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2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $605M
2. Avatar 2 - $520M
3.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $470M
4. Jurassic World Dominion - $430M
5. Thor Love and Thunder - $402M
6. The Batman - $385M
7. Mario - $360M
8 .Lightyear - $350M
9. The Flash - $308M
10. Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse - $285M
11. Mission Impossible 7 - $240M
12. Black Adam - $233M
13. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - $220M
14. Turning Red - $216M
15. Top Gun Maverick - $208M
16. Searcher Clade - $186M
17. John Wick 4 - $184M
18. Morbius - $176M
19. Uncharted - $172M
20. Puss in Boots 2 - $168M

I think that Aquaman 2 will move to 2023, but if it stays in December 2021, I predict it will make 355M

Edited by Grebacio
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1. Avatar 2: 650M/2.8B

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 600M/1.3B

3. Jurassic World: Dominion: 435M/1.4B

4. Thor: Love and Thunder: 420M/1.25B

5. The Batman: 400M/975M

6. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness: 365M/1B

7. Lightyear: 285M/880M

8. Aquaman 2: 280M/1B (though I’m betting either this or Flash or both goes to 2023)

9. Mario: 265M/750M

10. The Flash: 250M/850M

 

Top Gun 2: 235M/775M

Mission: Impossible 7: 220M/835M

Clade: 205M/575M

Across the Spider-Verse: 190M/420M

Black Adam: 185M/600M

Sonic 2: 170M/435M

Turning Red: 165M/430M

Bullet Train: 160M/450M

John Wick 4: 155M/375M

Nope: 150M/240M

Salem’s Lot: 140M/250M

Lost City: 135M/280M

Minions: The Rise of Gru: 125M/590M

Creed III: 125M/265M

Elvis: 120M/270M

Scream 5: 110M/240M

Puss in Boots 2: 105M/465M

Halloween Ends: 100M/200M

DC League of Super Pets: 100M/250M

 

Transformers: 90M/350M

Bad Guys: 85M/240M

Morbius: 80M/200M

Fantastic Beasts 3: 80M/400M

Uncharted: 75M/255M

Bros: 70M

Bob's Burgers: 50M/100M

Edited by YourMother
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Covid will still be around next year and the competition will be stronger with would be hits released almost every week.

 

I'll say this

 

HITS

Black Adam - i see this doing over 300M

Bullet Train - this has a cool concept and i think it will be a good movie,

Jurassic World 3 - expect this to set the BO on fire again with OVER 1B

 

BOMBS (or underperformance based on expectations)

Top Gun 2 - i see this bombing big time with UNDER 100M. The target audience - older adults- is not coming back to theaters anytime soon

Avatar 2- this will not bomb, of course, but it will disappoint based on expectations.

The Flash - people expect this to do good, but i'm sensing a disappointment. UNDER 200M

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19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

These big Mario predictions are definitely reminding me of Detective Pikachu. 

Seems more like a $100-150m film at best. 

 

The big difference between the two is the companies.

 

1. Illumination knows how to market family films unlike WB and Mario will skew much younger, so it can be more suitable as counterprogramming.

 

 

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On 11/9/2021 at 2:39 AM, lab276 said:

I wouldn't expect anything to make it to the billion mark, the box office isn't coming back that quickly.

 

No Time To Die has passed $700m and will end up around $750m in the heart of one of the last waves of the pandemic.  

 

I can guarantee you multiple movies will make it to the $1b mark next year.  

 

The bigger "danger" is China either exiting the Western box office or being cut out all together.  

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8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

No Time To Die has passed $700m and will end up around $750m in the heart of one of the last waves of the pandemic.  

 

I can guarantee you multiple movies will make it to the $1b mark next year.  

 

The bigger "danger" is China either exiting the Western box office or being cut out all together.  

 

Yep to both of these. 

If China is in the game, I see 7-8 films crossing a billion.

If China is out of it, probably 3. 

 

Edited by VenomXXR
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.1.Avatar (if it really comes out in 2022)- 1.7 Bi  WW (550m Dom).

.2.Black Panther 2 (if it really comes out in 2022)- 1.2 bi WW (600m Dom).

.3.Jurassic World 3- 1.2 Bi WW (420m Dom).

.4.Aquaman  (if it really comes out in 2022)- 1.120 Bi WW (350m DOM).

.5.Lightyear - 1 bi (480m Dom)

.6.The Batman- 950m WW (410m Dom) 

.7.Strange 2 - 900m WW (360m Dom)

.8.Thor 4 - 860m WW (320m Dom)

.9.Mission Impossible 7- 750m WW (200m Dom) 

10.Minions Rise of Gru- 720m WW (180m Dom).

11.Black Adam - 700m WW (210m Dom)

12.Turning Red -670m WW (280m Dom)

13.The Flash - 630m WW (250m Dom)

14.Top Gun 2 - 530m WW (250m Dom)

15.Spider Verse 2- 450m WW (200m Dom)

 

Edited by Marcos12
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Tbf while I do think the new variant will inevitably have any effect on box office and film production, I don’t think the film industry is completely doomed or even the 2022 slate. We’ll likely see a lot more pushback dates but the good news is that the vaccines are still working despite the mutations. 

 

However, I am starting to think maybe the days where films cruised by 300m domestic and 1B worldwide with ease will become far more rare than usual. 

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On 11/14/2021 at 11:12 AM, YourMother said:

1. Avatar 2: 650M/2.8B

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 600M/1.3B

3. Jurassic World: Dominion: 435M/1.4B

4. Thor: Love and Thunder: 420M/1.25B

5. The Batman: 400M/975M

6. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness: 365M/1B

7. Lightyear: 285M/880M

8. Aquaman 2: 280M/1B (though I’m betting either this or Flash or both goes to 2023)

9. Mario: 265M/750M

10. The Flash: 250M/850M

 

Top Gun 2: 235M/775M

Mission: Impossible 7: 220M/835M

Clade: 205M/575M

Across the Spider-Verse: 190M/420M

Black Adam: 185M/600M

Sonic 2: 170M/435M

Turning Red: 165M/430M

Bullet Train: 160M/450M

John Wick 4: 155M/375M

Nope: 150M/240M

Salem’s Lot: 140M/250M

Lost City: 135M/280M

Minions: The Rise of Gru: 125M/590M

Creed III: 125M/265M

Elvis: 120M/270M

Scream 5: 110M/240M

Puss in Boots 2: 105M/465M

Halloween Ends: 100M/200M

DC League of Super Pets: 100M/250M

 

Transformers: 90M/350M

Bad Guys: 85M/240M

Morbius: 80M/200M

Fantastic Beasts 3: 80M/400M

Uncharted: 75M/255M

Bros: 70M

Bob's Burgers: 50M/100M

Judging by China seemingly exiting or at the minimum reducing the amount of foreign films there I’ll update my predictions soon.

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https://deadline.com/2021/12/global-box-office-projection-2022-33-billion-1234891467/

 

Quote

Taking an early look at 2022, Gower Street Analytics is projecting global box office to reach $33.2B next year. That would rep a 58% increase on 2021 if the current year stays on track for the London-based firm’s projected approximate $21B (this is a slightly revised number from its October prediction for the year, in part owing to some Hollywood films not securing China dates through December). Gower Street estimates 2021 worldwide box office stood at $19.2B as of December 11, repping a roughly 75% increase on 2020.

 

Gower suggests the industry will need to wait at least until 2023 to see a full return to pre-pandemic global box office levels of over $40B.

 

The domestic, Chinese and international markets are all poised for improvement in 2022. However, says Gower Street, the most notable gain is expected to be in North America. Currently projected to hit $9.2B in 2022, up from an estimated $4.4B in 2021, that would see it move back up to its pre-pandemic position as the No. 1 global box office market, having been overtaken by China in both 2020 and 2021 — presuming the PRC comes in at the firm’s $8.2B 2022 forecast. This year, that market has already passed RMB 45B ($7.1B), up 128% in dollar terms from 2020, but still not as high as 2019. China remains difficult to predict given advance release information is not widespread and that the market has held back on releasing major Hollywood titles of late.

 

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Spider-Man's breakout was definitely a shot in the arm (along with all the literal ones) for next year. These next few weeks will probably be difficult with the Omicron panic but things will hopefully look much better once we're past it.

 

Not gonna make any predictions though I think things may still be kinda depressed into the summer season, but if Covid is finally neutralized as a fatal threat by then I'm optimistic the box office will return to its pre-2020 levels, which would definitely be a good thing for Avatar.

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25 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Spider-Man's breakout was definitely a shot in the arm (along with all the literal ones) for next year. These next few weeks will probably be difficult with the Omicron panic but things will hopefully look much better once we're past it.

 

Not gonna make any predictions though I think things may still be kinda depressed into the summer season, but if Covid is finally neutralized as a fatal threat by then I'm optimistic the box office will return to its pre-2020 levels, which would definitely be a good thing for Avatar.

 

I'm hopeful that Omicron burns itself out pretty fast (relatively speaking.) 

As for Avatar 2, if we're still dealing with this shit after another year (in terms of lockdowns and restrictions) then IMO it they failed. Also, I really just want A2 to get a China release. I want to see what it can do there. 

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Currently, I predict both Thor and MoM to make more domestically than BP:WF

 

Avatar 2, I have no fucking clue. My range is $300M-EG levels Domestic. But, if it gets a China release it will end up being the highest grossing movie of all time worldwide. 

Edited by CloneWars
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7 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Currently, I predict both Thor and MoM to make more domestically than BP:WF

 

Avatar 2, I have no fucking clue. My range is $300M-EG levels Domestic. But, if it gets a China release it will end up being the highest grossing movie of all time worldwide. 

What makes you think this? I just don’t see that happening.

 

I just find it funny how bunch of these predictions have the MCU sequels increase from their prequels by a lot except BP2. I know BP2 has had a “troubled” production, but so did DS2. Troubled production doesn’t mean the film will turn out not to be good. I just don’t see Coogler making a bad film.

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1 Avatar 2: 1b+/4b+ ww

2 Jurassic World: Dominion: 600+/1.5bww 

3 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 600M/1.5b

4. Thor: Love and Thunder: 580M/1.2b ww

Doctor Strange 2: 550m/1.2b

Black Adam: 350m/900-950 ww

Aquaman 2: 200m hardly with Avatar opening. 550m/1b ww changing dates. 

Fantastic Beasts 3: 300/900

The Batman: 250/700 ww

Morbius: 200/550

 

Omicron and other variants are going in grave this year. I firmly believe that we will get rid of this shit very soon. 2022 is homecoming for box office. Especially for Avatar which will be the first Movie to break 1b barrier and if China doesn't ruin Christmas party then I'm pretty sure A2 will cross 4 billions. 

P. S: if we don't have anything like Omicron and A2 doesn't do1b I'll jump from first floor. 

Edited by Anduin
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