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Eric Onion

2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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Avatar would be interesting. Jim Cameron should not be underestimated for sure. That said I am expecting Marvel to dominate Top 5 again along with Avatar. Batman and Aquabro etc in 6-10. Only movie that could surprise its way to Top 5 is Jurassic whatever. I did not like either one of the new movies but they are very popular and could bring in the young crowd for sure. 

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7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

the thought that China would give Avatar 2 over $1,000,000,000

 

I mean, that's potentially not that far out of the realm of possibility. Avatar was the biggest film in China x 4 when it came out, and the re-release just made nearly $60M in China this year. Add in the fact that a film in China made over $900M this year and it's not that farfetched to think Avatar 2 could break $1B. I'd be more inclined to stick with something like $700M for now. 

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Top 10 WW Assuming with China

1. Avatar 2

2. Jurassic World: Dominion 

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. Thor: Love and Thunder

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

6. The Batman 

7. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

8. Lightyear

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru

10. Mission Impossible 7

 

Top 10 DOM

1. Avatar 2

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3. Jurassic World: Dominion 

4. Thor: Love and Thunder

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

6. The Batman 

7. Lightyear

8. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

9. Mission Impossible 7

10. The Flash

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I think an obvious byproduct of Covid is the return of true "event" films not at there aren't big blockbusters opening every other week. The big ones really, really stand out.

 

I think this likely helped SPIDER-MAN really explode like it did, and wonder if THE BATMAN will see something similar on opening weekend, too. 

 

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3 hours ago, excel1 said:

I think an obvious byproduct of Covid is the return of true "event" films not at there aren't big blockbusters opening every other week. The big ones really, really stand out.

 

I think this likely helped SPIDER-MAN really explode like it did, and wonder if THE BATMAN will see something similar on opening weekend, too. 

 

What helped Spiderman explode the way it did was mostly due to nostalgia of having OG characters/actors from the previous spiderman movies return. The Batman does not have that luxury nor does it seem to be leaning on nostalgia, it's just been selling itself as a new Batman movie. I think it will do well but not right out the gate like Spiderman did.

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I don't know how china will be with releases next year so $856 mil(Aquaman Total -China)  is WW number I'm looking for The Batman to defeat. I think it can do 900-1bil without china if the movie lives up to our hype, a good china release date could push it to Black Panther numbers but its not sniffing NWH, maybe the finale of the reeves trilogy can come close to that

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23 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

I think it can do 900-1bil without china if the movie lives up to our hype, a good china release date could push it to Black Panther numbers but its not sniffing NWH, maybe the finale of the reeves trilogy can come close to that

 

This would seem to indicate you think 'The Batman' would do over $350M in China if it releases their? 

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13 hours ago, Eric Smith said:

2022’s Most Anticipated Blockbusters

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Nov. 11)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Oct. 7)
The Batman (March 4)
Thor: Love and Thunder (July 😎
Jurassic World: Dominion (June 10)
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (May 6)
Avatar 2 (Dec. 16)
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Dec. 16)
Top Gun: Maverick (May 27)
Mission: Impossible 7 (Sept. 30)

Avatar 2 and Top Gun are the only two film that have zero exposure to the cinemagoers in the past decade, The rest have all kind of big screen appearance leading up to this anticipation. 

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On 11/8/2021 at 12:57 AM, James said:

Avatar 2 - 2.1B

Doctor Strange 2 - 1.4B

Jurassic World 3 - 1.35B

Thor 4 - 1.2B

The Batman - 1.15B

Black Panther 2 - 1.1B

Aquaman 2 - 1.1B

The Marvels - 970m

Lightyear - 950m

 

Updating this taking into account the China Marvel ban (not confirmed but very likely):

 

Avatar 2 - 2.3B 

Jurassic World 3 - 1.35B

Doctor Strange 2 - 1.15B

The Batman - 1.1B

Aquaman 2 - 1B

Thor 4 - 950m

Black Panther 2 - 850m

Lightyear - 820m

MI8 - 800m

 

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