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Eric Atreides

2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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2 hours ago, AniNate said:

Cameron uber alles. You challenge him at your own peril. 

 

And frankly quality wise there's far more uncertainty w/ Aquaman than Avatar. The original was already riding on mostly brand appeal to its success, I'm not sure that will fly so much with a sequel.

I concur. Especially with both movies focusing around the underwater theme, Aquaman will look cheap compared to Avatar. I don't think Disney will be the one to blink.

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Updated Predictions, Release Order 

 


Morbius

$38M OW - $96M DOM - $177M OS - $74M China 

 

Uncharted 
$44M OW - $103M DOM - $196M OS - $83M China 

 

The Batman

$146M OW - $370M DOM - $586M OS - $135M China 

 

Turning Red 
$59M OW - $178M DOM - $361M OS - $116M China 

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2

$68M OW - $166M DOM - $224M OS - $25M China 


Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore 

$53M OW - $122M DOM - $383M OS - $69M China 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness 

$171M OW - $429M DOM - $653M OS - $172M China 

 

Top Gun: Maverick 
$73M OW - $203M DOM - $284M OS - $45M China

 

Jurassic World: Dominion

$156M OW - $440M DOM - $625M OS - $293M China 

 

Lightyear 
$112M OW - $381M DOM - $540M OS - $51M China 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
$189M OW - $475M DOM - $640M OS - $183M China 

 

Black Adam 

$94M OW - $267M DOM - $371M OS - $88M China 

 

Misson Impossible 7

$80M OW - $239M DOM - $404M OS - $209M China 

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)
$66M OW - $215M DOM - $208M OS - $86M China 

 

The Flash 

$91M OW - $240M DOM - $316M OS - $110M China 


Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
$225M OW - $610M DOM - $628M OS - $127M China 

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom 

$95M OW - $303M DOM - $516M OS - $319M China 

 

Avatar 2

$152M OW - $540M DOM - $1210M OS - $775M China 

 

 

 

Notes: I will not be updating this list. These are my thoughts/opinions as to what these films will do BEFORE most of them start any major marketing or press. I want to see how accurate my long range thoughts are. I'm sure some will be horribly off and others will be surprisingly close. Obviously there are factors I can't account for but all of these are made under the assumption that there are no restrictions/lockdowns in any market during the films run and no other unforeseen issues. It also assumes all of these films maintain their current release date :) 

 

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3 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Do you know something the rest of us don't know about China?

 

Me? No. Hence why I broke it out from the rest of the international numbers. If something does or doesn't release there, my other numbers aren't effected. 

 

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About Avatar's Prediction, what are chances that Adults above 40, will start watching movies next year? Problem is Christmas - It will be time When New Corona Variant will come again. Only Young Adults/Young people will come out in horde and those people will skew more towards Aqua-man than Avatar.

 

I think initially Aquaman will stay ahead for few weeks and in late January is when Avatar will surpass Aquaman, but How far it can go - is too tough to tell without even watching the trailers.

 

Another thing is - Cameron has delivered decades after decades, so the concept of  "World has changed" doesn't really apply to his movies. Maybe, Avatar will be the movie which will make the Adults above 40+ really move out and go watch Cinema again and If that happens ~ Few Billions are going down.

Edited by Shanks
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I think people over 40 will come out for a big tentpole like Avatar, they just won't come out for adult drama's during a pandemic, assuming COVID doesn't drastically worsen to like 2020 levels or something, there's probably a good 10-12 movies that are "pandemic proof" imo next year

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Avatar opening weekend demos...from Deadline...no diversity breakdowns, but even opening weekend, this skews to an older audience (without now counting the years since the 1st one)...https://deadline.com/2009/12/first-word-avatar-midnights-only-3-million-even-with-higher-3d-ticket-prices-hollywood-now-predicting-85m-weekend-20507/

 

"The pic received a Cinemascore of “A” across every qu(a)drant. In terms of audience demos, exit polling showed 57% male/43% female, and 38% under age 25/62% over age 25."

 

 

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1 minute ago, Maggie said:

domestic

 

Hmm yea, could. There are 4 $300M+ DOM films (IMO) through June and this is how I have them playing out...

 

1. Jurassic World Dominion ($440M)
2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($429M)
3. Lightyear ($381M)
4. The Batman ($370M) 
 

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6 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Hmm yea, could. There are 4 $300M+ DOM films (IMO) through June and this is how I have them playing out...

 

1. Jurassic World Dominion ($440M)
2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($429M)
3. Lightyear ($381M)
4. The Batman ($370M) 
 

The order sounds about right, but the grosses are too big imo. The movies will have competition next year. Them won't play alone for weeks.

Edited by Maggie
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11 minutes ago, Maggie said:

The order sounds about right, but the grosses are too big imo. The movies will have competition next year. Them won't play alone for weeks.

 

So? 2022 will be 98% normal after Omicron burns itself out. Hell, it hasn't stopped NWH from (eventually) going over $700M.

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Batman begins came after the last installment was the failed clooney version, this one gets to follow after arguably the greatest cb movie trilogy ever, heck even those mediocre tasm movies made like 600mil a piece iirc, if the batman is good its gonna do super numbers

 

 

Spoiler

When it comes to dr strange, the reports of the poorly recieved test screenings and reshoots without elizabeth olsen make me think it will have mediocre legs

 

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1. Avatar 2 (1.6B)

2. Black Panther 2 (1.2B)

3. Aquaman 2 (1.1B)

4. Dr Strange: Multiverse of Madness (1.1B)

5. Jurassic World: Dominion (1B)

6. The Batman (1B)

7. Thor 4 (850M)

8. Minions: Rise of Gru (850M)
9. The Flash (800M)

10. Black Adam or Mission Impossible (760M) 

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