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MEMORIAL DAY 2021 WEEKEND THREAD | AQP2 19.3 Fri, Cruella 7.7 | SALE: $5 OFF FIRST MONTH OF GOLD

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Looks like I'm going to see Cruella in a few hours, got a friend that wants to check it out, will give my non spoiler thoughts once I watch it. 

 

A Quiet Place 2 I will hopefully go see next week some time as one of my mates I saw the first one with is busy this weekend. 

 

Both came out an an unfortunate time in this part of the world (Oceania) with Melbourne in lockdown though that will hurt Australia numbers somewhat. 

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It's quite funny to see Cruella no. 1 on US Twitter while AQP2 is nowhere to be seen, eventhogh AQP2 will end up being seen by more people this weekend. I guess being able to share screenshots and clips from the movie makes it easier to talk about the movie on the internet.

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4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's quite funny to see Cruella no. 1 on US Twitter while AQP2 is nowhere to be seen, eventhogh AQP2 will end up being seen by more people this weekend. I guess being able to share screenshots and clips from the movie makes it easier to talk about the movie on the internet.

Well, it’s quite possible that Cruella will end up being seen by more people, right? Theatrical admits will be like 5.5M vs 2.5M or something, online viewings 🤷‍♂️

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9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's quite funny to see Cruella no. 1 on US Twitter while AQP2 is nowhere to be seen, eventhogh AQP2 will end up being seen by more people this weekend. I guess being able to share screenshots and clips from the movie makes it easier to talk about the movie on the internet.

To be fair, Quiet Place 2 doesn't have...well you know. If it did, it would be a whole other story.

 

Anyways, just a reminder that while Film Twitter may not care about spoilers, we do. So remember everybody to please be careful before you post.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Well, it’s quite possible that Cruella will end up being seen by more people, right? Theatrical admits will be like 5.5M vs 2.5M or something, online viewings 🤷‍♂️


We must also remember this: only 5 million accounts need to order the film for Disney to get $150m directly into their pockets. 
 

Edited by AJG
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Cruella will be massive on Disney+ and dont forget everyone can download a torrent and see it for free.

 

Way more people will watch it than AQP2.

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14 minutes ago, AJG said:


We must also remember this: only 5 million accounts need to order the film for Disney to get $150m directly into their pockets. 
 

Idk, 5 million people paying $30 dollars to watch a movie at home would be a lot and I have a hard time seeing that happen within the span of a weekend. I mean if we try to look at HBO Max subscription increases as PVOD sales, a bigger movie than Cruella like GvK didn't move that by much (maybe 1 mil at most I guess?), and I don't see a lot of people wanting to pay double that for just one movie.

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18 minutes ago, AJG said:


We must also remember this: only 5 million accounts need to order the film for Disney to get $150m directly into their pockets. 
 

Did we ever get any evidence of how many people are actually ordering these premium access movies on Disney+?
If they were that successful then why would they be ending them from September onwards? 
 

Regardless, I just don’t see how putting a perfect HDR 2160p copy of your movie on the internet the minute the movie comes out, can result in anything but lost money by the hundreds of millions. 

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Just now, grey ghost said:

Parking Lot Report:

 

About 1/5 full.

 

Lowering my predicts to 40 m for AQP2 and 25 m for Cruella for the 3-day.

You could be close for AQP2. Too high for Cruella for sure. 

 

I see only 4.82m at MTC for AQP2 and 1.83m for Cruella. Thinking closer to 4.2m OD(pure friday) and 11.5m pure friday for AQP2. I will update in couple of hours. 

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26 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Idk, 5 million people paying $30 dollars to watch a movie at home would be a lot and I have a hard time seeing that happen within the span of a weekend. I mean if we try to look at HBO Max subscription increases as PVOD sales, a bigger movie than Cruella like GvK didn't move that by much (maybe 1 mil at most I guess?), and I don't see a lot of people wanting to pay double that for just one movie.

Raya did possibly 1.7m buys in the US opening weekend (which was little under Mulan) according to Antenna data plus some other data points, which I broke down in this post:

 

 

That said I don't think Cruella will be as popular and 5M worldwide seems high to me personally for an opening weekend (and maybe even total) as I imagine PA is 40-50% from US (that is just a gut feeling though, no data to back that up)

 

Also worth noting PA seems front loaded, in particular for Mulan according to this chart:

1*rn71Z_kmE33ee0g0HfgWHQ.png

 

That said we should hopefully get Antenna and Nielsen data (a month delayed) to compare US numbers to, the chart above showing the Antenna Data and for Nielsen data we have:

 

Mulan: 525m minutes (no second weekend data as they weren't breaking movie top 10 out at that point)

Raya: 335m minutes (second week was up at 390m minutes)

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13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You could be close for AQP2. Too high for Cruella for sure. 

 

I see only 4.82m at MTC for AQP2 and 1.83m for Cruella. Thinking closer to 4.2m OD(pure friday) and 11.5m pure friday for AQP2. I will update in couple of hours. 

Thanks for update. On the low end for AQP2, but still fantastic for it. Obviously, it would have done close to its predecessor without the panademic. Still, it could have been a lot worse compared to many weeks ago. 

 

On the other hand, Cruella will be lucky to get to $50m unless its WOM is shockingly excellent. 

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56 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Cruella will be massive on Disney+ and dont forget everyone can download a torrent and see it for free.

 

Way more people will watch it than AQP2.

 

 

Cruella doesn't have a huge potential audience as a theatrical movie because it's not one of these big budget movies, people might be interested but not necessary to the point they'd buy a ticket for it and leave their house.

 

At home on Disney+ though? Yeah, people will be much more curious, I'm definitely in this category myself so I know ^^

That's the beauty of Disney+: these lower budget movies will be seen by much more people and will add value to the platform, that's why it's smart to make Disenchanted (Enchanted 2) and Hocus Pocus 2 as D+ only, they're the sequels of beloved movies and while these sequels wouldn't gross much in theaters they'll bring notalgic viewers to D+ and Disney's ecosystem.

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8 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Raya did possibly 1.7m buys in the US opening weekend (which was little under Mulan) according to Antenna data plus some other data points, which I broke down in this post:

 

 

That said I don't think Cruella will be as popular and 5M worldwide seems high to me personally for an opening weekend (and maybe even total) as I imagine PA is 40-50% from US (that is just a gut feeling though, no data to back that up)

 

Also worth noting PA seems front loaded, in particular for Mulan according to this chart:

1*rn71Z_kmE33ee0g0HfgWHQ.png

 

That said we should hopefully get Antenna and Nielsen data (a month delayed) to compare US numbers to, the chart above showing the Antenna Data and for Nielsen data we have:

 

Mulan: 525m minutes (no second weekend data as they weren't breaking movie top 10 out at that point)

Raya: 335m minutes (second week was up at 390m minutes)

 

Such numbers from Raya would mean they grossed more from Premiere Access in its 1st week alone than from from Raya's entire US theater run, no wonder they're doing it for Cruella, Black Widow and Jungle Cruise.

 

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I saw Cruella in a real movie theater and I loved it. I can’t wait to see every LEWK that Thompson and Stone serve on RuPaul’s Drag Race S14. God. They were AMAZING. 

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It's been a while. The roads were a little empty. Places we used to gather went quiet. We've gone through a year that's tested us, but we're starting to see the promise of a new day. For more than a hundred years, there's one place where we all came together to be entertained. To escape. To go someplace new. The movies. There's nothing like that moment when the lights go down, the projector ignites, and we believe.  After staying apart for so long, it's time to come back together. To laugh. To cheer. We're ready to make you believe again. Because nobody does a comeback like the movies! We'll see ya soon.

 

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