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Eric Riley

Weekend Thread (6/11-13) | Friday #s - ln the Flops 5M, Peter Floppit 2 4M

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2 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

HBO Max viewing figures are the only thing that will settle that. If it was disproportionately huge for Max then it obviously hurt it theatrically, if the viewing figures were weak then it’s definitely a case of overhyped demand. We’ll only know that if WB release the numbers which you’d imagine they’ll do to try and save face if it got good numbers. If they stay quiet then we know it didn’t do well there either.

This doesn't make sense, why would hbo max portion need to be disproportionately huge to evidence the impact? Those viewership, regardless how small they are, representing the potential audience or repeat viewing, even if only 20% turn out , still a cut from box office number or 20m if follow GvK number, that is quite a notable cut.  

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Is In the Heights the first musical we can really claim fizzled despite having seemingly everything going for it? The previous adaptations of iconic/popular musicals (Phantom of the Opera, Rent, The Producers, Rock of Ages, Jersey Boys, Cats, etc.) all had the excuse of mediocre (or worse) reviews to fall back on. Hopefully the takeaway from this is that interest in this particular musical only went so far and not the dumb "audiences say they crave better diversity on the big screen and then don't show up when we give it to them" belief.

Edited by filmlover
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I think ultimately the question is how can you create an event when your product is so easily accessible to people without time and cost constraint? Put it in a sexist way, which boy will appreciate an easy girl? There is hardly any premium experience or emotional investment out of this.

 

Watching a musical from small-mid screen is hardly any exclusive than watching a music video from You tube. Can watching you tube clip a worthy event?  

 

 

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10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Wut

 

 

 

 

IDK, but Green Book was surprisingly big in China - it's the bargaining stage for this stan, hoping there’s a miracle for ITH.

 

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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I thought this was an interest point from Deadline's writeup (which primarily blames the IP):

 

Quote

Also, let’s not forget that the core audience for musicals is an older demographic. But that group is more cautious than younger people and less likely to go to cinemas during a pandemic. Fifty-one percent of In the Heights‘ audience on PostTrak fell between 18-34. On CinemaScore 67% were over 25, 49% over 35.

 

 

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1 minute ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

IDK, but Green Book was surprisingly big in China - it's the bargaining stage for this stan.

 

 

Green Book coming off fresh as Oscar winner that local distributor heavily promote using it. 

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In The Heights is 96% on RT, any other wide releases likely to challenge this for best reviewed film of the summer? 

 

Most impressive number of the weekend is that Conjuring opening in France, wow. 

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1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Scott hits on all the major points

 

 

 

People give Scott a ton of shit, and I understand why. But as a person who doesn't particularly care about musicals (just not my bag), I read that article and said, "Yep.  All points sound right to me."

 

I don't think all points he raises are created equal, and I do think that things can be flukey enough that if even one thing changes, maybe it takes off.

 

On the other hand, Scott raises an excellent point that The Greatest Showman is the exception, not the norm.  

 

In the Heights for whatever reason didn't really grab folks attention.  The whole "can lead a horse to water" type deal.

 

The only thing I think Scott misses here is that there is a huge glut of movies coming out over the next few months.  I just don't think one can stuff nearly two years worth of movies into a nine month period (Apr-Dec) and not expect there to be causalities. 

 

I think a lot of films are gonna "underperform"/flop simply because even if streaming wasn't an option, only so many entertainment dollars to go around.  And even a person who might be inclined to see In the Heights or Peter Rabbit 2 will hold off and wait to see something slightly buzzier or already decided to go see a flick earlier in the month/last month.   It's not like we weren't already seeing this before the pandemic, and just squishing films together like an comical Dagwood sandwich is just gonna make that phenomenon worse. 

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38 minutes ago, KC7 said:

I thought this was an interest point from Deadline's writeup (which primarily blames the IP):

 

 

 

Variety also made a similar point in their article about the numbers yesterday that adult audiences are the one demographic that still hasn't shown signs of a significant return to multiplexes yet. Guessing Respect will be the next big test in August since that will only be in theaters when it comes out.

Edited by filmlover
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46 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

People see movies like In the Heights as streaming events moreso than theatrical. $11M OW on a $55M budget is undoubtedly a flop. :(

Do they? Recent musical box office successes would say otherwise. 
This was put on streaming day one, and many audiences watched it that way. 
 

$11M OW on a $55M budget isn’t good for a movie purely in theaters. That’s not the case here though, so I disagree entirely on both points. 
 

Again, this movie is playing for free with the click of a button in 2160p HDR for the world. This cannot be tossed aside as a minor thing. 

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No one say that being at HBO Max didn't hurt it.

 

Day on date will ALWAYS hurt the box office in some level. The question is that the difference is not enought to transform a huge movie into a disaster just because of that.

 

We have tons of movies released at the same day or very close at home, and pretty much all of them opened pretty fine.

 

The question here is that ITH bombed hard, and honestly, you think this 11M debut would transform into 25-30M if it wasn't HBO Max? It doesn't make sense.

 

If it wasn't the streaming, yes it would debut higher, probably around 15-16M and would still be seeing as a meh result at best, so we have to think about other reasons that not "OMG streaming destroy the entire movie potential", because this didn't happen with other movies released in the same circunstances.

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Well, in the unwanted welcoming news, at least AQP2 claim number 1 position , in time for its status as first 100m grosser in the pandemic era. Only that saturday bump of 22% is a bit too soft. 

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1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

No one say that being at HBO Max didn't hurt it.

 

Day on date will ALWAYS hurt the box office in some level. The question is that the difference is not enought to transform a huge movie into a disaster just because of that.

 

We have tons of movies released at the same day or very close at home, and pretty much all of them opened pretty fine.

 

The question here is that ITH bombed hard, and honestly, you think this 11M debut would transform into 25-30M if it wasn't HBO Max? It doesn't make sense.

 

If it wasn't the streaming, yes it would debut higher, probably around 15-16M and would still be seeing as a meh result at best, so we have to think about other reasons that not "OMG streaming destroy the entire movie potential", because this didn't happen with other movies released in the same circunstances.


In the Heights isn’t a franchise movie, or known major IP though is it? 
 

in my opinion this has been the movie that’s been hurt the most by the day and date farce. 
 

It needed the exclusivity more than any other movie. Any chance it had from WOM is also going to be massively hit by being online for free. 
 

Look, it’s just my opinion. I’m very, very unhappy with what a couple of the big studios are doing to the movie business and the art of film.  I think it’s horrible that media will be calling out ITH’s bad numbers when it’s the studios that are making this happen. 
 

You might well believe it wouldn’t have done that much better, and you might well be right. It never had the chance though. For a nice OW , or a lengthy run to build momentum.   I mean, there’s no chance these guys will want to work with WB in its current guise going forward.  They have a real problem on their hands as far as retaining talent for future projects. 

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