F9 WEEKEND THREAD | 70M Opening Weekend! Now 405M Worldwide | The Moovies are back! | One Month of Gold only $7.50

[DAJK]

22 true Friday would be awesome, not sure if I trust that number yet though

[Menor the Destroyer]

Deadline's before-weekend projections and internal multis are often wacky, but their midday updates have been reliable in the past (they've missed some, but so has the Tracking thread to be fair). Pretty sure they have a source with Comscore access so I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand, even though it seems quite optimistic and I'm not sure I believe it myself. 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Menor

[Blankments]

Luca is dropping 100% in theaters 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Blankments said:

Luca is dropping 100% in theaters 

+ ∞% 2nd week PTA

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Maybe I'm missing something here, and I'm aware H&S is a spin-off, but this seems a bit frontloaded, no? Sub-60 means a less than 8.45x, and I don't think this is a series that is that fan-driven.

 

If this does turn out true, then I have to admit that only doing around Quiet Place 2 numbers, or possibly less, is a bit disappointing and doesn't dissuade my fears for the health of the box office.

 

21 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Eh, I mean, I certainly agree that a lot of what explains a particular movie’s performance right now is product driven factors that don’t generalize to the next release.   
 

But it’s probably also true that some of what’s behind a certain debut (especially new records) is a reflection of broader market conditions/recovery, and so it should be weakly correlated with what you expect for future movies (especially if they are also likely to be the new record). I would certainly feel better about my club if this had broken out to like 77 than if it comes in at 54 say.

 

15 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Well aware of that. However, I want to see stronger numbers because that says to me there is a strong demand and that stronger numbers are around the corner for films that have more hype and more going for them.

 

I've said this before, but I am afraid that Memorial Day could have just been a fluke and that the summer (and maybe even beyond) will see muted openings. And while F9 will open better than Quiet Place 2, I feel that a number in the mid-60s, low-60s at the very least, would signal to me an appetite for moviegoing and suggest more confidence that Black Widow or Suicide Squad or Space Jam or whatever will see really strong results. Maybe the demand for this movie wasn't there and the market will be strong well into the end of the year. But at this point, I think seeing how other openers improve on themselves and their individual strengths say a lot more to me at this point in time.

 

Of course, I'm saying this as one of the more pessimistic members here in regards to the box office. I'm still convinced theaters are going to go through a lot of hassles and that numbers could be depressed from now on, and it'll take a lot to convince me otherwise.

 

I think you're both right, but IMO the broader issue is an uneven recovery at the box office.  Here in Sacramento, the box office looks pretty much recovered, at least for big films that are opening. Probably a tick or two under what it once was, but well within acceptable margins. F9 exploded in Philly, on its opening night and I seem to recall AQP II doing fairly well in walkups as well.

 

It could very well be that films are recovering in some areas but not others or for some theater chains more than others (more on this below).   I know I'm already starting to harp on it too much, but we are missing at least 15% of the screens that were up before the pandemic (I don't know if the stat that Deadline supplied included theaters that have permanently closed).  I don't care how much NYC and LA drive things, that has to be having an affect.

 

Broadly speaking I think AQP II did about 15% to 20% less than it could have done on preview night if I look strictly at my local numbers (using It 2 as a baseline).  If I look at F9, it did about 5% better than a pure AQP II comp would suggest (which suggests a trend in the right direction), but still about 20% less than if I look at H&S and Wick 3 locally alone (which suggests that if anything F9 over-performed here relative to the DOM market even more than AQP II did).

 

Now I know trying to drill down too deeply on only two data points in one local market is a fool's errand.  On the other hand, the data we've been getting from "MTC1" and "MTC2" suggests that they are getting a higher percentage of the box office than they used to.  If I read the data from Menor and keysersoze123 right that is.  Could just be that we have to see how well the smaller chains/independent theaters recover, if they even do.

 

(still some capping going on, let's not forget, especially in Canada)

 

Finally.... the recovery from the 'rona is also uneven.  Haven't thought about it too much/looked at the data but I do tend to wonder how the evenly spread out the economic recovery is across the DOM market.  

 

So, yeah.  Both right IMO.  I am slightly, and I do mean slightly, encouraged that F9 did about 5% better than a pure AQP II comp would have suggested.  But that's tempered by the fact that it still did about 20% worse than H&S/Wick 3 would have suggested.

 

Might just be two steps forward, one step back type of deal when it comes right down to it.

[druv10]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Somehow they get only 66.5 from a 22 million True Friday...Deadline math strikes again. This seems really positive but who knows lol. 

I was about to the say the same thing. With 22.4M+ Friday, we're looking at low 70s OW.

[Yandereprime101189]

Nice to see it doing well.

 

I was in hysterics for most of this entry. Loved it. Looking forward to see the family again in two years.

[Plain Old Tele]

I assume the internal multiplier is gonna be crappy. Thinking maybe mid-60s. 

[grey ghost]

I have an idea how to give this franchise a shot in the arm.

 

John Cena's character needs to collect 6 cars of several colors. If he succeeds half the population will disappear somehow.

 

Then Vin Diesel time travels to bring them back.

 

I dunno just a random idea I came up with.

Edited June 25, 2021 by grey ghost

[lorddemaxus]

I know what a good shot in the arm would be. Have scenes like this:

 

 

[Blankments]

2 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

+ ∞% 2nd week PTA

Don’t know if non-telegram members realize I flew out last weekend to Los Angeles to contribute to that 80k pta last week lol

[Eric Duncan]

Timothee wouldn't be a bad shot in the arm. Jus sayin 👀 

[AJG]

11 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I know what a good shot in the arm would be. Have scenes like this:

 

 

Now that looks like a good time. Hopefully it’s streaming somewhere.

[lorddemaxus]

10 minutes ago, AJG said:

Now that looks like a good time. Hopefully it’s streaming somewhere.

It's on US Amazon Prime. 

[CoolioD1]

24 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Timothee wouldn't be a bad shot in the arm. Jus sayin 👀 

he was already in the first one.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Maybe I'm missing something here, and I'm aware H&S is a spin-off, but this seems a bit frontloaded, no? Sub-60 means a less than 8.45x, and I don't think this is a series that is that fan-driven.

 

If this does turn out true, then I have to admit that only doing around Quiet Place 2 numbers, or possibly less, is a bit disappointing and doesn't dissuade my fears for the health of the box office.

Businesses has been more previews loaded in recent weeks. Even AQP2 was 26% during previews for OD. Kids films are going as high as low 20s. So I was thinking 30% from last few weeks.

 

Today i posted the above seeing pre-sales in morning, which suggested 17-18M, which co-incidentally is around 28-29%. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Oh Deadline is 29. 

 

I know I don't have my own numbers but is it first time deadline is over us.

 

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh Deadline is 29. 

 

I know I don't have my own numbers but is it first time deadline is over us.

 

 

No, they've often been above what we/Rth think is gonna happen.  Don't ask me the last time it happened though.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No, they've often been above what we/Rth think is gonna happen.  Don't ask me the last time it happened though.

Seems like a sad back story.

[Porthos]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Seems like a sad back story.

 

 

exists for a reason. 👍

 

(Deadline over-predicting based on limited information from the East Coast [or just plain using bad multis based off of preview numbers] has lead to numerous WE meltdowns back in the day when numbers came in that weren't so rosy after all)