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Father's Day weekend June 18 -20

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9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm guessing Disney was already nervous about the movie's financial prospects while it was being made and given the global conditions, saw a good reason to use a force majeure on it. They could've given this (and Soul, for that matter) simultaneous releases even if it meant they still wouldn't have fared much better than Onward's impaled-by-circumstance total but hey, not much else to be said there. It's too bad that after making mostly sequels the past few years, Pixar made a couple of solid or better originals that ended up becoming victims to bad luck.

 

But on the bright side, it's still going to be up for awards, unlike In the Heights, which is dead for any recognition at this point given how the narrative they were pushing for it miserably failed.


Pixar winning another Best Animated Movie seems kinda uninteresting to me, it happens all the time. And ITH did get critical acclaim, it’s not exactly like it was rotten or anything. I don’t think either movie’s really a driving force on the streaming side — in terms of picking up new subs or retaining them, I feel like both movies are basically already targeting demos that are already subbed. Really, to me it seems like it just comes down to LUCA costing more overall and essentially having zero theatrical revenue. Not that ITH is doing good in that regard either, obviously, but budgetarily it comes in so much cheaper, so that helps a tad. 

Edited by Plain Old Tele
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14 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


Isn’t this just audiences being dumb, though?

 

I mean, LUCA’s a bit better than GOOD DINOSAUR, sure, is that really something to hang their hat on? Especially when it was significantly more expensive to make than HEIGHTS?

Well, unlike Good Dinosaur, Luca is receiving lots of praise from audiences (and have way better reviews too).

 

It have 4.2/5 from audiences on RT, 7.6 on IMDB, even on Letterboxd which is more difficult to get high grades since is more used by cinephiles, Luca have 3.9/5 with 50k votes already.

 

Also trend very well on social media the past days with lots of compliments across them.

 

I'm sure will bring big numbers for D+, and it probably would do pretty good at box office if they give it the chance. Also is probably locked to be nominated at Oscar.

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3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well, unlike Good Dinosaur, Luca is receiving lots of praise from audiences (and have way better reviews too).

 

It have 4.2/5 from audiences on RT, 7.6 on IMDB, even on Letterboxd which is more difficult to get high grades since is more used by cinephiles, Luca have 3.9/5 with 50k votes already.

 

Also trend very well on social media the past days with lots of compliments across them.

 

I'm sure will bring big numbers for D+, and it probably would do pretty good at box office if they give it the chance. Also is probably locked to be nominated at Oscar.


Why would it bring in big numbers on D+? Wouldn’t people who are Pixar or animation fans already be subscribed? The real numbers that matter (which we only vaguely see, and not tied to specific titles) are new subscribers and (to some

degree) stopping people from

canceling. In either case, LUCA doesn’t seem like a driving force.

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Just now, Plain Old Tele said:


Why would it bring in big numbers on D+? Wouldn’t people who are Pixar or animation fans already be subscribed?

Big numbers in views, like Soul did. Should clearer that.

 

At this point i doubt any movie will bring millions of subscribers for them because they're already too big and is growing more stable now.

 

But having a movie very well received by audiences like Soul and now Luca sure helps them to make people happy with the platform and more inclined to keep subscribed, especially families which seems to be their biggest target.

 

Despite the nonsense decision of not putting at theaters, it's more easy to me seeing Luca bringing something good for Disney than ITH for Warner since that movie fail not only in theaters but also at HBO Max and manage to get backlash from their own audience.

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38 minutes ago, grim22 said:

As @Porthossaid, Miranda isn't a big enough name to draw.

 

This is something I meant to mention to @Cap in her earlier reply to me when she said "if not him, then who?", but I was super busy this afternoon.

 

In a roundabout way, the "If not LMM then who" was kinda my point as well, but from the other direction.  He is a superstar inside the musical community, and a darling in Hollywood.  And it is absolutely true that he is known to the GA...

 

...

 

I just don't think he has built up enough of a cache with the GA to be a Name Producer/Writer.  YET

 

Like, let's take M. Night Shyamalan.  While his first film took folks by storm, it still took a couple of unexpected hits for M. Night Shyamalan to become M. Night Shyamalan.  

 

And it is one million percent true that LMM is a megastar inside the theater community.  When it comes to the General Audience film community though, how many of them know his films?  Like, if I stopped 100 random people leaving a showing of Moana, how many of them would know that he was the person behind the music?  And even if they did, how many people saw Hamilton in theaters and thus Hamilton as a film?  None, that's how many.  Thanks to the 'rona, sure.

 

But Hamilton not being in theaters is a factor, IMO.  Yes I know for a fact that Hamilton blew the doors off of D+ when it aired, but that's still not the theatrical experience and I wonder how much that subconsciously mattered to LMM's "brand".  Imagine what the Variety headlines about Hamilton would have done for LMM's reputation when it smashed at the box office (which I do think it would have)?  We'll never know of course, and it's a crying shame at that.  But I have to think it would helped.

 

It's all of this that makes me wonder how much of a cache he has a film producer/writer among the GA.  

 

Now if ITH comes to be seen as an "unappreciated when it was released but still great" film, that might help his reputation in time.  If LMM can release a couple of successful films that are thought of as his and his alone, that will help build his Name with the general audience.  As it is though, I tend to think that the GA thinks of him as "that really successful theater guy" and it turns out that wasn't enough on its own to get them interested in ITH as a film

 

So it's not questioning his talent. It's just questioning: How much does the GA care about him as a film producer/writer?

 

NB:  One disappointment at the box office is just that, of course. One. But all of the above is kinda where my headspace was at when I stopped to think "why didn't the GA become at least curious about Lin-Manuel Miranda's next film."

Edited by Porthos
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5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Big numbers in views, like Soul did. Should clearer that.

 

At this point i doubt any movie will bring millions of subscribers for them because they're already too big and is growing more stable now.

 

But having a movie very well received by audiences like Soul and now Luca sure helps them to make people happy with the platform and more inclined to keep subscribed, especially families which seems to be their biggest target.

 

Despite the nonsense decision of not putting at theaters, it's more easy to me seeing Luca bringing something good for Disney than ITH for Warner since that movie fail not only in theaters but also at HBO Max and manage to get backlash from their own audience.


This feels like a ton of spin that doesn’t really matter overall, but that’s okay, I’m probably unconsciously spinning the other way. I don’t really think there’s that much of a backlash at ITH — the internet isn’t particularly representative of the real world. Granted, there’s not much of an initial audience turnout for ITH either. 
 

tbh both movies seem like a general miss in sheer financial terms. Our own personal opinions about each end up being whether or not we find them meaningful.

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21 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


Pixar winning another Best Animated Movie seems kinda uninteresting to me, it happens all the time. And ITH did get critical acclaim, it’s not exactly like it was rotten or anything. I don’t think either movie’s really a driving force on the streaming side — in terms of picking up new subs or retaining them, I feel like both movies are basically already targeting demos that are already subbed. Really, to me it seems like it just comes down to LUCA costing more overall and essentially having zero theatrical revenue. Not that ITH is doing good in that regard either, obviously, but budgetarily it comes in so much cheaper, so that’s helps a tad. 

Oh yeah, In the Heights did get great reviews (and I was a fan of it tbh), but it's becoming clear that nothing could've persuaded most people to give it a chance in the first place even if its original June 2020 release had gone as planned (and fwiw I don't think the controversy has had any impact with the public - if it would have impact anywhere, it would be within the industry for awards and stuff, and I think it could've easily overcome it within that group too...if it had been the hit it was hyped to be, which it didn't, so now it's just one more bad headline the movie received). Just a complete overestimation of appeal.

 

I think Luca is still being released in theaters in countries that don't have D+ yet, so we'll see how it does there (Soul made $100M+ in said countries even as its US total was $0). But I don't think Disney is sweating it that much tbh, it's just one of many Ls they've had to take across all their different entertainment branches the past 15 months.

Edited by filmlover
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2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

. But all of the above is kinda where my headspace was at when I stopped to think "why didn't the GA become at least curious about Lin-Manuel Miranda's next film."


What’s crazy is that Netflix has his next movie which is the adaptation of Tick Tick Boom. Which is Jonathan Larson’s lesser known musical instead of rent. So even though we’re not gonna get box office numbers, it is interesting because he’s quickly up for that a third time to see if he can sell something. 
 

I also might have more to talk about in the morning. I want to sleep on the musical thoughts. 
 

PS, I don’t know if it’s a good thing that were comparing LMM to MNS. I don’t know if that bodes well for his career trajectory

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

So which studio “screwed up” their release more: Disney with LUCA or WB with ITH?

 

Yes

 

Spoiler

Proving there are plenty of ways to screw up a movie release

 

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@Porthos

 

Quote

"why didn't the GA become at least curious about Lin-Manuel Miranda's next film."

 

@filmlover

 

 

Quote

just a complete overestimation of appeal

 

 

This is what it is in regards to both the movie and LMM. ITH was not Hamilton and LMM wasn't the only thing about Hamilton that turned that one into a hit. Thematically, Hamilton had appeal [for people to check it out, whether they liked it is another matter]. Thematically, ITH didn't.

 

I don't know why we are back to "If X hit it big with X than audience should have embraced X's project Y". If the concept has very little appeal then fewer people will show up than they did for the concept with more appeal. Look at Marvel. They are the biggest brand in the world that sells everything but not all their IPs reach 1 billion. Some IPs have more appeal, some less which is why boxoffice isn't even. There's Ant Man (smallest franchise) and there's Avengers (biggest franchise). But, of course, if you operate with massive numbers, your smallest IP won't be a flop. LMM never had those numbers anyway. 

 

P.S. What's a [boxoffice] draw to one, may be a [boxoffice] poison to another depending whether they liked the project that made the name famous, or whether they like the name as a person or not. 

 

Edited by Valonqar
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10 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

So which studio “screwed up” their release more: Disney with LUCA or WB with ITH?

Easily Disney. 

Luca could have been a success, don't know what are they gaining from Luca on Disney+ and no theatrical at all. 

ITH would have bombed anyways probably.

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20 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:


This feels like a ton of spin that doesn’t really matter overall, but that’s okay, I’m probably unconsciously spinning the other way. I don’t really think there’s that much of a backlash at ITH — the internet isn’t particularly representative of the real world. Granted, there’s not much of an initial audience turnout for ITH either. 
 

tbh both movies seem like a general miss in sheer financial terms. Our own personal opinions about each end up being whether or not we find them meaningful.

 

I agree - I don't think there is much backlash for ITH - it was just a miss by audiences, and nothing after release helped, but release weekend was already horrid for online and in theaters, so it didn't matter much - what's $10M, tops, in lost theatrical revenue from a full BO run from this past week's dramas, really?...

 

As for Luca, it's obviously the huge release miss.  Now, I see audiences liked it, and being free, it gives you a happier audience member starting point, so I'm not gonna put too much faith in that number vs if it released and folks paid for it.  But, there's no doubt - it cost a ton more and it's making a lot less, b/c $0 is less than whatever ITH gets.

 

So, as far as screwing up a release, it's Disney by a mile.  Money talks, and well, you know the rest of the saying...

 

EDIT TO ADD: And I haven't even watched either movie yet, but I almost put ITH on but it was too late...so in the race for even getting my eyeballs, WB is closer than Disney:)...

 

And now I find out last week Boss Baby 2 is gonna be on my Peacock Premium - yet another free movie that I'm gonna maybe watch...but all of them are behind episodes of Loki and Superman and Lois for me (so when I don't have a lot of time, somehow things slip:)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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This fathers day, none of the film, no matter how father friendly they are, managed to get Fathers Day bump, compared to those in 2019, 6 films got Sunday bump because of father day. This is another dismal sign of box office recovery. 

1 (1) The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyg… Lionsgate $4,106,333 -3%   3,331 $1,233 $16,747,160 5
2 (2) A Quiet Place: Part II Paramount Pi… $2,734,478 -23% -22% 3,515 $778 $124,945,917 24
3 (3) Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway Sony Pictures $1,859,748 -20% -24% 3,346 $556 $20,307,047 10
4 (4) Cruella Walt Disney $1,398,195 -27% -30% 3,110 $450 $64,461,030 24
- (-) Spirit Untamed Universal $427,500 -33% -42% 2,967 $144 $13,777,385 17
- (-) Wrath of Man United Artists $157,652 -13% -30% 707 $223 $26,818,013 45
- (-) Queen Bees Gravitas Ven… $78,610 -27% -34% 600 $131 $910,142 10
- (-) The Sparks Brothers Focus Features $76,655 -14%   534 $144 $273,530 3
- (-) Spiral Lionsgate $46,096 -32% -55% 887 $52 $22,990,369 38
- (-) Raya and the Last Dragon Walt Disney $29,025 -42% -48% 252 $115 $54,350,983 108
- (-) Dream Horse Bleecker Street $28,500 -23% -10% 147 $194 $2,757,242 31
- (-) Rita Moreno: Just a Girl … Roadside Att… $25,186 -20%   227 $111 $81,995 3
- (-) The Croods: A New Age Universal $12,465 -44% -20% 850 $15 $58,544,525 208
- (-) Nobody Universal $5,230 -29% -23% 307 $17 $26,150,090 87

 

1 (1) Men in Black: International Sony Pictures $10,005,895 +5%   4,224 $2,369 $30,035,838 3
2 (2) The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal $8,054,600 -14% -39% 4,564 $1,765 $92,652,550 10
3 (3) Aladdin Walt Disney $5,930,153 -10% -25% 3,556 $1,668 $264,043,468 24
4 (5) Dark Phoenix 20th Century… $3,541,081 +3% -55% 3,721 $952 $52,117,218 10
5 (4) Rocketman Paramount Pi… $3,371,956 -9% -22% 3,021 $1,116 $66,763,166 17
6 (6) Godzilla: King of the Mon… Warner Bros. $3,323,139 +3% -33% 3,207 $1,036 $94,372,017 17
7 (7) Shaft Warner Bros. $3,214,408 +9%   2,952 $1,089 $8,901,419 3
8 (8) John Wick: Chapter 3 — Pa… Lionsgate $2,630,810 +13% +10% 2,033 $1,294 $148,928,130 31
9 (11) Avengers: Endgame Walt Disney $1,508,670 +9% -5% 1,450 $1,040 $830,700,214 52
10 (9) Late Night Amazon Studios $1,418,107 -26% +2,891% 2,220 $639 $5,568,462 10
11 (10) MA Universal $1,129,020 -23% -52% 1,794 $629 $40,458,970 17
12 (12) The Dead Don’t Die Focus Features $801,945 -1%   613 $1,308 $2,540,240 3
13 (13) Pokémon: Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. $421,606 -19% -60% 984 $428 $140,800,319 38
14 (14) Booksmart United Artists $270,049 -22% -45% 577 $468 $19,752,169 24
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24 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

This fathers day, none of the film, no matter how father friendly they are, managed to get Fathers Day bump, compared to those in 2019, 6 films got Sunday bump because of father day. This is another dismal sign of box office recovery. 

1 (1) The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyg… Lionsgate $4,106,333 -3%   3,331 $1,233 $16,747,160 5
2 (2) A Quiet Place: Part II Paramount Pi… $2,734,478 -23% -22% 3,515 $778 $124,945,917 24
3 (3) Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway Sony Pictures $1,859,748 -20% -24% 3,346 $556 $20,307,047 10
4 (4) Cruella Walt Disney $1,398,195 -27% -30% 3,110 $450 $64,461,030 24
- (-) Spirit Untamed Universal $427,500 -33% -42% 2,967 $144 $13,777,385 17
- (-) Wrath of Man United Artists $157,652 -13% -30% 707 $223 $26,818,013 45
- (-) Queen Bees Gravitas Ven… $78,610 -27% -34% 600 $131 $910,142 10
- (-) The Sparks Brothers Focus Features $76,655 -14%   534 $144 $273,530 3
- (-) Spiral Lionsgate $46,096 -32% -55% 887 $52 $22,990,369 38
- (-) Raya and the Last Dragon Walt Disney $29,025 -42% -48% 252 $115 $54,350,983 108
- (-) Dream Horse Bleecker Street $28,500 -23% -10% 147 $194 $2,757,242 31
- (-) Rita Moreno: Just a Girl … Roadside Att… $25,186 -20%   227 $111 $81,995 3
- (-) The Croods: A New Age Universal $12,465 -44% -20% 850 $15 $58,544,525 208
- (-) Nobody Universal $5,230 -29% -23% 307 $17 $26,150,090 87

 

1 (1) Men in Black: International Sony Pictures $10,005,895 +5%   4,224 $2,369 $30,035,838 3
2 (2) The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal $8,054,600 -14% -39% 4,564 $1,765 $92,652,550 10
3 (3) Aladdin Walt Disney $5,930,153 -10% -25% 3,556 $1,668 $264,043,468 24
4 (5) Dark Phoenix 20th Century… $3,541,081 +3% -55% 3,721 $952 $52,117,218 10
5 (4) Rocketman Paramount Pi… $3,371,956 -9% -22% 3,021 $1,116 $66,763,166 17
6 (6) Godzilla: King of the Mon… Warner Bros. $3,323,139 +3% -33% 3,207 $1,036 $94,372,017 17
7 (7) Shaft Warner Bros. $3,214,408 +9%   2,952 $1,089 $8,901,419 3
8 (8) John Wick: Chapter 3 — Pa… Lionsgate $2,630,810 +13% +10% 2,033 $1,294 $148,928,130 31
9 (11) Avengers: Endgame Walt Disney $1,508,670 +9% -5% 1,450 $1,040 $830,700,214 52
10 (9) Late Night Amazon Studios $1,418,107 -26% +2,891% 2,220 $639 $5,568,462 10
11 (10) MA Universal $1,129,020 -23% -52% 1,794 $629 $40,458,970 17
12 (12) The Dead Don’t Die Focus Features $801,945 -1%   613 $1,308 $2,540,240 3
13 (13) Pokémon: Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. $421,606 -19% -60% 984 $428 $140,800,319 38
14 (14) Booksmart United Artists $270,049 -22% -45% 577 $468 $19,752,169 24

The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard is rated R and A Quiet Place is a horror movie. Usually it's PG-13 action fare that sees the most notable bumps on Father's Day.

Edited by filmlover
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Shaft went +9% on its OW despite awful reception and R rating. It’s absolutely true that this Father’s Day underperformed relative to Sat — but the Sat was stronger than the last few Sats.    
 

Imo Sat had a little Juneteenth boost and that’s why even the strongest Father’s Day movies decreased from it slightly.

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58 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Shaft went +9% on its OW despite awful reception and R rating. It’s absolutely true that this Father’s Day underperformed relative to Sat — but the Sat was stronger than the last few Sats.    
 

Imo Sat had a little Juneteenth boost and that’s why even the strongest Father’s Day movies decreased from it slightly.

Actually Saturday bump was stronger in 2019 than in 2021. They were in 30%-40% range in 2019 but this year many of them got 20% bump. But since WB didn't release daily breakdown, we won't know how their movie did. 

1 (1) Men in Black: International Sony Pictures $9,525,079 -9%   4,224 $2,255 $20,029,943 2
2 (2) The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal $9,417,480 +36% -45% 4,564 $2,063 $84,597,950 9
3 (3) Aladdin Walt Disney $6,597,676 +38% -32% 3,556 $1,855 $258,113,315 23
4 (6) Rocketman Paramount Pi… $3,713,327 +59% -35% 3,021 $1,229 $63,391,210 16
5 (5) Dark Phoenix 20th Century… $3,428,158 +44% -68% 3,721 $921 $48,576,137 9
6 (7) Godzilla: King of the Mon… Warner Bros. $3,235,164 +45% -49% 3,207 $1,009 $91,048,878 16
7 (4) Shaft Warner Bros. $2,958,283 +8%   2,952 $1,002 $5,687,011 2
8 (9) John Wick: Chapter 3 — Pa… Lionsgate $2,331,389 +62% -25% 2,033 $1,147 $146,297,320 30
9 (8) Late Night Amazon Studios $1,929,001 +1% +1,679% 2,220 $869 $4,150,355 9
10 (10) MA Universal $1,471,200 +32% -54% 1,794 $820 $39,329,950 16
11 (12) Avengers: Endgame Walt Disney $1,385,165 +66% -32% 1,450 $955 $829,191,544 51

 

1 (1) The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyg… Lionsgate $4,220,290 +37%   3,331 $1,267 $12,640,827 4
2 (2) A Quiet Place: Part II Paramount Pi… $3,571,140 +28% -24% 3,401 $1,050 $122,211,439 23
3 (3) Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway Sony Pictures $2,325,335 +23% -37% 3,346 $695 $18,447,299 9
4 (5) Cruella Walt Disney $1,924,558 +28% -27% 3,110 $619 $63,062,835 23
- (7) Spirit Untamed Universal $639,400 +30% -35% 2,967 $216 $13,349,885 16
- (-) Wrath of Man United Artists $181,873 +57% -32% 707 $257 $26,660,361 44
- (-) Queen Bees Gravitas Ven… $107,454 +31% -21% 600 $179 $831,532 9
- (-) The Sparks Brothers Focus Features $89,650 -16%   534 $168 $196,875 2
- (-) Spiral Lionsgate $68,217 +27% -47% 887 $77 $22,944,273 37
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On 6/21/2021 at 10:06 AM, Lokis Legion said:

Please don’t make claims like this unless you actually know what you’re talking about. GvK had Father’s Day+Canada, not fudging. You can see a very similar drop from Demon Slayer this weekend, and even Cruella and AQP2 are in a pretty similar ballpark.

 

Where are you getting Demon Slayer numbers?

 

Thenumbers haven't had that movie for weeks in the charts.

 

Yeah, I forgot about Father's Day since it's not a big thing here. But it lost 48% of its theatres and dropped 17%, so it did seem like fudging - don't have to be so condescending about it. 

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Luca is also clearly the bigger loser. 

 

Were families going to unsub just because it didn't show on Disney+?

 

Going by T&J, Raya, the Croods - Luca could have at least made $50m which is $50m more than $0. 

 

Pixar employees were grumbling about it, and rightly so. And for those who claim "it's a pandemic", Raya and Cruella were released to the cinema and also on Premiere Access. For whatever reason, they threw Pixar under the bus twice. 

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