Best Picture Predictions - 2021

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

17 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Still feels too light and inconsequential to win BP. Imitation Game won lots of audience scores. It’s the front runner but if it flops and Licorice Pizza (or Nightmare Alley) deliver, watch out 

Isn't Belfast set around The Troubles? It's apparently feel-good and through a child's eyes largely, but that seems more consequential than "the travails of 1970s Hollywood teens" or "shady carnival hucksters". With Nightmare Alley, if I turn my head and squint, I can see how there could be a plot point that maybe tangentially touches on a major social issue in the (US) news now, but that doesn't make the movie "important" in an awards bait way. And the main characters are all kind of villainous, too, unless Nightmare Alley v2.0 is innovative in some way or makes all the money, I don't see how it wins.

 

19 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Belfast been winning a bunch of audience awards and feels like frontrunner atm. Kinda hoping the film flops so hard that it changes the awards conversation around it, at least so that the race is more interesting.

 

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

I get the sense this is gonna be the second year in a row where the box office isn't gonna be much of a factor in this year's Oscar race, at least not now when it's becoming abundantly clear that any movie that's expected to appeal primarily to audiences over the age of 35 won't be making any money in theaters this year.

Yeah, if everything is a flop, maybe nothing is? But if something baity does actually become a hit in this climate (however that is defined), wouldn't voters rush to reward it? In recent years they haven't really cared about box office in terms of winners, but in the before times, you still had "grown up" success stories like 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Little Women. At the moment it's looking pretty grim for adult dramas in movie theaters, maybe the first contender to $50 million has Best Picture wrapped up. 

Edited October 20, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Isn't Belfast set around The Troubles? It's apparently feel-good and through a child's eyes largely, but that seems more consequential than "the travails of 1970s Hollywood teens" or "shady carnival hucksters". With Nightmare Alley, if I turn my head and squint, I can see how there could be a plot point that maybe tangentially touches on a major social issue in the (US) news now, but that doesn't make the movie "important" in an awards bait way. And the main characters are all kind of villainous, too, unless Nightmare Alley v2.0 is innovative in some way or makes all the money, I don't see how it wins.

 

 

Yeah, if everything is a flop, maybe nothing is? But if something baity does actually become a hit in this climate (however that is defined), wouldn't voters rush to reward it? In recent years they haven't really cared about box office in terms of winners, but in the before times, you still had "grown up" success stories like 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Little Women. At the moment it's looking pretty grim for adult dramas in movie theaters, maybe the first contender to $50 million has Best Picture wrapped up. 

Belfast is an extremely middlebrow and inconsequential film regardless of the political context. It might be crowdpleasing but reviews are pretty average and the only recent winner it's like would be Green Book. But Green Book was a major Dreamworks release with 2 of the best actors alive in a buddy comedy about racism and tolerance. 

 

Birdman was about the travails of actors and won BP. Shape of Water was about fish sex and won BP. A film doesn't really need to necessarily touch on a major social issue to win BP if the subject is Academy fodder ala Licorice Pizza. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

I get the sense this is gonna be the second year in a row where the box office isn't gonna be much of a factor in this year's Oscar race, at least not now when it's becoming abundantly clear that any movie that's expected to appeal primarily to audiences over the age of 35 won't be making any money in theaters this year.

I think box office matters with some films because Belfast is opening pretty wide in about 3 weeks. When it flops how can it maintain buzz for another 4 months? Focus would need to mount a major campaign about how Branagh made a personal film and it's sweet and charming. But who cares? Branagh of all people is going to ride a wave of sentiment to BP with a film that has a 78 on Metacritic and 85 on Rotten Tomatoes with a 7.8 average? How can it be a crowdpleaser if crowds aren't watching it. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Belfast is an extremely middlebrow and inconsequential film regardless of the political context. It might be crowdpleasing but reviews are pretty average and the only recent winner it's like would be Green Book. But Green Book was a major Dreamworks release with 2 of the best actors alive in a buddy comedy about racism and tolerance. 

 

Birdman was about the travails of actors and won BP. Shape of Water was about fish sex and won BP. A film doesn't really need to necessarily touch on a major social issue to win BP if the subject is Academy fodder ala Licorice Pizza. 

Of course, movies don't have to be about important issues to win Best Picture. It's a combination of factors and depends on the competition in a year.

 

Birdman was about show business, but it helped that they liked it more than Boyhood, a critical fave that the Honest Ballot types found overrated. 

 

On paper, Dunkirk made sense as the one to finally get Nolan Best Director and Picture: important subject, excellent reviews and box office success. But character development wasn't a strong suit (who will the voters relate to?), critics cooled on it by the end of the year, and more than one Anonymous Voter found the timeline confusing. It was never more than an also-ran.

 

Get Out? Horror (an automatic uphill battle with the Academy) and a critique of white liberalism, which may have hit too close to home for some voters. Lady Bird? Female protagonist who isn't the most "likeable", both things Best Picture often doesn't reward (Nomadland winning is near miraculous but happened in a very unusual year). So Fish Sex it was, because overall, they either liked it more/disliked it less than the competition. But in a different year where an "important" movie has more emotional resonance, maybe another movie being "likeable" isn't enough for the win. 

 

So, Licorice Pizza is "Oscar friendly": so was Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which was about grown-ups in show business and starred movie stars and made a lot of money. It was what, no better than third for Best Picture by the end? Different year, different race, of course, and maybe a movie led by teen characters played by movie newcomers can nab the top prize. We'll have to see how much voters care for it, ultimately.

 

We already know film festival crowds are liking Belfast, as it's won multiple audience awards. Not the same voters as AMPAS voters but not totally different, either. I really don't think awards voters are checking Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic before submitting their ballots. 

Edited October 20, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

They're not checking critic scores but it's obvious Belfast critically and quality-wise is a major step down from the BP winners of last decade. Add that to the fact it's very small, makes BP an uphill battle still. films can win multiple audience awards without getting the prize--Jojo Rabbit, Room, Imitation Game, Three Billboards.

 

And I don't think Licorice Pizza will be much like Hollywood. Hollywood was still a 3 hour plotless Tarantino film with divisive action. LP looks like PTA's most accessible and warmest film in a long time. He has 8 nominations and 2 for director--he's most nominated filmmaker without a win. I think it can strike a perfect combo of quality + accessibility + narrative. 

[WrathOfHan]

48 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

They're not checking critic scores but it's obvious Belfast critically and quality-wise is a major step down from the BP winners of last decade. Add that to the fact it's very small, makes BP an uphill battle still. films can win multiple audience awards without getting the prize--Jojo Rabbit, Room, Imitation Game, Three Billboards.

 

And I don't think Licorice Pizza will be much like Hollywood. Hollywood was still a 3 hour plotless Tarantino film with divisive action. LP looks like PTA's most accessible and warmest film in a long time. He has 8 nominations and 2 for director--he's most nominated filmmaker without a win. I think it can strike a perfect combo of quality + accessibility + narrative. 

I don't understand why you're saying Belfast is too slight to win BP when Licorice Pizza has even lower stakes and scale.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

20 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't understand why you're saying Belfast is too slight to win BP when Licorice Pizza has even lower stakes and scale.

For me, it’s Belfast vs Licorice Pizza but I think Licorice Pizza will have a lot more going on and the whole framing device being about the industry with some political elements makes it palpable for voters. It’s based off a real life producer who is a PGA member and friend to Tom Hanks. Lucille Ball supposedly has a cameo role. Bradley Cooper as Jon Peters is brilliant casting. PTA is one of the most beloved filmmakers and if he makes another great film—one that’s sweet—I think voters can finally reward him. 

[CoolioD1]

18 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Lucille Ball supposedly has a cameo role. 

wow that would be impressive.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

wow that would be impressive.

Yeah that’s what actors are for!

[WrathOfHan]

This will be the still that gets posted on every awards article this season if Ricardos doesn't suck. Get ready.

 

[Cmasterclay]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

They're not checking critic scores but it's obvious Belfast critically and quality-wise is a major step down from the BP winners of last decade. Add that to the fact it's very small, makes BP an uphill battle still. films can win multiple audience awards without getting the prize--Jojo Rabbit, Room, Imitation Game, Three Billboards.

 

And I don't think Licorice Pizza will be much like Hollywood. Hollywood was still a 3 hour plotless Tarantino film with divisive action. LP looks like PTA's most accessible and warmest film in a long time. He has 8 nominations and 2 for director--he's most nominated filmmaker without a win. I think it can strike a perfect combo of quality + accessibility + narrative. 

Have you seen the movie?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Have you seen the movie?

I haven't seen anything major but Power of Dog. Just predicting off everything I've read about the movies so I can be very wrong and off lol

 

I also forgot to mention but I do think King Richard can dip into and steal some of the crowdpleaser votes from Belfast. Williams sisters are recognizable icons, Smith is one of the biggest box office stars and it has a rooting factor dealing with Black female athletes and racism within sports. It wasn't even at TIFF for whatever reason and we know that's almost guaranteed to win at least 1 Oscar for Will Smith. Without HBOMAX, it would have been a big financial hit, as well. Reviews are about similar, too

Edited October 21, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

How can it be a crowdpleaser if crowds aren't watching it. 

Well, as @BoxOfficeFangrl pointed out, if every contender is gonna find themselves playing to mostly empty auditoriums, it might not matter since this is another year where all the nominees are looking to be pandemic victims at the box office.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Well, as @BoxOfficeFangrl pointed out, if every contender is gonna find themselves playing to mostly empty auditoriums, it might not matter since this is another year where all the nominees are looking to be pandemic victims at the box office.

And like I said, if a film is going wide that is priding itself as a crowdpleaser then flops... how do you expect it to sustain buzz? At least Licorice Pizza is going limited and will have critical support and Nightmare Alley has commercial potential in December. Other films have streaming. Even if something like Spencer flops, that isn't impacting Kristen Stewart's Actress win

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

13 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I haven't seen anything major but Power of Dog. Just predicting off everything I've read about the movies so I can be very wrong and off lol

 

I also forgot to mention but I do think King Richard can dip into and steal some of the crowdpleaser votes from Belfast. Williams sisters are recognizable icons, Smith is one of the biggest box office stars and it has a rooting factor dealing with Black female athletes and racism within sports. It wasn't even at TIFF for whatever reason and we know that's almost guaranteed to win at least 1 Oscar for Will Smith. Without HBOMAX, it would have been a big financial hit, as well. Reviews are about similar, too

Oh yeah, I can easily see that happening, unless it's "too American" for the new AMPAS. In terms of King Richard's box office, it might draw a somewhat younger and more diverse audience than most of this year's HBO Max dramas, maybe that will help some. I'm not sure how much that matters, being a "crowdpleaser" in the awards world isn't strictly a matter of ticket sales-the voters just have to see the thing and remember how much they like it come ballot time. I guess we'll know for sure that King Richard is a threat when the "Richard Williams: a bad parent, actually" thinkpieces heat up.

Edited October 21, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

Without a pandemic and without HBO Max I think King Richard could have easily done identical numbers to what Wonder pulled in the same release spot 4 years ago, which would likely be enough to secure a "filler" nomination in most years. The way market conditions will cloud awards season again changes everything though.

[SLAM!]

Gotham Award Nominees
 

Best Feature
“The Green Knight”
“The Lost Daughter”
“Passing”
“Pig”
“Test Pattern”

 

Best Documentary Feature
“Ascension”
“Faya Dayi”
“Flee”
“President”
“Summer Of Soul (…Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”

 

Best International Feature
“Azor”
“Drive My Car”
“The Souvenir Part II”
“Titane”
“What Do We See When We Look at the Sky?”
“The Worst Person In The World”

 

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award
Maggie Gyllenhaal for “The Lost Daughter”
Edson Oda for “Nine Days”
Rebecca Hall for “Passing”
Emma Seligman for “Shiva Baby”
Shatara Michelle Ford for “Test Pattern”

 

Best Screenplay
“The Card Counter,” Paul Schrader
“El Planeta,” Amalia Ulman
“The Green Knight,” David Lowery
“The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal
“Passing,” Rebecca Hall
“Red Rocket,” Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch

 

Outstanding Lead Performance
Olivia Colman in “The Lost Daughter”
Frankie Faison in “The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain”
Michael Greyeyes in “Wild Indian”
Brittany S. Hall in “Test Pattern”
Oscar Isaac in “The Card Counter”
Taylour Paige in “Zola”
Joaquin Phoenix in “C’mon C’mon”
Simon Rex in “Red Rocket”
Lili Taylor in “Paper Spiders”
Tessa Thompson in “Passing”

 

Outstanding Supporting Performance
Reed Birney in “Mass”
Jessie Buckley in “The Lost Daughter”
Colman Domingo in “Zola”
Gaby Hoffmann in “C’mon C’mon”
Troy Kotsur in “CODA”
Marlee Matlin in “CODA”
Ruth Negga in “Passing”

 

Breakthrough Performer
Emilia Jones in “CODA”
Natalie Morales in “Language Lessons”
Rachel Sennott in Shiva Baby”
Suzanna Son in “Red Rocket”
Amalia Ulman in “El Planeta”

 

Breakthrough Series – Long Format (over 40 minutes)
“The Good Lord Bird”
“It’s A Sin”
“Small Axe”
“Squid Game”
“The Underground Railroad”
“The White Lotus”

 

Breakthrough Series – Short Format (under 40 minutes)
“Blindspotting”
“Hacks”
“Reservation Dogs”
“Run the World”
“We Are Lady Parts”

 

Breakthrough Nonfiction Series
“City So Real”
“Exterminate All the Brutes”
“How To with John Wilson”
“Philly D.A.”
“Pride”

 

Outstanding Performance in a New Series
Jennifer Coolidge in “The White Lotus”
Michael Greyeyes in “Rutherford Falls”
Ethan Hawke in “The Good Lord Bird”
Devery Jacobs in “Reservation Dogs”
Lee Jung-jae in “Squid Game”
Thuso Mbedu in “The Underground Railroad”
Jean Smart in “Hacks”
Omar Sy in “Lupin”
Anya Taylor-Joy in “The Queen’s Gambit”
Anjana Vasan in “We Are Lady Parts”

[filmlover]

^ worth mentioning that a lot of movies (King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The French Dispatch, The Harder They Fall, tick tick...Boom!, The Power of the Dog) were all disqualified from competing for anything due to having budgets over $35M.

[DAJK]

On 10/17/2021 at 6:06 PM, lorddemaxus said:

I was actually thinking that after The Last Duel's bomb (which even makes releases like Cry Macho look good in comparison considering that it was day and date). But I feel like the damage is done espescially with the backlash it faced right after it released. WB's also ditched it and focusing on Dune and King Richard now (most likely pushing for Ellis over Merediz for supporting actress).

What controversy?

[WrathOfHan]

The Gothams help boost Lost Daughter's case and possibly Passing too. They've always nominated at least one BP nominee since 2013 with some years having two+.

 

Belfast was eligible for the Gothams but got snubbed entirely. I wouldn't bank on it being a favorite at critics awards this season, which might make it hard for a Picture/Balfe/Supporting Actor narrative to take off.

 

Edited October 22, 2021 by WrathOfHan