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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (5/14-16)

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GvK is still gonna end up with over 90M DOM. The problem is that people don't see the majority of movies as theater worthy anymore. Something like Spiral or Those Who Wish Me Dead is no longer gonna put butts in the seats.

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I have said it before and I will say it again: the theaters business as we know it is over. I am not saying this because of some damn gimmick. That is my legit opinion. People got used to see everything in streaming during the pandemic. It is so much better. I saw The Woman in the Window yesterday without leaving my couch. I didn't have to deal with people talking or looking at their phones, I didn't even have to leave the house. This is the future, and the future is now.

 

If I can see Those Who Wish Me Dead at home, I will see it at home.

 

While I'm not entirely sure the movie business as it was is over I agree as a whole, I took much more pleasure watching Soul at home on Disney+ than I would have watching it in theaters, and that's why I'm even more excited with Luca than I normally would be thanks to the D+ release.

And being able to eat whatever you want and taking a break without missing anything are some of the strengths.

 

 

Edited by Fullbuster
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5 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

While I'm not entirely sure the movie business as it was is over I agree as a whole, I took much more pleasure watching Soul at home on Disney+ than I would have watching it in theaters, and that's why I'm even more excited with Luca than I normally would be thanks to the D+ release.

And being able to eat whatever you want and taking a break without missing anything is one of the strengths.

 

 

It is all about watching things whenever you want and make whatever breaks you want. The freedom and comodity of such thing is huge, and people got used to it. 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Something like Spiral or Those Who Wish Me Dead is no longer gonna put butts in the seats.

The 9th film of a franchise that was barely alive three movies ago and an adult drama dump were never gonna put butts in the seat. 

Edited by lorddemaxus
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@lorddemaxus

 

If I can clarify something for myself, as somebody who started a lot of pessimism on this thread, I should mention the bad numbers for Wish Me Dead and Spiral isn't why I'm so gloomy over the summer. I am well aware these movies had a lot of things going against them, even if I still think Spiral should have at least gone into the double digits. And even if they did overperform, while I would be a bit more positive over the next few weeks, I've been having skepticism over the next few months box office wise for a while. 

 

Rather, it is more to do with the underwhelming presales of Quiet Place and Cruella yesterday, as well as how I've been feeling over the GA's responses over movies and the jump in vaccinations, albeit much of this is anecdotal. I just shared my input because it was something I wanted to share and get off my chest and Maggie's post gave me a good opportunity to discuss this.

 

I understand this may seem repetitious and harsh to hear people being doom and gloom over the numbers week after week. Believe me, I hate that there's so little else to talk about. But I feel for my case, I think talking about this stuff, especially with summer movies kicking off in two weeks, is necessary and as a discussion forum, I wanted to discuss my thoughts on how the next few months will go in terms of people's interest in going to the movies. Because while some markets are doing better than others, I think there's still a decent chance we might not ever go back to the pre-pandemic numbers and that a lot of movies, even the ones people are super confident on, won't do as well as we hope.

 

I sympathize, but I feel like I should say how I feel about what's going on in the current movie climate and why I'm so pessimistic, even if it annoys people.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

@lorddemaxus

 

If I can clarify something for myself, as somebody who started a lot of pessimism on this thread, I should mention the bad numbers for Wish Me Dead and Spiral isn't why I'm so gloomy over the summer. I am well aware these movies had a lot of things going against them, even if I still think Spiral should have at least gone into the double digits. And even if they did overperform, while I would be a bit more positive over the next few weeks, I've been having skepticism over the next few months box office wise for a while. 

 

Rather, it is more to do with the underwhelming presales of Quiet Place and Cruella yesterday, as well as how I've been feeling over the GA's responses over movies and the jump in vaccinations, albeit much of this is anecdotal. I just shared my input because it was something I wanted to share and get off my chest and Maggie's post gave me a good opportunity to discuss this.

 

I understand this may seem repetitious and harsh to hear people being doom and gloom over the numbers week after week. Believe me, I hate that there's so little else to talk about. But I feel for my case, I think talking about this stuff, especially with summer movies kicking off in two weeks, is necessary and as a discussion forum, I wanted to discuss my thoughts on how the next few months will go in terms of people's interest in going to the movies. Because while some markets are doing better than others, I think there's still a decent chance we might not ever go back to the pre-pandemic numbers and that a lot of movies, even the ones people are super confident on, won't do as well as we hope.

 

I sympathize, but I feel like I should say how I feel about what's going on in the current movie climate and why I'm so pessimistic, even if it annoys people.

I was speaking generally (same thing happens on r/boxoffice) and targeting a little bit at cjohn, since he's been saying the same thing all the time. Put me down for "AQP2 and Cruella will underperform" gang but I think those movies would've underperformed before the pandemic so I don't think those two underperforming is a big deal. 

 

I think the real test comes in June with In The Heights and F9. If both underperform too, I'll be a lot more skpetical.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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Even if Spiral and TWWMD were never gonna do well, these movies can't be opening with under 10M and like 2.5M. That is horrendous. Why can't I discuss this? I was really hoping for a strong opening for Spiral (lots of posts in the past week asking for pre-sales updates and if it was looking good for 20M).

 

And I am speaking from a market where homevideo does no longer exist and the theatrical experience is on the verge of ending, since numbers are viciously bad no matter what they put playing.

 

About Cruella and A Quiet Place 2, I am quite confident both will flop theatrically. I am hoping for 35-40M 4 day OW but starting to get myself ready for 20M for each over the 4 day weekend. And don't even get me started with The Conjuring 3, that is coming for 15M OW at most.

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2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Even if Spiral and TWWMD were never gonna do well, these movies can't be opening with under 10M and like 2.5M. That is horrendous. Why can't I discuss this? I was really hoping for a strong opening for Spiral (lots of posts in the past week asking for pre-sales updates and if it was looking good for 20M).

 

The last Saw opened to $16 mil. $9 mil seems about right with this one likely seeing a drop from the last one + pandemic still affecting things. And if WB's 2019 adult drama output is of any indication, Those Who Wish Me Dead would've opened to less than $10 mil normally. 

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1 hour ago, CJohn said:

GvK is still gonna end up with over 90M DOM. The problem is that people don't see the majority of movies as theater worthy anymore. Something like Spiral or Those Who Wish Me Dead is no longer gonna put butts in the seats.

Now this I will agree with. I don’t think blockbusters are dead, but anything that doesn’t feel like it really needs a big screen is going to struggle.  
 

Notably though, we were talking about that very trend *before* covid.

 

55 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I was speaking generally (same thing happens on r/boxoffice) and targeting a little bit at cjohn, since he's been saying the same thing all the time. Put me down for "AQP2 and Cruella will underperform" gang but I think those movies would've underperformed before the pandemic so I don't think those two underperforming is a big deal. 

 

I think the real test comes in June with In The Heights and F9. If both underperform too, I'll be a lot more skpetical.

Couldn’t agree more. Once BW hopped out of May, it just didn’t have enough variety and oomph of remaining product to serve as a real test of the market. The Peter Rabbit to BW corridor will be real make or break to see how recovery we truly are by then.

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So current top pandemic releases (30M+):

GvK 94M  

Tenet 58.5M

Croods 58M

WW84 46.5M

Raya 45M

T&J 45M

DS 41M

MK 39M

 

Looking like they’ll settle something like:

Gvk 100M  

Raya 59M

Croods 59M

Tenet 58.5M

DS 47.5M

T&J 47M 

WW84 46.5M

MK 43M  

 

However, because of the odd coincidence of clustering near 58 and 47, the order of a lot of these finishes is still uncertain after many have been playing for months and months now — Raya/Croods/Tenet and DS/T&J/WW84.

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Very disappointing for Spiral. With the low pre-sale numbers for AQPII, and the negative reactions to Conjuring, Texas Chainsaw and Malignant, looks like its up to Halloween Kills to redeem horror this year. 

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2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

So current top pandemic releases (30M+):

GvK 94M  

Tenet 58.5M

Croods 58M

WW84 46.5M

Raya 45M

T&J 45M

DS 41M

MK 39M

 

Looking like they’ll settle something like:

Gvk 100M  

Raya 59M

Croods 59M

Tenet 58.5M

DS 47.5M

T&J 47M 

WW84 46.5M

MK 43M  

 

However, because of the odd coincidence of clustering near 58 and 47, the order of a lot of these finishes is still uncertain after many have been playing for months and months now — Raya/Croods/Tenet and DS/T&J/WW84.

:ohmygod:

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If cinema has died, Russia and China win another battleground in this Cold War 2.0 wthout much attack. As simple as that, cinema has been a vital place for Amercian to export and exert their soft power overseas. 

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2 hours ago, PKMLover said:

:ohmygod:

It’s a little optimistic. I think Jat would tell you more like 45.5M — but it’s starting to stabilize this weekend and I personally think late legs will be pretty decent

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DS is performing much like a standard film , rather than a niche fan-driven event. This suggest that there is some support from general public

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Posted (edited)
- (1) Wrath of Man United Ar… $3,740,000 -55% 3,007 +132 $1,244 $14,600,233 2
- N Those Who Wish Me Dead Warner Bros. $2,800,000   3,188   $878 $2,800,000 1
- (5) Raya and the Last Dragon Walt Disney $1,718,000 -11% 2,285 -30 $752 $46,123,814 11
- (4) Godzilla vs. Kong Warner Bros. $1,460,000 -27% 2,484 -269 $588 $95,011,000 7
- (3) Mortal Kombat Warner Bros. $1,320,000 -45% 2,465 -508 $535 $39,906,000 4
- N Profile Focus Fea… $670,000   2,033   $330 $670,000 1
- (8) Nobody Universal $380,000 -53% 1,553 -378 $245 $25,281,025 8
- (6) Separation Open Road $340,000 -68% 1,253 -658 $271 $4,076,463 3
- (10) Tom and Jerry Warner Bros. $320,000 -27% 1,657 -174 $193 $45,187,000 12
- (13) The Croods: A New Age Universal $160,000 -11% 1,097 -103 $146 $58,008,510 25
- (11) Four Good Days Vertical … $73,000 -68% 326 -163 $224 $775,723 3
- (15) The Girl Who Believes… Atlas Dis… $61,250 -57% 417 -191 $147 $3,049,675 7
Edited by titanic2187
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