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charlie Jatinder

Fast 9 International Box Office Thread.

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Posted (edited)

With COVID surge in Singapore and Taiwan, F9 release is postponed. Now only China, Korea, Middle East, Hong Kong and Russia release next week.

 

Expecting

China - $130-150M

Russia - $8-10M
Korea - $6-8M

Middle East - $5-6M

Hong Kong - $3M

 

Total - $152-177M

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

With COVID surge in Singapore and Taiwan, F9 release is postponed. Now only China, Korea, Middle East, Hong Kong and Russia release next week.

 

Expecting

China - $130-150M

Russia - $10M
Korea - $8-10M

Middle East - $5-6M

Hong Kong - $3M

 

Total - $155-180M

 

can fast 9 pass 600 mill ww final ?

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For reference, Fate of the Furious and Hobbs and Shaw opening weekend in same markets F9 releasing, at current exchange rates.

 

The Fate of the Furious

 

China - ¥1352M ($210.5M)
Korea - ₩12.01B ($10.65M)
Russia - ₽803M ($10.9M)
UAE - $4.65M

Hong Kong - HK$22.8M ($2.95M)

GCC - $2.5M

Egypt - $0.6M

 

Total - $242.8M

 

Hobbs and Shaw

 

China - ¥713M ($111M)
Korea - ₩18.24B ($16.2M)
Russia - ₽545M ($7.4M)
UAE - $3.75M

Hong Kong - HK$15.3M ($1.97M)

GCC - $2.3M

KSA - $0.9M

Egypt - $0.6M

 

Total - $144.2M

 

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Posted (edited)

Looks like 42-43% drop compared to F8 and 49-50% compared to F7 in Russia. The only hope is that unusual Wednesday opening messed things up.

Edited by juni78ukr
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3 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Gangbusters performance in overseas especially asia. 

all the numbers are in ASIA.

 

Korea and Hong Kong had holiday advantage on OD. OW everywhere seems like will be 20-40% under FF8.

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Posted (edited)

I noticed recently that FF7 and FF8 had done about half of their box office in China and the United States.

 

$745M / $1515M for FF7

 

$620M / $1236M for FF8.

 

I think it will be a bit the same for FF9, but maybe with a weaker overall result because of a few countries where cinemas will be closed or which will still be very affected by COVID.

 

So if it makes between $400M and $500M in the US and China. We can then expect an overall result between $700M and $900M.

Edited by LPLC
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Posted (edited)

Though I would have preferred at end of this weekend or closer to 2nd phase of release, but whatever. Here's my analysis on possible F9 numbers.

 

China - China is biggest market for the film. The initial numbers suggest probably $140-150M weekend, I would guess $280 full run as compared to $394M of FF8. The drop will be 33% in local currency while 38% in admissions.

 

DOM - Don't know if Canada will be back by June, I assume it will be. Thinking of $150M in DOM.

 

That's $430M in markets, last film did $623M. In Overseas FF8 did $616M, though that was with worst exchange rates in most places.

 

Looking at overseas markets in first phase;

 

Korea - Probably $17M (-40% local currency)

Russia - $16M (-37% local currency)

Hong Kong - $5M
UAE - $7M (-30%)

KSA - $10M+ (NEW)
Middle East - Others - $6M

 

Total - $61M+

 

FF8 did $82M in these 5, as compared to $51M F9 will do + $10M from Saudi. There is roughly 38% drop in these in pure in non-adjusted for ER numbers.

 

In remaining markets, FF8 did

Europe and Africa - $210M

LATAM - $135M

Asia - $164M

ANZ - $25M

 

Europe shall see currency improvement and I assume COVID situation will be very normal. Assuming a 40% real drop will probably do $140M.

 

LATAM only Mexico seems like is properly back in among major markets. Not sure about COVID situation, but I guess can imagine $50-90M depending on COVID.

 

Asia India will probably miss it completely, doing very little by the time it release. There is new surge in East Asian markets, so not proper surety there too. Thinking $80-100M here.

 

ANZ will probably do $20-25M.

 

So around $290-355M.

 

That gives $780-850M. 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Opening weekend in Russia on par with Mortal Kombat. Less than Hobbs and Shaw Probably around 600 mln RUB or $8 mln in 5 days.

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