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Eric Atreides

Best Picture Predictions - 2021

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20 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Is there a reason House of Gucci dropped from the top of so many lists to not appearing in any categories anymore? Did reactions turn out bad?

Mix of early frontrunner status and festival films overshadowing it. Gucci could still be top 5 once it premieres but the top two is looking solidly Power of The Dog/Belfast with Dune as a likely third. From the seen contenders, I'd probably rank their awards prospects as follows:

 

Tier 1: Power of the Dog, Belfast (frontrunners)

Tier 2: Dune, Tragedy of Macbeth (very likely to get nominated if not remain top 5) 

Tier 3: King Richard, The Lost Daughter (probable nominees but could be fringe if all the unseen contenders are strong)

Tier 4: Spencer, Parallel Mothers, Cyrano, Passing, C'mon C'mon, Mass, The Humans, A Hero, Worst Person, Last Duel, probably one or two others I'm forgetting (fringe)

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Last Duel is a solid box office run from being a real contender in some above the line categories. That's my hot take. Sadly, I don't think that box office is coming. But reception from US based critics and audiences has been much better than Venice.

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Last Duel is a real big test for the prestige films this year. Almost the Oscar version of Shang-Chi lol... sadly, this is not a Marvel movie

 

Older audiences clearly aren't rolling out to theaters so that decimates the Oscar contenders this year. Many of which lack the star power of Affleck, Damon and Driver. Younger audiences will see Halloween during the weekend instead (or Venom again)

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3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Last Duel is a solid box office run from being a real contender in some above the line categories. That's my hot take. Sadly, I don't think that box office is coming. But reception from US based critics and audiences has been much better than Venice.

Agreed. If BOP's tracking holds, it's in danger of a sub-20M gross. 35M+ and Gucci being a strong contender would probably be enough to keep Comer and Driver in the conversation (if not get the latter nominated since Supporting Actor is a wasteland this year).

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3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Agreed. If BOP's tracking holds, it's in danger of a sub-20M gross. 35M+ and Gucci being a strong contender would probably be enough to keep Comer and Driver in the conversation (if not get the latter nominated since Supporting Actor is a wasteland this year).

Yeah, I'm feeling under 10m OW for this and then immediately falling off the 22nd with Dune. 150 minute runtime is a lot. The Venice reviews dinged it and there might not be enough time to refocus on these recent better reviews. 

 

I'd say like 8m? 

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Globe nominations:

 

DRAMA:

Belfast

Dune

Nightmare Alley

Power of the Dog

Spencer

 

Watch out for Last Duel. They love Ridley Scott. Spencer has an international appeal with Diana. King Richard probably too American.

 

DRAMA ACTOR:

Bradley Cooper

Benedict Cumberbatch

Adam Driver, Gucci

Will Smith

Denzel Washington

 

Who else? Could they go wild like Nic Cage in Pig? Damon in Stillwater?

 

DRAMA ACTRESS:

Cate Blanchett

Jodie Comer

Penelope Cruz

Lady Gaga

Kristen Stewart

 

Tough category. Olivia Colman is loved and could make it. Frances McDormand always a possibility. Respect flopped but Hudson will campaign hard.

 

COMEDY/MUSICAL:

Being the Ricardos

Don't Look Up

In the Heights

Licorice Pizza

West Side Story

 

I think Cyrano and Tick Tick Boom will be more Actor noms. Everybody's Talking About Jamie has no buzz.

 

COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTOR:

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom

Joaquin Phoenix, Cmon Cmon

Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

 

A24 will keep Phoenix in Comedy since Denzel is Drama. Will they dare nominate Ben Platt or Ansel Elgort? Bardem in Being the Ricardos also possible.

 

COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Jennifer Lawrence, Don't Look Up

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

 

Chastain can be Drama but Searchlight should go for easy nom. She sings in movie, too! They rarely nominate Disney so no for Emma Stone and Cruella. Camila Camelo for Cinderella is a scary possibility. Haley Bennett for Cyrano if Dinklage does not steal all buzz.

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Ben Affleck, The Last Duel/The Tender Bar

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Jared Leto, Gucci

Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog

 

Who even else? Richard Jenkins? Someone from Don't Look Up?

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Cait Balfe, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog

Judi Dench, Belfast

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Ruth Negga, Passing

 

Someone from Nightmare Alley. Streep wasn't even nominated for The Prom but Corden was. Dakota Johnson is campaigning for lost Daughter.

 

DIRECTOR:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

 

Ridley Scott... watch out

 

SCREENPLAY:

Being the Riccardos(Aaron Sorkin)

Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)

Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro)

Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)

 

They worship Sorkin. Adam McKay can sneak in over Nightmare Alley if Don't Look Up isn't bad. Damon and Affleck getting in here for Last Duel would be a very Globes move. 

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I know that potential Oscar nominees have to submit themselves for consideration but I guess the same isn't true for the Golden Globes? Don't they run the risk of stars publicly rehashing their disdain for the HPFA? They have their little press conference or whatever, and the next day the winners are like, "We would very much like to be excluded from this narrative..." 

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1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

 

I know that potential Oscar nominees have to submit themselves for consideration but I guess the same isn't true for the Golden Globes? Don't they run the risk of stars publicly rehashing their disdain for the HPFA? They have their little press conference or whatever, and the next day the winners are like, "We would very much like to be excluded from this narrative..." 

Just waiting for the announcement that Pia Zadora will be announcing the winners in all categories.

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I think a few more contenders than that will surpass $30 million, but agree the box office prospects of this year's awards bait aren't looking great overall. Can In the Heights make an Oscar comeback? I feel like the controversy it ran across wouldn't exactly bother the crowd that voted for Green Book.. 

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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I was actually thinking that after The Last Duel's bomb (which even makes releases like Cry Macho look good in comparison considering that it was day and date). But I feel like the damage is done espescially with the backlash it faced right after it released. WB's also ditched it and focusing on Dune and King Richard now (most likely pushing for Ellis over Merediz for supporting actress).

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12 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I was actually thinking that after The Last Duel's bomb (which even makes releases like Cry Macho look good in comparison considering that it was day and date). But I feel like the damage is done espescially with the backlash it faced right after it released. WB's also ditched it and focusing on Dune and King Richard now (most likely pushing for Ellis over Merediz for supporting actress).

Ferguson too for that matter.

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In the Heights still has a chance in Original Song with "Home All Summer" (possible two LMM nominations depending on the Encanto songs) and it's likely getting nominated at the No1Curr Globes given how dire the Comedy/Musical categories would be this year even if they hadn't gotten themselves cancelled (Anthony Ramos is definitely getting nominated before someone like Ben Platt in a certified all-around disaster). But yeah, they won't be resurrecting a major money-loser from the summer otherwise.

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Belfast been winning a bunch of audience awards and feels like frontrunner atm. Kinda hoping the film flops so hard that it changes the awards conversation around it, at least so that the race is more interesting.

Still feels too light and inconsequential to win BP. Imitation Game won lots of audience scores. It’s the front runner but if it flops and Licorice Pizza (or Nightmare Alley) deliver, watch out 

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I get the sense this is gonna be the second year in a row where the box office isn't gonna be much of a factor in this year's Oscar race, at least not now when it's becoming abundantly clear that any movie that's expected to appeal primarily to audiences over the age of 35 won't be making any money in theaters this year.

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