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Best Picture Predictions - 2021

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New predicts for the main categories:

 

Picture:

 

1. Nightmare Alley

2. House of Gucci

3. Don't Look Up

4. Soggy Bottom

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth

6. West Side Story

7. Dune

8. Tick, Tick... Boom!

9. The Power of the Dog

10. Last Night in Soho

 

Director:

 

1. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

2. Adam McKay, Don't Look Up

3. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom

 

Actor:

 

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick... Boom!

3. Adam Driver, House of Gucci

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan

 

Actress:

 

1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Jennifer Lawrence, Don't Look Up

4. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

5. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom

2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

3. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley

4. Jason Isaacs, Mass

5. Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley

2. Amy Adams, Dear Evan Hansen

3. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho

4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

5. Meryl Streep, Don't Look Up

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Don't Look Up

2. Soggy Bottom

3. Last Night in Soho

4. Being the Ricardos

5. Mass

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Nightmare Alley

2. House of Gucci

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Dune

5. The Power of the Dog

 

We don't have an obvious international contender yet, but I have a feeling it might be Parallel Mothers. Almodovar is overdue for another Director nomination.

 

 

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Clifford the Big Red Dog

Black Widow

The Eternals

F9

Snake Eyes

Encanto

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Godzilla vs Kong

Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings

Quo Vadis, Aida

Edited by The Panda
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I'll wait to do further predictions until we get the TIFF/Venice lineups in full, which always tell us alot about pushes and placements. That said.....my bold, hot take prediction based on current buzz and early word is that King Richard goes on a populist Argo/Green Book style run to a Best Picture win or at least strong contention. I think they go crowdpleasing this year.

 

Usually, I don't talk about early buzz we are hearing on the internet because alot of it is unreliable, but I was able to confirm with my two industry friends in LA who I trust one piece of buzz I had heard several times - The Tragedy of Macbeth is apparently very, very fucking good.

 

Denzel vs. Will Smith vs. Leo Best Actor race let's gooooooooooooooo

Edited by Cmasterclay
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I don’t think King Richard will come close to winning BP. It’ll be closer to Bohemian Rhapsody than Argo/Green Book. It won’t have major guild or international support. And Green Book might be weakest BP winner of last decade. Only won PGA—lost WGA + ACE + DGA, missed Director. If Roma wasn’t so audience unfriendly, Green Book loses

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As for predictions, I’ll wait until the fests are fully announced. Though, I think the fests are somewhat meaningless this year with how COVID complicates travel. Might finally have a BP winner without Telluride. If all goes well, this truly might be PTA’s year for a Screenplay win

 

BP I’m most comfortable predicting:

Nightmare Alley-could be a 10 nom, 0 win film

Don’t Look Up- McKay is beloved and it’s a liberal film about climate change
Macbeth- Coen + Denzel + McDormand. Enough said

Belfast- the old British film of the year 

Soggy Bottom- PTA is technically most overdue director alive 

West Side Story- Spielberg rarely misses with a drama 
Gucci- Ridley is hit/miss but should have showy acting

Dune- will flop but should have immense respect for vision and craft 

——-

ROUND OUT TOP 10:

David O Russell’s movie- is it 2021? Will it be canceled?
King Richard- Actor contender and crowd pleaser 

Power of Dog- will be raved but will audiences like it (Carol/Beale Street)

Spencer- if it catches on beyond acting, could be another Jackie

Cmon Cmon- the sleeper of the year?
Worst Person in the World- Cannes biggest crowdpleaser. The Euro Director nom?

Tick Tick Boom- Lin fatigue? More than a Garfield play?

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4 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'll wait to do further predictions until we get the TIFF/Venice lineups in full, which always tell us alot about pushes and placements. That said.....my bold, hot take prediction based on current buzz and early word is that King Richard goes on a populist Argo/Green Book style run to a Best Picture win or at least strong contention. I think they go crowdpleasing this year.

 

Usually, I don't talk about early buzz we are hearing on the internet because alot of it is unreliable, but I was able to confirm with my two industry friends in LA who I trust one piece of buzz I had heard several times - The Tragedy of Macbeth is apparently very, very fucking good.

 

Denzel vs. Will Smith vs. Leo Best Actor race let's gooooooooooooooo

Heard anything about PTA?

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14 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Heard anything about PTA?

 

PTA's film is still kind of a mystery as to where it will premiere. I remember that Phantom Thread wasn't announced with its festival plan until later during 2017.

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On 7/21/2021 at 7:04 AM, The Panda said:

Clifford the Big Red Dog

Black Widow

The Eternals

F9

Snake Eyes

Encanto

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Godzilla vs Kong

Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings

Quo Vadis, Aida

I'm not too sure about this one

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47 minutes ago, Chicago said:

I'm not too sure about this one

Yes, I needed to throw in one troll pick. Probably that spot actually goes to Space Jam: A New Legacy

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On 7/21/2021 at 11:11 PM, Cmasterclay said:

I'll wait to do further predictions until we get the TIFF/Venice lineups in full, which always tell us alot about pushes and placements. That said.....my bold, hot take prediction based on current buzz and early word is that King Richard goes on a populist Argo/Green Book style run to a Best Picture win or at least strong contention. I think they go crowdpleasing this year.

 

Usually, I don't talk about early buzz we are hearing on the internet because alot of it is unreliable, but I was able to confirm with my two industry friends in LA who I trust one piece of buzz I had heard several times - The Tragedy of Macbeth is apparently very, very fucking good.

 

Denzel vs. Will Smith vs. Leo Best Actor race let's gooooooooooooooo

Denzel is going to be too subtle to win an Oscar.

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Who is to say Denzel is subtle? He’ll be playing Macbeth, far from a subtle role. 
 

Subtle performances can win when they reach unanimous praise which seems inevitable for Denzel. But again, I don’t expect a quiet performance 

 

Making acting predictions: 

ACTOR: Denzel (Macbeth), Smith (King Richard), Cooper (Nightmare Alley), DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), Cumberbatch (Power of Dog)/Garfield (Tick Tick Boom).. CANT decide. 
ALT: Phoenix (Cmon Cmon), Dinklage (Cyrano), Driver (Gucci), Bale (Untitled David O. Russell)
 

ACTRESS: McDormand (Macbeth), Gaga (Gucci), Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), Stewart (Spencer), Hudson (Respect)

ALT: Robbie (Untitled David O. Russell)

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Houdyshell (The Humans), DeBose (West Side Story), Streep (Don’t Look Up), Collette (Nightmare Alley), Comer (The Last Duel)

ALT: Dowd (Mass), Balfe/Dench (Belfast)

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Cooper (Soggy Bottom), Jenkins (The Humans), Driver (The Last Duel), Washington (Untitled David O. Russell), Rylance (Don’t Look Up)

ALT: Safdie (Soggy Bottom), Plemmons (Power of the Dog), Wright (The French Dispatch), Norman (Cmon Cmon)

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2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Who is to say Denzel is subtle? He’ll be playing Macbeth, far from a subtle role. 
 

Subtle performances can win when they reach unanimous praise which seems inevitable for Denzel. But again, I don’t expect a quiet performance 

It's not a subtle role, but Coen is taking a pretty unique approach to the film and everything I've heard about the movie makes me think it'll be a quiet and minimalistic adaptation of the play.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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9 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's not a subtle role, but Coen is taking a pretty unique approach to the film and everything I've heard about the movie makes me think it'll be a quiet and minimalistic adaptation of the play.

Not the impression I’ve gotten 

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Venice competition kinda underwhelming. Even Cannes was better. Still, not as bad as TIFF tho. Heard rumors Blonde (my most anticipated out of all the rumored titles) would premiere in competition here, but I guess not. Overall, a pretty boring year for fests.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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According to a pretty reliable film fest insider, seems like two major films (in fact the two films I mention on this page) were rejected by Venice.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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Venice lineup is mildly disappointing but for whatever it is worth it is a better (American) lineup than any Venice prior to 2016. I think it makes sense to hold things back from international fests given uncertainty, which is why I think Telluride and NYFF are gonna be bigger than ever. Also, I just simply think that stuff like Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci and the David Russell aren't ready yet. 

 

Not stunned about Blonde getting rejected but what is the other? It can't be Macbeth, can it?

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