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Father's Day weekend June 18 -20

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34 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Looks like it's going to be the super leggy hit that plays throughout the summer that In the Heights was supposed to be. $100M is probably too much to hope for unless it develops Raya/Croods-esque staying power but $90M+ is possible since it'll still be a while until theaters can be really forced to drop anything.

 

I would think Black Widow weekend will have huge theater drop for Cruella (with theaters trading Disney for Disney)...at least among the 12s and lower...

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Deadline justification for In the Heights is basically "we need more IP"

 

it’s whether the title possess product-driven power or not. Get it? It’s not about cinemas being dead, or people falling out-of-love with the movies.

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I would think Black Widow weekend will have huge theater drop for Cruella (with theaters trading Disney for Disney)...at least among the 12s and lower...

On the other hand, Disney is certain to pair them up for double features so the theater loss won't be significant (especially when things that aren't selling at all like In the Heights and Spirit Untamed will be dropped first).

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8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

With that 17M 5 days, a pure FSS would have been 15+ surely, I think its safe to assume box office is back to absolute normalcy. 

That include 2.6m from last weekend's preview and tuesday preview. 

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Agreed, Cruella will do a double feature with BW and Disney will get it over whatever milestone they find realistic. They pushed quite a few movies (insert fudge jokes). Nevertheless, the movie clicked with audience. Ditto AQP2 which is great cause AQP3 should be amazing given the set up. 

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23 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I would have predicted a $15 million OW for Hitman's Bodyguard 2 for the three day weekend in a pre-pandemic world, so honestly the 5 day is right in line with that expectation. Who asked for this?

 

Sad for In The Heights and sad as a lifelong progressive to see my own movement eating their own, eating a genuinely progressive film that should be seen, with a made up controversy. Sad sad sad. 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Cap said:

RIP The Movie Musical (1927-2021).

Ehhhh. I loveeee In The Heights (both show and movie) but even when talking to friends outside theater world most don't know what it is. It's a fairly unknown show. I just thought it would be like Crazy Rich Asians where people would discover what it was. Wicked will be huge if it ever comes out and West Side Story will bank as well if it doesn't totally suck like Cats did. Those are iconic shows. 

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1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Ehhhh. I loveeee In The Heights (both show and movie) but even when talking to friends outside theater world most don't know what it is. It's a fairly unknown show. I just thought it would be like Crazy Rich Asians where people would discover what it was. Wicked will be huge if it ever comes out and West Side Story will bank as well if it doesn't totally suck like Cats did. Those are iconic shows. 

Crazy rich asian have a fairy tale element. People love cinderella story, they are somehow very relatable regardless what race. 

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2 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

How dare you post anything about this putrid little freak

Agreed. Bill Maher has nothing but ill intentions ever. We should avoid cancelling and downing In The Heights, but if Maher had his way, we would never cancel or criticize or question anything.

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15 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deadline justification for In the Heights is basically "we need more IP"

 

 

Some folks thought they had an IP with In the Heights: Lin Manuel Miranda.  Turns out that while he is IMO undeniably talented (setting aside whether or not MPR was a disappointment at the box office, Moana proves he ain't a one-hit wonder), his name alone isn't enough to draw a crowd.  Not yet at least.

 

If we want to set absolutely everything else working against the film aside, I wonder if this isn't a source of a lot of the disappointment.  LMM's name wasn't enough to get people curious in the film and check it out.

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14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Ehhhh. I loveeee In The Heights (both show and movie) but even when talking to friends outside theater world most don't know what it is. It's a fairly unknown show. I just thought it would be like Crazy Rich Asians where people would discover what it was. Wicked will be huge if it ever comes out and West Side Story will bank as well if it doesn't totally suck like Cats did. Those are iconic shows. 


But those are both already in production. I doubt you’re going to get another one green lit and a very long time.

 

I mean, whatever. I’m just gonna go watch my Gene Kelly movies. 😂

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2 minutes ago, Cap said:


But those are both already in production. I doubt you’re going to get another one green lit and a very long time.

 

I mean, whatever. I’m just gonna go watch my Gene Kelly movies. 😂

If Wicked 2 comes out over next Thanksgiving as has been rumored, I think it does 175m+ and that def gets something else greenlit.

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Just now, Porthos said:

If we want to set absolutely everything else working against the film aside, I wonder if this isn't a source of a lot of the disappointment.  LMM's name wasn't enough to get people curious in the film and check it out.

That was kind of my point from the posts above. If he can’t get a musical to make big box office number is, I don’t know who can.

 

But on the other hand we live in a hell scape, so just our luck, dear Evan Hansen will open to like $100 million. And then you’re gonna have to find a new administrator for the forum, because I’m just gonna go off in a corner and I’m never going to return

 

Another random thought, is now I think we could probably get LMM As Joe in Sunset Boulevard with Glenn Close. Because maybe you should look at this, and not be threatened by him overshadowing her. Since obviously whoever plays Joe it’s going to be someone that is not going to overshadow the inevitable campaign for Glenn Close is getting her Oscar, If she doesn’t get the award, She’s going to go fatal attraction on who ever wins it

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1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

If Wicked 2 comes out over next Thanksgiving as has been rumored, I think it does 175m+ and that def gets something else greenlit.

Wicked has been in development hell for so long that I will believe it when I see it in a movie theater.

 

I also don’t know if it’s can I have that much pull in power. It’s right there up in the echelon of like Phantom of the opera or Cats or Les Mis And that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be a quality movie or that it’s going to be a big box office hit. 

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1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Also, not to be too optimistic or anything, but I genuinely do think F9 will have a better week of presales this week than the most pessimistic predictions are suggesting, and be a little more backloaded from previews to the rest of the weekend than folks are expecting as well. Just my instinct that the sales patterns for this franchise are a bit different, and IIRC Hobbs and Shaw kind of blew up over the final week a bit as well. 

 

57 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

This is my feeling as well. The Fast and Furious fanbase has never really acted as a big pre-seller as far as I've seen. I haven't purchased my tickets myself. A 65m opening is roughly what I'm expecting which would be about 1/3rd down from F8. I believe that lines up with a lot of other countries.

 

150m or so total maybe? So expecting AQP2 will be about 15m ahead in total. But I also think that's fine for F9 since fatigue is likely settling in.

 

53 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I was predicting around Logan numbers OW for F9 before COVID (85-90m range) so 65m or so would be right in that range with the obligatory 25% pandemic era reduction. I do think that 90 million or so is much more the normal range for the franchise now that they have gotten past what is clearly the peak (F7) and the afterglow (Fate).

From following the PS pretty closely, I’d take 65->175. Summer legs should be better than Easter legs.   
 

That would indeed be pretty in line with other countries, basically 0 % down from my non-pandemic expectations.

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