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Eric Duncan

Best Picture Predictions - 2021

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Those BIFA nominations are something else--how can you give something 11 nominations yet snub it for Picture, Director and Screenplay? Either they didn't really like it that much, or they can't deny the overall effect while still really,

really hating its primary creative force. I know the politics be tricky with a British awards body, but come on...

 

*

 

The Nightmare Alley FYC is out, Rooney's lead, Cate's supporting, Bradley's also a producer...

 

 

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While I won’t rule out Rooney Mara, I think Blanchett in supporting means the leading actress race gets a little more exciting since one of the perceived powerhouses is out of the race. It’s probably the most competitive category this year, and now there may be a little more wiggle room in the race.

 

And also: Searchlight can now focus on securing Chastain’s nomination for Tammy Faye.

Edited by SLAM!
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The general idea of Blanchett lead/Mara supporting was reliant on the initial synopsis and source material. Blanchett will probably have more screentime than Mara later in the film, but since Blanchett's not in the first act, Mara likely has more overall screentime. Also helps that Blanchett plays an antagonistic character, a favorite for voters in the supporting categories.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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After seeing Spencer, I’d be surprised to see BP nom. It doesn’t play well to older audiences and while it’s an art film, it won’t have passion or acclaim of something like Power of the Dog. RT audience score is 53%.  2m weekend is fine enough, though. Stewart will win because her biggest threat is… Chastain in a bad floppy movie?

 

Beautiful techs and crafts, though. Greenwood should win Score over Zimmer

Edited by BestPicturePlutoNash
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5 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

After seeing Spencer, I’d be surprised to see BP nom. It doesn’t play well to older audiences and while it’s an art film, it won’t have passion or acclaim of something like Power of the Dog. RT audience score is 53%.  2m weekend is fine enough, though. Stewart will win because her biggest threat is… Chastain in a bad floppy movie?

 

Beautiful techs and crafts, though. Greenwood should win Score over Zimmer

4 months until the ceremony is a long time and leaves plenty of room for someone in a stronger movie (meaning a BP nominee) to emerge as the frontrunner. 3 of the 10 Actress winners of the 2010s were from non-BP nominees (Blanchett, Moore, Zellweger) but all of those people were considered truly undeniable forces throughout the entirety of their respective awards seasons. We'll have to see how this season shapes up when COVID will still be very much impacting it.

Edited by filmlover
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57 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Gucci is going to be very negatively received. Hopefully if it goes down, it brings Jared Leto with it

 

And Licorice Pizza is definitely not just Screenplay... lol..

Is that Gucci thing based on anything concrete? Between that and the Belfast thing, you have alot of strong and definitive takes on movies you haven't seen.

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27 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Is that Gucci thing based on anything concrete? Between that and the Belfast thing, you have alot of strong and definitive takes on movies you haven't seen.

World of Reel has been leaking a few critics reactions (without consent in some cases which is unethical as fuck) that boil down to the following:

 

Positive: Owen Gleiberman 

Mixed-Negative: David Rooney (said Driver is good but Pacino and Leto are downright awful and that it seemed Ridley didn't have much control over the story)

Heavy Pan: Matt Neglia, Jeff Wells, Sasha Stone

 

Two more anonymous critics also didn't like it. 2/3 of the heavy pans are from... questionable people. Apparently the Academy screening went very well, so it might just be a divide between critics and voters.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Is that Gucci thing based on anything concrete? Between that and the Belfast thing, you have alot of strong and definitive takes on movies you haven't seen.

I don't really appreciate this attitude. I know how to separate personal opinion from predictions. I did not like Stewart in Spencer but I still think she'll win the Oscar based on reviews and role. Belfast personally looks too cutesy to me but I always had it as a contender despite that. I just don't think the Academy will go basic in BP since outside of Green Book, they really haven't unless the Nov/Dec releases such as Licorice Pizza and Nightmare Alley underperform. 

 

I know of critics and pundits who have seen Gucci and weren't fans. You're going to see many bad reviews from critics soon. Anne Thompson only predicts what she has seen on gold Derby and removed Jared Leto from her predictions, for example

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1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't really appreciate this attitude. I know how to separate personal opinion from predictions. I did not like Stewart in Spencer but I still think she'll win the Oscar based on reviews and role. Belfast personally looks too cutesy to me but I always had it as a contender despite that. I just don't think the Academy will go basic in BP since outside of Green Book, they really haven't unless the Nov/Dec releases such as Licorice Pizza and Nightmare Alley underperform. 

 

I know of critics and pundits who have seen Gucci and weren't fans. You're going to see many bad reviews from critics soon. Anne Thompson only predicts what she has seen on gold Derby and removed Jared Leto from her predictions, for example

I apologize. I don't mean to have a negative tone. I appreciate and respect your posts. I do think you were very negative on Belfast's chances that seemed more personal than objective - I think it seems like a natural, normal winner. But that said, I am sorry. It is upsetting to see Gucci getting trashed.

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1 hour ago, 35MM-18 said:

It's okay for me to admit that I think Being the Ricardos isn't going to be much of a contender awards-wise, right?

well the last time aaron sorkin did a project about a comedy show it was studio 60 which is probably the worst thing that's ever happened. it'll be a bunch of sanctimonious 100% serious speeches about the importance of making people laugh.

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