Best Picture Predictions - 2021

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Think I remember reports that there was tons of tension on the set for The Revenant.

 

But really, while this might be a mistranslation, this seems more like a David Fincher "do 70 takes for one scene" kind of deal than it is a David O. Russell "yelling at Lilly Tomlin and being a sex pest"

It seems like the Fincher thing but a lot worse. I heard he overworked crew members to practically exploitative lengths (and this too since Mexico was at its covid wave peak). Here is what an extra said (she adds more in the thread):

 

 

 

Of course no idea if this will get traction. Dude pretty much had his crew suffer extremely cold weathers so that he could brag about it during his awards campaign.

[Chicago]

7 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Think I remember reports that there was tons of tension on the set for The Revenant.

 

But really, while this might be a mistranslation, this seems more like a David Fincher "do 70 takes for one scene" kind of deal than it is a David O. Russell "yelling at Lilly Tomlin and being a sex pest"

To be honest his movies aren't good enough to warrant the abuse he apperently dishes out. The Revenant was one of the most overrated pieces of shit I've ever seen and it's director is just pretentious

 

[WrathOfHan]

Tick Tick Boom is opening AFI. Mudbound is the only AFI opener from the past decade that got more than one Oscar nomination; Saving Mr. Banks and Hitchcock are the only other two that managed a single nomination, both of which were techs. This doesn't bode well for TTB's larger chances, but it can still remain a factor in the race. Most AFI openers tend to get precursor noms.

 

Meanwhile, A Journal for Jordan looks like a commercial play only based on the trailer.

Edited August 11, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

23 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Tick Tick Boom is opening AFI. Mudbound is the only AFI opener from the past decade that got more than one Oscar nomination; Saving Mr. Banks and Hitchcock are the only other two that managed a single nomination, both of which were techs. This doesn't bode well for TTB's larger chances, but it can still remain a factor in the race. Most AFI openers tend to get precursor noms.

 

Meanwhile, A Journal for Jordan looks like a commercial play only based on the trailer.

Tick Tick...Boom! always looked like a Best Actor play and nothing more. Garfield will likely be placed in Supporting for The Eyes of Tammy Faye to double his chances of getting nominated this year since the latter is clearly looking to be The Chastain Show.

[TMP]

On 8/5/2021 at 11:15 AM, lorddemaxus said:

According to an editor at Goldderby, Amazon is intending to release the new ... Clooney film this year.

Best Supporting Actor Ben Affleck

[WrathOfHan]

Benedict Cumberbatch is receiving the TIFF Tribute Actor Award this year. The last two recipients were Anthony Hopkins and Joaquin Phoenix  

[Cmasterclay]

Been reading the book, part is meatier than a full course meal at Texas De Brazil. Unfortunately I have never really loved any performance of his (too weird), so I really hope this is the one that turns me around! 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Benedict Cumberbatch is receiving the TIFF Tribute Actor Award this year. The last two recipients were Anthony Hopkins and Joaquin Phoenix  

The only two recipients, since this award has only existed since 2019, but a great track record so far, admittedly. For actresses, it hasn't been nearly as predictive: Meryl in 2019 (remember The Laundromat? LOL) and Kate Winslet in 2020, neither of whom even got nominated.

 

Obviously, your movie has to play TIFF to be considered for this award. This year’s Best Actor could be from something that won't debut until later this fall. The Oscars are in March, movies that get seen and peak later in the season might be at an advantage. 

Edited August 12, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[lorddemaxus]

Matt Damon deserves the Oscar this year. You actually forget that it's Matt Damon playing the character and the film works because of the empathy Damon injects into a character that could've easily been a redneck stereotype. But considering that Focus dumped the film and the controversies, he definitely isn't going far. 

[lorddemaxus]

I saw someone else mention that TIFF didn't call Dune a NA premiere. Probably means it's going to Telluride.

 

 

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

For what it's worth I've heard The Lost Daughter is very, very good and probably worth thinking about adding to predictions. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

For what it's worth I've heard The Lost Daughter is very, very good and probably worth thinking about adding to predictions. 

Problem is that it’s Netflix and they already have 2 big contenders. This should be able to compete for Actress and Screenplay, though 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

On 8/17/2021 at 3:15 PM, Cmasterclay said:

For what it's worth I've heard The Lost Daughter is very, very good and probably worth thinking about adding to predictions. 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

He works for Netflix but still 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

I like what I'm seeing and reading about The Lost Daughter 

[lorddemaxus]

Test screenings for Being the Ricardos is embargoed until Jan next year. Probably releasing on the last week of this year: https://letterboxd.com/rahulmenon/film/being-the-ricardos/

Edited August 20, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Never had a lot of faith with that film. The Academy runs hot/cold on Sorkin and this whole project seemed transparently baity. I think actors will like it but won't inspire much passion.

 

Updated predictions with fest news:

 

PICTURE:

1. Belfast

2. Cmon Cmon

3. Don't Look Up

4. Dune

5. King Richard

6. Nightmare Alley

7. Power of the Dog

8. Soggy Bottom

9. Spencer

10. West Side Story

ALT: The Worst Person in the World

 

DIRECTOR:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom

2. Jane Campion, Power of the Dog

3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

4. Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World (the highbrow nom?)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

ALT: Joel Coen, Macbeth. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast seems like the snub

 

ACTOR:

1. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up

4. Will Smith, King Richard

5. Denzel Washington, Macbeth

 

ACTRESS:

1. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

4. Frances McDormand, Macbeth

5. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

ALT: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom

2. Adam Driver, The Last Duel

3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans/Nightmare Alley

4. Jesse Plemmons, Power of the Dog

5. Mark Rylance, Don't Look Up

ALT: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Judi Dench, Belfast

2. Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog

3. Ariana deBose, West Side Story

4. Meryl Streep, Don't Look Up

5. Rooney Mara/Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley

ALT: Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. Belfast

2. Cmon Cmon

3. Don't Look Up

4. Soggy Bottom

5. Spencer

ALT: The Worst Person in the World/Last Night in Soho

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Coda

2. Dune

3. The Lost Daughter

4. Nightmare Alley

5. Power of the Dog

ALT: Macbeth

[Cmasterclay]

Fuck it, I'll do a round of pre-festival predictions that will be laughable in retrospect.

 

Picture

1. Nightmare Alley

2. King Richard

3. Soggy Bottom (or whatever they call it)

4. Power of the Dog

5. The Lost Daughter

6. Dune

7. Don't Look Up

8. Cyrano

9. Spencer

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth

Top Alts: House of Gucci, West Side Story, Hand of God, CODA, Belfast

 

Director

1. Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

3. Jane Campion, Power of the Dog

4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom

5. Paolo Sorrentino, Hand of God

Top Alts: Maggie Gyllenhaal and Adam McKay

 

Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog

3. Denzel Washington, MacBeth

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up

5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Tops Alts: Joaquin Phoenix, Bradley Cooper, and Andrew Garfield (tick, tick boom edition)

 

Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3. Olivia Colman, The Last Daughter

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Tops Alts: Jodie Comer, Frances McDormand, Cate Blanchett, and Ruth Negga

 

Best Supporting Actor

1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

2. Corey Hawkins, MacBeth

3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans

4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (unless he goes lead)

5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Tops Alts: Adam Driver (Last Duel), Ben Affleck (Tender Bar), Bradley Cooper (Soggy Bottom), whoever they pick for Nightmare Alley, and Bradley Whitford

 

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog

2. Ann Dowd, Mass

3. Marlee Matlin, Coda

4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

5. Catorina Balfe, Belfast

Alts: Whoever they pick from Nightmare Alley, Ariana DeBose, Judi Dench, and Judy Davis

Edited August 21, 2021 by Cmasterclay

[WrathOfHan]

I will join the madness as well:

 

Picture:

 

1. The Power of the Dog

2. Dune

3. Nightmare Alley

4. Don't Look Up

5. House of Gucci

6. Soggy Bottom

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth

8. The Lost Daughter

9. Last Night in Soho

10. Parallel Mothers

Alt: West Side Story

 

Director:

 

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

3. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom

Alt: Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

 

Actor:

 

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up

4. Will Smith, King Richard

5. Timothee Chalamet, Dune

Alt: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

 

Actress:

 

1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Don't Look Up

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Alt: Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom

3. Nightmare Alley Actor (Dafoe?)

4. Nightmare Alley Actor (Jenkins?)

5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Alt: Jason Isaacs, Mass

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

2. Nightmare Alley Actress (Collette?)  

3. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho

4. Meryl Streep, Don't Look Up

5. Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter

Alt: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Soggy Bottom

2. Don't Look Up

3. Last Night in Soho

4. Parallel Mothers

5. The Hand of God

Alt: Mass

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. The Power of the Dog

2. Dune

3. Nightmare Alley

4. The Lost Daughter

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth

Alt: House of Gucci

 

Power of the Dog and Dune will dominate the festival discourse. House of Gucci might be more of a commercial play, but it'll still be in the discussion if it performs well (likely).

 

46 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (unless he goes lead)

Every Mass actor is confirmed supporting.

[grim22]

On 8/19/2021 at 11:51 PM, lorddemaxus said:

Test screenings for Being the Ricardos is embargoed until Jan next year. Probably releasing on the last week of this year: https://letterboxd.com/rahulmenon/film/being-the-ricardos/

This movie is screening everywhere in OC and LA. Got like 5 invites in 5 different locations for next week.