Weekend Thread (6/11-13) | Friday #s - ln the Flops 5M, Peter Floppit 2 4M

[Krissykins]

People can’t complain when someone uses Grace Randolph as a source and yet Scott Mendelson keeps being brought up lol. 
 

He’s a hack, let’s stop including him. 

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

People can’t complain when someone uses Grace Randolph as a source and yet Scott Mendelson keeps being brought up lol. 
 

He’s a hack, let’s stop including him. 

Mendelson makes some good points at times

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

People can’t complain when someone uses Grace Randolph as a source and yet Scott Mendelson keeps being brought up lol. 
 

He’s a hack, let’s stop including him. 

Might be a hack, but his analysis was pretty spot on.

 

I understand why people hate on Scott, he is faaaaaaaaar Too Online for this own good, and he has a bee in his bonnet about SH flicks.  But that doesn't stop his analysis from being good when he reigns in his more Too Online tendencies.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.    
 

And sometimes two broken clocks are right at once (Mendelson and The-numbers weekend predictions).

[Eric Duncan]

The weird hatred for Scott Mendelson here has always baffled me. He's an entertaining writer, I always enjoy reading his viewpoints, even when I disagree, and he has a good idea on what he's talking about IMO. It just seems like people hate him here because he doesn't think exactly like them in terms of box office, and like...you know that no writer will think exactly like you, right?

[WittyUsername]

Scott Mendelson makes some of the dumbest and most pointless “analyses” I’ve ever seen from a mainstream journalist. 

[ThomasNicole]

19 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

In the Heights isn’t a franchise movie, or known major IP though is it? 
 

in my opinion this has been the movie that’s been hurt the most by the day and date farce. 
 

It needed the exclusivity more than any other movie. Any chance it had from WOM is also going to be massively hit by being online for free. 
 

Look, it’s just my opinion. I’m very, very unhappy with what a couple of the big studios are doing to the movie business and the art of film.  I think it’s horrible that media will be calling out ITH’s bad numbers when it’s the studios that are making this happen. 
 

You might well believe it wouldn’t have done that much better, and you might well be right. It never had the chance though. For a nice OW , or a lengthy run to build momentum.   I mean, there’s no chance these guys will want to work with WB in its current guise going forward.  They have a real problem on their hands as far as retaining talent for future projects. 

Well it kinda is, to be honest.

 

Is a very celebrate IP on broadway, have Lin Manuel which was very beloved and is being more hyped everyday, it have a pretty strong presence and expectations on social media, along with stellar reviews.

 

People here and even some official predictions are expecting 25M or even 30M debut exactly because it's not really an original IP without hype.

 

The thing is that all of it going in it's favor doesn't seem to have turn into box office numbers, and while i respect your vision, i still don't believe numbers would be completely different than what it is now if it wasn't at HBO Max.

[kkccoo]

I am afraid that movies in theaters will be like fan events afterwards. Only fans of that movie are going to buy tickets for theaters. Just like music events. Only fans attend.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

has a good idea on what he's talking about IMO.

Well, I mean, this is probably the main disagreement, right? He just doesn’t have his facts and projections straight often enough for my taste.    
 

Or at least, he didn’t back when I read his articles, I can’t rule out that the last few years of articles were a big improvement on that front and simply superb.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Webslinger]

Definitely disappointing for In the Heights, though it kinda felt like the writing was on the wall heading into the weekend as far as a softer-than-expected performance was concerned. I would say it probably comes down to a combination of factors already mentioned: the simultaneous availability on HBO Max (which is a shame since the musical numbers look and sound great in a theatrical setting), the overestimation of the power of this film's connections to Hamilton through Miranda and Crazy Rich Asians through Chu, and the difficulty of trying to re-harness the buzz that was building around the film after its first trailer dropped pre-pandemic.

 

But at least the upside is that A Quiet Place: Part II gets to return to #1, mirroring the chart performance of its predecessor. After such a long time of looking at soft numbers or no numbers at all, it's really satisfying to finally see a film cross $100 million domestically.

[Eric Duncan]

8 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Well, I mean, this is probably the main disagreement, right? He just doesn’t have his facts and projections straight often enough for my taste.    
 

Or at least, he didn’t back when I read his articles, I can’t rule out that the last few years of articles were a big improvement on that front and simply superb.

Okay. Even then, that's only a fraction of what he writes about. He discusses box office in a broader context, talks about movie anniversaries and what their success represents, as well as reports on trailers and film news. And yeah, I haven't had any major problems or felt he did poorly on those fronts. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I do think the whole "he's a hack" and visceral hatred towards him is really unfair because he is an interesting guy who has fun viewpoints.

[filmlover]

Broadway adaptations can definitely be tricky beasts, as even well-known properties aren't immune to tanking on the big screen (even if 9 times out of 10 it's because the movie adaptation flops quality-wise). In the Heights was always more of a gamble considering it didn't last very long on stage (closing after just 3 years) and didn't have anywhere near the same kind of instant name recognition that the biggest musicals have. Doesn't always mean the movie will sputter (the original production of Into the Woods closed after less than 2 years yet the movie did very well, although that is more likely because it was sold less as a Broadway adaptation and more as a star-studded fairy tale with the Disney brand behind it) but just goes to show that not all musicals are created equal.

[wildphantom]

17 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well it kinda is, to be honest.

 

Is a very celebrate IP on broadway, have Lin Manuel which was very beloved and is being more hyped everyday, it have a pretty strong presence and expectations on social media, along with stellar reviews.

 

People here and even some official predictions are expecting 25M or even 30M debut exactly because it's not really an original IP without hype.

 

The thing is that all of it going in it's favor doesn't seem to have turn into box office numbers, and while i respect your vision, i still don't believe numbers would be completely different than what it is now if it wasn't at HBO Max.

that’s cool. I guess we’ll never know. 
 

Regardless, these conversations around day and date releases are going to escalate as the weeks go on. We’ll get more and more evidence to form what the impact is. 
 

It is rattling. I know plenty on here like a good joke, as do I. Yet I am very worried the movies are going down an unnecessary rabbit hole. 
 

The one that riles me the most (as I’ve said before) is Disney putting Luca straight to Disney+. Way to go for the king of entertainment putting the big family movie of the summer on tv, when families would have no doubt loved to go and see it on the big screen. Memories are not made watching films at home for kids to fall in love with the medium.  
 

That Disney+ seems more important to them than the magic of the movies and foundation of their legacy - it really grates on me, and I’m their biggest fan. 

[Porthos]

In a vain attempt to try to move on from Scott M, I know this board was never in love with the first Peter Rabbit, but I do think there's not enough discussion about Peter Rabbit 2's underperformance.  Near as I can tell, it's not streaming anywhere, so really can't use that as an excuse.  The first one was a pretty leggy hit for its OW. And kids flicks have been something of the one thing that has weathered the pandemic better than others.

 

Yet this is just kinda sitting there.  Can't imagine caps were that much of a factor as it doesn't seem to need that many screens to get to a decent OW.

 

Maybe one was enough for the DOM market.  Or maybe it'll do something of a mini version of the first one and leg it out to something decent.

 

Still, if folks want to worry about The State of Movie Theaters, Peter Rabbit 2 just kinda flopping about (pun intended for once) is... Well not worrying in my mind, but I think it warrants more discussion,.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Porthos

[babz06]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

In a vain attempt to try to move on from Scott M, I know this board was never in love with the first Peter Rabbit, but I do think there's not enough discussion about Peter Rabbit 2's underperformance.  Near as I can tell, it's not streaming anywhere, so really can't use that as an excuse.  The first one was a pretty leggy hit for its OW. And kids flicks have been something of the one thing that has weathered the pandemic better than others.

 

Yet this is just kinda sitting there.  Can't imagine caps were that much of a factor as it doesn't seem to need that many screens to get to a decent OW.

 

Maybe one was enough for the DOM market.  Or maybe it'll do something of a mini version of the first one and leg it out to something decent.

 

Still, if folks want to worry about The State of Movie Theaters, Peter Rabbit 2 just kinda flopping about (pun intended for once) is... Well not worrying in my mind, but I think it warrants more discussion,.

its doing pretty well internationally so its a mixed bag.

[Porthos]

Just now, babz06 said:

its doing pretty well internationally so its a mixed bag.

I'm aware.  Hence my "Maybe one was enough for the DOM market".

 

Still, then the question turns to, in part, "Why is it doing better internationally than domestically?"

[Legion Again]

Ironically my explanation is a complete 180 from babz: it also dropped a lot OS so I had already priced in a sizable drop here.   
 

Not all the way to 10M mind you, but I had sort of been using SLOP2 as a primary comp, so... doesn’t feel like anything out of the ordinary to me.

[CrashBandicoot81]

I think We're just going to have to accept that BO is never going to return to what it was pre Pandemic. HBO Max, Disney Plus are all going to be long term investments for these film companies.

 

Anyway, if anything streaming will likely bring back the mid budget films that Hollywood has been neglecting in favor of big Superhero and Animated blockbusters

Edited June 13, 2021 by CrashBandicoot81

[Legion Again]

It is really funny to me how we seem to seesaw from “theatrical is back” to “theatrical is dead” as movies under and over perform on various weekends — just like they did in the before times.    
 

Any take of that nature is necessarily half baked since current data is pretty limited — but if you don’t want to wait until December or September or whatever, I recommend at least waiting until mid July and seeing how things look.

[Menor the Destroyer]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

In a vain attempt to try to move on from Scott M, I know this board was never in love with the first Peter Rabbit, but I do think there's not enough discussion about Peter Rabbit 2's underperformance.  Near as I can tell, it's not streaming anywhere, so really can't use that as an excuse.  The first one was a pretty leggy hit for its OW. And kids flicks have been something of the one thing that has weathered the pandemic better than others.

 

Yet this is just kinda sitting there.  Can't imagine caps were that much of a factor as it doesn't seem to need that many screens to get to a decent OW.

 

Maybe one was enough for the DOM market.  Or maybe it'll do something of a mini version of the first one and leg it out to something decent.

 

Still, if folks want to worry about The State of Movie Theaters, Peter Rabbit 2 just kinda flopping about (pun intended for once) is... Well not worrying in my mind, but I think it warrants more discussion,.

SLOP had great legs but the second one still dropped hard. Drops are fairly common with sequels to kids' movies.