Best Picture Predictions - 2021

[WrathOfHan]

Actually fuck it, here are predictions for every category before the festivals begin  

 

Spoiler

 

Picture:

 

1. The Power of the Dog

2. Dune

3. Nightmare Alley

4. Don't Look Up

5. House of Gucci

6. Soggy Bottom

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth

8. The Lost Daughter

9. Last Night in Soho

10. Parallel Mothers

Alt: West Side Story

 

Director:

 

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

3. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom

Alt: Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

 

Actor:

 

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up

4. Will Smith, King Richard

5. Timothee Chalamet, Dune

Alt: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

 

Actress:

 

1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Don't Look Up

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Alt: Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom

3. Nightmare Alley Actor (Dafoe?)

4. Nightmare Alley Actor (Jenkins?)

5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Alt: Jason Isaacs, Mass

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

2. Nightmare Alley Actress (Collette?)  

3. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho

4. Meryl Streep, Don't Look Up

5. Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter

Alt: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Soggy Bottom

2. Don't Look Up

3. Last Night in Soho

4. Parallel Mothers

5. The Hand of God

Alt: Mass

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. The Power of the Dog

2. Dune

3. Nightmare Alley

4. The Lost Daughter

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth

Alt: House of Gucci

 

International:

 

1. Parallel Mothers

2. The Hand of God

3. A Hero

4. Compartment No. 6

5. The Worst Person in the World

Alt: Drive My Car

 

Animated:

 

1. Luca

2. Flee

3. Encanto

4. The Mitchells vs the Machines

5. Belle

Alt: My Best Friend Anne Frank

 

Documentary:

 

1. Flee

2. Misha and the Wolves

3. A Night of Knowing Nothing

4. Marx Can Wait

5. The Sparks Brothers

Alt: Seaspiracy

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Dune

2. The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Nightmare Alley

4. The Hand of God

5. Last Night in Soho

Alt: The Power of the Dog

 

Editing:

 

1. Dune

2. Don't Look Up

3. The Power of the Dog

4. House of Gucci

5. Last Night in Soho

Alt: Top Gun: Maverick

 

Production Design:

 

1. Dune

2. Nightmare Alley

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Last Night in Soho

5. Soggy Bottom

Alt: West Side Story

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Cruella

2. Dune

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Nightmare Alley

5. The Power of the Dog

Alt: House of Gucci

 

Makeup and Hairstyling:

 

1. House of Gucci

2. Cruella

3. Dune

4. Soggy Bottom

5. Last Night in Soho

Alt: Old

 

Score:

 

1. Dune

2. The Power of the Dog

3. Don't Look Up

4. Nightmare Alley

5. Last Night in Soho

Alt: The French Dispatch

 

Song:

 

1. No Time to Die, No Time to Die

2. Encanto

3. Don't Look Up

4. Top Gun: Maverick

5. So May We Start, Annette 

Alt: Dear Evan Hansen

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Dune

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. Eternals

4. Don't Look Up

5. No Time to Die

Alt: Spider-Man: No Way Home

 

Sound:

 

1. Dune

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. No Time to Die

4. Nightmare Alley

5. A Quiet Place Part II

Alt: Last Night in Soho

 

 

12:

Dune (Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Score, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

11:

Nightmare Alley (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Sound)

 

9:

Don't Look Up (Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song, Visual Effects)

The Power of the Dog (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Costume Design, Score)

 

8:

Last Night in Soho (Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Makeup, Score)

 

7:

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Picture, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design)

 

6:

House of Gucci (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Editing, Makeup)

Soggy Bottom (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Makeup)

 

4:

The Lost Daughter (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)

Parallel Mothers (Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay, International)

 

3:

The Hand of God (Original Screenplay, International, Cinematography)

No Time to Die (Song, Visual Effects, Sound)

Top Gun: Maverick (Song, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

2:

Cruella (Costume Design, Makeup)

Encanto (Animated, Song)

Flee (Documentary, Animated)

 

Power of the Dog vs Dune is the mounting narrative going into the festivals, and I'd say these predictions are somewhat rooted in that. As it stands, those two films account for wins in 12/23 categories; the only other movie I have with multiple wins is House of Gucci. 7 wins for Dune would be the largest haul since Gravity 8 years ago (swap the extra sound win for PD in this case).

 

I have a feeling this isn't going to be a spread the wealth year at the moment. I have 5/10 BP nominees taking home nothing, and if I dropped Parallel Mothers for West Side Story, that would be up to 6/10. If my prediction for Nightmare Alley holds (unlikely), it'd break the record for most nominations without a win.

 

Edited August 24, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[lorddemaxus]

Not enough Worst Person in the World in here. Seems like it's the most crowd pleasing of all the foreign language films this year. The Hand of God feels like a maybe strong contender too because of the really powerful narrative behind it.

Edited August 24, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[filmlover]

Dates for first critical reactions to from Venice this week:

Wed 9/1:
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog

Thurs 9/2:
The Card Counter
The Hand of God
The Lost Daughter

Fri 9/3:
Dune
Il Buco
Spencer

Sat 9/4:
Last Night in Soho
Official Competition
Sundown

— Will Mavity (@mavericksmovies) August 29, 2021

[lorddemaxus]

Hearing that Telluride is stealing Belfast's world premiere status from TIFF.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Hearing that Telluride is stealing Belfast's world premiere status from TIFF.

I’m really nervous of that film lol. Branagh’s track record sucks now but I can see that being the Oscar bait movie of the year. If he actually pulls off a Screenplay win over PTA, ugh

[Jake Gittes]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

If he actually pulls off a Screenplay win over PTA

It's September.

[lorddemaxus]

Telluride slate has been announced. Tomorrow's premieres are Cyrano, C'mon C'mon, Belfast, The electric Life of Louis Wain, and King Richard.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

It's September.

And? Telluride is a great indicator for BP and if Belfast gets raved there, that implies it’s a major film 

Edited September 1, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[lorddemaxus]

Penciling in Madres Paralelas for Actress (maybe Picture, but waiting to see how Hand of God is received). Power of the Dog might be divisive based on some early rumblings, but not going to say anything more until more reactions come out or even better, when the review embargo lifts tomorrow so that I don't look like an idiot lol.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Penciling in Madres Paralelas for Actress (maybe Picture, but waiting to see how Hand of God is received). Power of the Dog might be divisive based on some early rumblings, but not going to say anything more until more reactions come out or even better, when the review embargo lifts tomorrow so that I don't look like an idiot lol.

I still think reviews will be good and the festival rollout is a good sign, but I still always laughed at everyone believing a Jane Campion movie would be a major contender. She hasn’t had an Oscar hit since Piano! in the Cut was an F cinemascore 

Edited September 1, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I still think reviews will be good and the festival rollout is a good sign, but I still always laughed at everyone believing a Jane Campion movie would be a major contender. She hasn’t had an Oscar hit since Piano!

Yeah, and reading some of the plot of the source material itself made me think that this would be more In the Cut Campion (cold, sensual in a creepy way, and messy) than something like The Piano.

Edited September 1, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Power of the Dog might be divisive based on some early rumblings, but not going to say anything more until more reactions come out or even better, when the review embargo lifts tomorrow so that I don't look like an idiot lol.

Last week I was listening to the Vanity Fair awards podcast and one of them had seen it already and maybe he was trying to be neutral but he sounded kind of guarded in his comments. I read the plot summary and could already picture the thinkpieces, plus the "In 2021, shouldn't this be played by an openly gay actor?" debate. It's Netflix, so there won't be any box office as a counterpoint to criticisms, and I doubt it will hang around the Top 10 chart for weeks with all the original rom-coms and Cocomelon.

 

A problem with streaming movies in an awards race has been the lack of lingering cultural impact and even Netflix will be on to another contender before December is out. I'm not saying it’s doomed but voters will have a lot of easier (for them) options.

Edited September 1, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

And? Telluride is a great indicator for BP and if Belfast gets raved there, that implies it’s a major film 

That has nothing to do with whether it can or will win best screenplay over another movie that no one has seen yet and whether that's going to be a good thing or not if it happens. Just seems particularly strange to already "ugh" about something so completely hypothetical.

 

As for Campion, I got the impression people were banking on/rooting for this being her BlacKkKlansman-esque high-profile movie comeback. No big surprise if it turns out more divisive than that though.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

That has nothing to do with whether it can or will win best screenplay over another movie that no one has seen yet and whether that's going to be a good thing or not if it happens. Just seems particularly strange to already "ugh" about something so completely hypothetical.

 

As for Campion, I got the impression people were banking on/rooting for this being her BlacKkKlansman-esque high-profile movie comeback. No big surprise if it turns out more divisive than that though.

PTA's movie has been screening for awhile, actually. He's one of my favorite directors, consistently nominated and has never won. Branagh's film sounds like a snooze and he's directed terrible movies his entire life. I feel like an "ugh" about the very plausible potential of having an Oscar juggernaut is perfectly valid. Feels like the basic Oscar bait of the year-Green Book, Trial of Chicago 7

[WrathOfHan]

tfw Parallel Mothers might be a more viable contender than Power of the Dog  

Edited September 1, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Cmasterclay]

I'd wait on the Power of Dog burying until tomorrow.

 

Kenneth Branagh directed Dead Again. That's a great movie.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Power of the Dog feels like The Master. Telluride critics will probably dislike it if it's polarizing the Venice crowd

[4815162342]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'd wait on the Power of Dog burying until tomorrow.

 

Kenneth Branagh directed Dead Again. That's a great movie.

 

Branagh has directed his share of clunkers, no denying that.

 

But I cannot dismiss offhandedly a film from the guy who did Henry V, Dead Again, Much Ado About Nothing, and Hamlet.

 

I just want him to get in the right frame of mind and zone so he can finally tackle King Lear

[lorddemaxus]

Amazon set a Jan 7th theatrical release date for Farhadi's A Hero. There's no way they aren't giving this a qualifying run right?

[SLAM!]

26 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Amazon set a Jan 7th theatrical release date for Farhadi's A Hero. There's no way they aren't giving this a qualifying run right?

 

They'll find a way for it to qualify, somehow, someway. There's plenty of time for them to figure something out. They might release it in four theaters a week or two before the 7th.