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Eric Riley

Weekend Thread (6/11-13) | Friday #s - ln the Flops 5M, Peter Floppit 2 4M

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Very disappointing and sad number for a film I loved. It is discouraging to follow box office anymore - as said above, I think it might never be coming back. 300m might become the new 500m domestically, and 100m OW will become the new 160m OW. I really hope I'm wrong, and we can still make this a fun and exciting hobby. Two thoughts on In the Heights....

 

1. It seems very, very obvious to me that a musical would have a higher percentage of people who just stay home and stream it than a horror film where you get scared in a dark theater or a fan-driven big screen blockbuster. It wouldn't have saved it, but it seems blatantly obvious a movie like this would be impacted more by streaming than Godzilla vs Kong or Conjuring. 

 

2. Musicals are inherently niche, and I know alot of people that just will not see musicals. The ones who most often make fun of or dislike musicals tend to be younger people, including many younger people of color (anecdotal evidence from a theater kid). It's pretty obvious the main audience for musicals have traditionally been old white people. But to the old white people who watch musicals, the trailers looked like a bunch of rap and Latin dancing (a stupid perspective, but def one that the rap haters had). So it was a disconnect between audiences for this. 

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15 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

It is really funny to me how we seem to seesaw from “theatrical is back” to “theatrical is dead” as movies under and over perform on various weekends — just like they did in the before times.    
 

Any take of that nature is necessarily half baked since current data is pretty limited — but if you don’t want to wait until December or September or whatever, I recommend at least waiting until mid July and seeing how things look.

If it makes you feel better, I’m still on the “theatrical is dead” and “GvK/Memorial Day is a fluke” camp. I’m no wishy-washy hack that changes my mind every weekend. :nudgewink:
 

Besides, Mickey’s Law and audiences rejection of midbudget fare meant theatrical died spiritually ages ago

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Big drops are common to any sequel (except the MCU).   
 

Yet it’s hard to get big budget nonsequels greenlit (except for CBMs).   
 

Yet small and mid budget fare often disappoints.   
 

A rather vexing trio of observations (unless you’re a total artistic nihilist like me who would happily chug down 10 MCUs a year and little else if that is what Hollywood became ;) ).
 

BUT my point is moreso that these were a frequent topic of discussion in 2018 and 2019 — returning from covid to box office “normalcy” is not going to be returning from covid to some kind of everything-can-be-as-successful-as-its-fans-hope utopia. Surprise underperformance weekends are a big part of normalcy.

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i dont know  why some of you are suprised the way i see it is like this : its a musical movie that someone can see for free in his/her home , why should someone pay more money to see it in the movie theaters, its not a big spectale nor a horror movie (in that case , its a better experience to see this kind of movie, in cinemas) .As for peter rabbit not suprised again , no hype at all the first one was almost certainly a break out hit like the life of pets 1 and now that the curiosity left we see the franchises real worth . Both a quiet place 2 and cruella had very good holds. Also i am still on the theatrical is alive if a movie like fast 9 has idk 40 ow  then maybe i will change my mind but i wont change my mind  and declare cinemas dead bc 2 movies that may very well had similar results pre pandemic underperformed .

Edited by john2000
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10 minutes ago, Menor said:

SLOP had great legs but the second one still dropped hard. Drops are fairly common with sequels to kids' movies. 

 

Yet when SLOP2 came out, people were surprised by its underperformance, especially with the studio's track record, which while declining didn't signal the kind of drop SLOP2 had.  

 

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17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Yet when SLOP2 came out, people were surprised by its underperformance, especially with the studio's track record, which while declining didn't signal the kind of drop SLOP2 had.  

 

True, but my main point was that SLOP2 wasn't a signal of some sort of box office apocalypse. If anything, I find that the holds this weekend have been pretty encouraging on the "return to normalcy" front, even if the openers have disappointed. 

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Not shocked this bombed at all, terrible marketing. Reminds me of RENTs release back in the day. 

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Peter Rabbit 2 OW is far more problematic than ITH for theater's future (or lack of it). ITH is online on every site and on HBO MAX. Meanwhile PR is a sequel of hit movie that isn't available on streaming or PVOD and yet it bombed.

Edited by CJohn
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Yeah Peter Rabbit is just following in the footsteps of most of these CG hybrid kids movies. This, Smurfs, Garfield, etc. all have the issue where the first movie was big, and families liked it okay, but the movie’s not interesting or good enough to make people crave a continuation. Something like The Squeakquel is an anomaly and I’m still not sure why that of all things bucked the trend. Maybe it was the Single Ladies cover I dunno.

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12 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Yeah Peter Rabbit is just following in the footsteps of most of these CG hybrid kids movies. This, Smurfs, Garfield, etc. all have the issue where the first movie was big, and families liked it okay, but the movie’s not interesting or good enough to make people crave a continuation. Something like The Squeakquel is an anomaly and I’m still not sure why that of all things bucked the trend. Maybe it was the Single Ladies cover I dunno.

This is also basically a long-winded way of saying Sonic 2’s gonna flop probably

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I'm not sure there was anything particularly exciting about Peter Rabbit 2 from a marketing perspective, seemed like just more of the same as the first installment, which doesn't really help sell family sequels. I think under normal conditions, it would've only done around a mid-teens-or-so opening and probably wouldn't have been able to replicate the first movie's great holds quite so well.

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Still have a feeling PR2 will have a godly hold or even an increase next week. They moved the date up too close to release to fix the marketing (and of course nothing is really opening next weekend)

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Peter Rabbit's kind of an inexplicable one tbh, I just genuinely don't understand it's weekend trend (nearly 1M Thursday, 4M Friday, and only 10M weekend?). Seems strange for a kids film. 

 

Maybe Thursday previews are suddenly going to become much more important than they were even 2 years ago.

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11 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

This is also basically a long-winded way of saying Sonic 2’s gonna flop probably

 

To be fair to Sonic 2, unlike those other films, the first did seem to go out of its way to set up a sequel, and it has a fanbase that actually seems excited for it. It could buck the trend. Or not. Idk.

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