Weekend Thread (6/4-6) | Conjuring 24M Weekend, Quiet Place 19.5, Cruella 11.24

[misterpepp]

11 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don't remember Disney officially announcing a sequel that doesn't happen.

 

And they never made sequels for flops. 

 

I believe they were prepping Jungle Book 2 for quite a while, but that never seemed to get off the ground.

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

I believe they were prepping Jungle Book 2 for quite a while, but that never seemed to get off the ground.

Yeah, i think it's due to Favreau getting busy "saving" Star Wars after he direct TLK.

[Jamiem]

Big drops have become the normal for 2nd weekend lately and compared to some other films AQP2 and Cruella are looking to hold up fairly well.

 

Also with Summer weekdays that may have taken some of the demand for the weekend. 

[Porthos]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Disney hasn't said anything officially about making a Cruella sequel.  

 

We have a report from THR about it being in "early development", true.  But from Disney itself?  Nada, zilch, nope.

 

Plus, gotta say, as a SW fan I now take such stories about films being in "early development" with at least a bit of skepticism.  Or, to be more precise, just because something is in "early development" (very probably true) doesn't mean it actually gets made.

Edited June 5, 2021 by Porthos

[Jamiem]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Disney hasn't said anything officially about making a Cruella sequel.  

 

We have a report from THR about it being in "early development", true.  But from Disney itself?  Nada, zilch, nope.

 

Plus, gotta say, as a SW fan I now take such stories about films being in "early development" with at least a bit of skepticism.

A Disney spokesperson gave comment though (which usually doesn't happen I think):

 

Quote

“We are very pleased with Cruella’s box office success, in conjunction with its strong Disney+ Premier Access performance to date,” a Disney spokesperson said in a statement. “The film has been incredibly well received by audiences around the world, with a 97% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes in addition to A’s in every demographic from CinemaScore on opening weekend, ranking it among the most popular of our live-action reimaginings. We look forward to a long run as audiences continue to enjoy this fantastic film.”

 

Edited June 5, 2021 by Jamiem

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Jamiem said:

A Disney spokesperson gave comment though (which usually doesn't happen I think):

 

 

Yep, I'm aware of that statement.  Also doesn't even hint at the film continuing as a franchise.

 

It just might.  But nothing in that statement says as such.

[Jamiem]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yep, I'm aware of that statement.  Also doesn't even hint at the film continuing as a franchise.

 

It just might.  But nothing in that statement says as such.

Usually, wouldn't they just to decline to comment on an article about a sequel though. 

 

It could very well fade away and become nothing as what happened with TJB2 (which the first one made nearly $1B at the box office) or countless other in development titles but it seems weird for Disney to comment on it. 

 

edit: TJB sequel news doesn't have a statement from Disney for instance https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/jungle-book-2-works-jon-882624/

Edited June 5, 2021 by Jamiem

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Jamiem said:

Usually, wouldn't they just to decline to comment on an article about a sequel though. 

 

It could very well fade away and become nothing as what happened with TJB2 (which the first one made nearly $1B at the box office) or countless other in development titles but it seems weird for Disney to comment on it. 

I suppose I am pushing back on the thread saying "When was the last time that Disney officially announced a sequel and then didn't make it" line.

 

Disney hasn't officially announced a darn thing.  I'm all for tea leaf reading.  Do it enough myself.  Just... want to get ahead of this talking point before it takes root, I suppose.

[Jiffy]

When is Canada going to re-open theaters?

 

Also dual release model needs to get gone ASAP.

 

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

edit: TJB sequel news doesn't have a statement from Disney for instance https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/jungle-book-2-works-jon-882624/

 

Eh.  Different times, different situations.  I mean, Disney has a lot of reasons to try to fluff up Cruella, including trying to buff up its immediate numbers on D+, that didn't apply to The Jungle Book (which was a smashing success at the time).  

 

Mostly I think we don't have a big enough sample size to really comment on this situation. I think the nearest analogue isn't JB2, but Solo and the immediate reports of more anthology films still being made while Solo was doing... less than expected.  I know there was a report just before the film bowed about Boba Fett, but I seem to recall some sort of happy talk from the studio immediately after MDW as well in regards to Solo and the state of the SW franchise.  Could be misremembering, and I'm not about to take the time to dig into the news articles at the time, so consider this a side point.

 

I suppose I just think there's other explanations for that PR blast than "Yep! This is confirmed since studios usually ignore these stories".   

Edited June 5, 2021 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Disney hasn't said anything officially about making a Cruella sequel.  

 

We have a report from THR about it being in "early development", true.  But from Disney itself?  Nada, zilch, nope.

 

Plus, gotta say, as a SW fan I now take such stories about films being in "early development" with at least a bit of skepticism.  Or, to be more precise, just because something is in "early development" (very probably true) doesn't mean it actually gets made.

Well the THR exclusive about the sequel being confirmed contains a statement from Disney itself talking about the good numbers and reception overall.

 

To me they're endorsing the report, so it's official. If it's not true they would decline a statement for them or just say it's not true.

 

But i understand other people can have different interpretations about it.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Eh.  Different times, different situations.  I mean, Disney has a lot of reasons to try to fluff up Cruella, including trying to buff up its immediate numbers on D+, that didn't apply to The Jungle Book (which was a smashing success at the time).  

 

Mostly I think we don't have a big enough sample size to really comment on this situation. I think the nearest analogue isn't JB2, but Solo and the immediate reports of more anthology films still being made while Solo was doing... less than expected.  I know there was a report just before the film bowed about Boba Fett, but I seem to recall some sort of happy talk from the studio immediately after MDW as well in regards to Solo and the state of the SW franchise.  Could be misremembering, and I'm not about to take the time to dig into the news articles at the time, so consider this a side point.

 

I suppose I just think there's other explanations for that PR blast than "Yep! This is confirmed since studios usually ignore these stories".   

Close after the release of Solo there are articles of both lead and director saying there aren't any sequel in the works.

 

I think you're misremembering. 

 

[Porthos]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

To me they're endorsing the report, so it's official.

 

Nah.  If Disney wanted to make it official, they would.  I'll site the Kevin Feige is gonna make a Star War story that was broken by a trade as opposed to being announced by LFL/Disney.  Most of the time, Disney flat out ignores or demurs comment on such stories (not that it stops us from talking about it).  But there?  Disney actually confirmed it.  And before folks say, "Well, that's Feige, that's different", I agree to a point, but rumors about what A-list producers/directors are gonna be attached to are rampant in Hollywood. From what I can tell, it's pretty rare for a studio to actually announce something through a trade and not their own PR ecosystem.

 

So if Disney wanted to make this official through a trade, they could.  They didn't. 

 

Now, again, I ain't saying this isn't under "early development". Very very likely is.  Just doesn't mean it ever get greenlit, never mind sees the light of day. 

[Jamiem]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Eh.  Different times, different situations.  I mean, Disney has a lot of reasons to try to fluff up Cruella, including trying to buff up its immediate numbers on D+, that didn't apply to The Jungle Book (which was a smashing success at the time).  

 

Mostly I think we don't have a big enough sample size to really comment on this situation. I think the nearest analogue isn't JB2, but Solo and the immediate reports of more anthology films still being made while Solo was doing... less than expected.  I know there was a report just before the film bowed about Boba Fett, but I seem to recall some sort of happy talk from the studio immediately after MDW as well in regards to Solo and the state of the SW franchise.  Could be misremembering, and I'm not about to take the time to dig into the news articles at the time, so consider this a side point.

 

I suppose I just think there's other explanations for that PR blast than "Yep! This is confirmed since studios usually ignore these stories".   

We will likely never know for sure, because for all the success of TJB that didn't get a sequel when all was said and done for numerous reasons, which can be the same for any film they can fall apart at any time during pre, filming or sometimes even post production. 

 

Also as we know from Cars box office figures can sometimes be misleading (although I'm not expecting gigantic merchandise sales fro Cruella) and there are other factors in this case PA which is a huge unknown and we don't even have any reliable third party data yet, my gut tells me it is lower than Raya and Mulan but I certainly can't be sure about that. 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Close after the release of Solo there are articles of both lead and director saying there aren't any sequel in the works.

 

I think you're misremembering. 

 

Side point.  I said it was a side point!   Anywho, I know there weren't plans for a Solo sequel, even in the immediate aftermath of Solo's debut.  Hell, I was pushing back on Solo sequels being greenlit before the flick ever came out.  I was talking about other "anthology" films, like the Boba Fett one, allegedly still being made despite Solo's implosion.

 

(knew I shouldn't have mentioned this without taking an hour or three to nail down the sources of what I was referring to. 😕)

 

Anyway, like I said:  Side point.

[Jamiem]

A side note on the side point of Solo killing the anthology (Star Wars Story 🙃) films and their relation to Disney Live Action adaptations.  

 

Disney+ pretty much is the home of the Star Wars Story now with Kenobi, Rogue One Prequel etc. Although the likely over performance of Mando probably had just as much if not more to do with that as Solo under performing.

 

Disney+ is also the home of the lesser live action adaptations with Lady and the Tramp and in the future Peter Pan and Wendy, Pinocchio etc. moving there, so don't think Cruella was going to change much in that regard as it already happened. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

There's probably a bit of both happening with that announcement. I'm sure Disney is pretty happy so far with Cruella's performance at the moment that a sequel is on the cards but with how quick the announcement was it's to also make sure Cruella continues to be talked about in the moviesphere. 

 

The Lion King for example took much longer for an announcement for a sequel and Aladdin there was talks of new writers for a sequel but no official word from Disney. 

[cax16]

2 hours ago, Jiffy said:

When is Canada going to re-open theaters?

 

Also dual release model needs to get gone ASAP.

 

Each province is opening on their own timelines. I live in Ontario which is like 40% of Canada’s population and they probably won’t be open here till early July at the earliest, more likely mid-late July. It all depends on case counts and hospitalizations. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2nd Friday drops of last few Memorial Day releases. / 2nd weekend drop

 

Aladdin - 51.4% / 53.2%
Solo - 61.8% / 65.2%

PoTC 5 - 65% / 64.9%

Alice Through Looking Glass - 61% / 57.8%

 

and

AQP 2 - 56%

Cruella - 48%

 

The drops were really good this week for both holdovers. There wasn't much growth on SAT last week and Sunday actually dropped, so 2nd weekend hold may be even closer to Aladdin for AQP2. Now don't think I need to remind you how great trending Aladdin had.

 

We are looking at probably 21.5M for AQP2 and 11.5M for Cruella, i.e. 54.8% drop for AQP2 and 47% for Cruella, former close to Aladdin and latter even better. So if anyone has any doubts on Friday drop please quit them.

 

From the above weekend numbers, if the legs followed above mentioned 4 films, the finals will be as follow. Remember the legs have been better than normal during pandemic. If they follow; (AQP2 / Cruella)

 

Aladdin - 3.97x (175 / 90)

Solo - 2.25x (139 / 70)

PoTC 5 - 2.6x (147 / 74)
Alice 2 - 2.35x (141 / 71)

 

I am inclined to think more toward Aladdin numbers, with Canada having some reopening next week, that will contribute to back loading of film. That said I don't think anyone should feel bad for 150-175M for AQP2 and 80-90M for Cruella because that's where they are heading.

[Legion Again]

Yeah, more of the gross is being shifted into weekdays around now as well.