apple.

 

Between losing Jenkins and Cooper apparently having a very small role in Licorice Pizza, Supporting Actor is getting thiiiiiiiiin. This could be Dafoe's year if Nightmare Alley doesn't disappoint.

Alfred Molina

Link to post
Share on other sites

I cannot take credit for this suggestion, but if Supporting Actor is going to be as weak as it seems, then Disney really should set up a campaign for Tony Leung (Shang-Chi), even if it's small. I haven't seen the film, but I hear good things about the performance, and it'd be an excellent way to acknowledge Leung's influential career. But a campaign for The Eternals is something I can see superceding Leung's campaign if that film inexplicably has a bunch of Oscar buzz once it releases.

  • Not Cool 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Dafoe’s role in Nightmare Alley is too small. Even more than Cooper in the PTA

So? People get nominations for small roles all the time. Isn't Hathaway only in like 10 minutes of Les Mis?

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/30/2021 at 1:00 PM, SpiderByte said:

So? People get nominations for small roles all the time. Isn't Hathaway only in like 10 minutes of Les Mis?

This is a ridiculous comparison? Her role in Les Mis is extremely iconic. She has the showcase musical sequence. And she lost a lot of weight for the role. It is a showy performance.

 

Dafoe has none of that going for him. The role does not elevate the lack of screentime

Link to post
Share on other sites

So October update:

 

PICTURE:

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Macbeth

Nightmare Alley

Power of the Dog

West Side Story

ALT: Spencer

 

CODA might be the odd choice but it's a diverse Sundance crowdpleaser with appeal while Spencer might prove too alienating/divisive outside of Spencer

 

DIRECTOR:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

ALT: Joel Coen, Macbeth

 

If Dune really opens over 40m, I think Villeneuve is in--big visual achievement and previous nominee. Not feeling McKay with his 3rd straight when Don't Look Up might be a mess. 

 

ACTOR:

Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

Benedict Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, Macbeth

ALT: Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom

 

Leo is probably the biggest question mark but he's still Leo. Dinklage is a threat but Cyrano might be too underseen/lightweight. Garfield is my spoiler

 

ACTRESS:

Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Frances McDormand, Macbeth

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

ALT: Jessica Chastain, Tammy Faye

 

Chastain will campaign but the buzz for Tammy Faye is already gone. I think this category will gravitate towards more highbrow and passionate performances--Cruz won Venice and Colman just won an Emmy and is still experiencing Oscar afterglow

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Richard Jenkins, The Humans

Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog

ALT: Jared Leto, Gucci

 

Terrible category. I think Driver still stands a chance unless Last Duel reviews get worse/tanks at box office. Cooper might have a small role but looks funny in Licorice Pizza and the movie will be a big deal. Affleck is a wild card but it sounds like a nice role and he seems to still have good will. Disney should campaign Tony Leung

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Cait Balfe, Belfast

Ariana deBose, West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog

Aunjaune Ellis, King Richard

Toni Collette/Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley

ALT: Ruth Negga, Passing

 

Nightmare Alley should get in 1. deBose has the best West Side Story role. Dench will probably be overshadowed by Balfe. Negga can be a critical choice. Marlee Matlin reminds me of Holly Hunter in The Big Sick. Streep always in the mix depending on Don't Look Up

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Belfast

Cmon Cmon

Don't Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

ALT: Worst Person in the World

 

Seems cut and dry. Cmon Cmon is A24's biggest movie this year and Mills is a previous nominee. Almodovar is possible but hasn't been nominated in quite some time.

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

CODA

The Lost Daughter

Macbeth

Nightmare Alley

Power of the Dog

ALT: Dune

 

Not feeling Dune even if it does make BP. Watch out for Eternals? Humans shouldn't be ruled out either but I'm wondering how much of an actual player it'll be. Last Duel will probably miss.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Some big updates today:

 

King Richard is now in Adapted Screenplay because the original script was adapted from Richard Williams' memoir.

Spain has chosen The Boss over Parallel Mothers as their submission for International Feature. The race just became a lot more open.

Edited by WrathOfHan
  • Astonished 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Bring back clips for nominees, a sense of urgency and don't keep Best Actor at the end and things should work themselves out.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, grim22 said:

Bring back clips for nominees, a sense of urgency and don't keep Best Actor at the end and things should work themselves out.

100% positive the debacle of this previous ceremony guarantees they will never change up tradition based on who the perceived frontrunners are ever again.

 

The Will Packer news reminded me that he's produced a handful of Kevin Hart movies too. Second chance at potentially hosting maybe? :lol:

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'm thinking Tiffany Haddish will host?

One of her next projects is a Disney movie (The Haunted Mansion) so if ABC wants a host the connection is already there.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.