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Eric Atreides

F9 WEEKEND THREAD | 70M Opening Weekend! Now 405M Worldwide | The Moovies are back! | One Month of Gold only $7.50

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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

exists for a reason. 👍

 

(Deadline over-predicting based on limited information from the East Coast [or just plain using bad multis based off of preview numbers] has lead to numerous WE meltdowns back in the day when numbers came in that weren't so rosy after all)

But recently they have been very conservative with their mid-day updates, so 29 must have some base to it.

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29 has no base to it.    
 

An infrequent secondhand comScore source which I shall say no more about was targeting 17.5-18.5 a half hour after that deadline update. From Menor it clearly didn’t explode since then. Anything north of 26M opening day should be viewed as very lucky from here.

Edited by Lokis Legion
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7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

But recently they have been very conservative with their mid-day updates, so 29 must have some base to it.

 

On the other hand, having a classic Deadline Early Estimate be overly optimistic would be the clearest sign yet that nature is healing. 

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LOL at that tweet.  Interesting info.

The "motor vehicles and parts" are both 25% above trend, yet still down from April, because you can't get them.  They legit can't build the new cars fast enough with the "chip shortage", which as caused the used car market to go bonkers.  

Glad restaurants are back.  But weird that theaters aren't, since they are safer than restaurants.  I feel like the messaging on theaters this whole year has been terrible.  But, eh, what can you do?

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5 minutes ago, Cap said:

Glad restaurants are back.  But weird that theaters aren't, since they are safer than restaurants.  I feel like the messaging on theaters this whole year has been terrible.  But, eh, what can you do?

Unlike other business say restaurants, theaters are derived demand business. Theaters will be back to normal when movies will back to pre-COVID scale. We can't expect a Fast film to do as much as say Toy Story 4, Jurassic World did. 

 

By November probably scale of movies will reach pre-COVID level.

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Just now, picores said:

 

Funny how H&S has the best legs of the bunch...

Summer vs Easter or MDW inflated openings for a lot of them.    
 

F9 also gets summer weekdays of course, legs should be at least 2.3 imo, probably better.

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53 minutes ago, picores said:

 

Funny how H&S has the best legs of the bunch...

 

46 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Summer vs Easter or MDW inflated openings for a lot of them.    
 

F9 also gets summer weekdays of course, legs should be at least 2.3 imo, probably better.

 

Lower opener also helps.  Easier to have legs if one only has to hit multiples of 60m (H&S) instead of 99m (F8).

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Anecdotal evidence being Anecdotal the 9 PM set at my theater sold 505 tickets  across 9 stadiums (5 of which were F9) That's probably our busiest single set since Endgame. And we are a 13 stadium theater that had 3 theaters playing F9 at the very end of the 7PM set as well as 1 theater with a late cruela in the 7PM set. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Cap said:

Glad restaurants are back.  But weird that theaters aren't, since they are safer than restaurants.  I feel like the messaging on theaters this whole year has been terrible.  But, eh, what can you do?

I think a not-insignificant part of that might come from people who don't follow box office and/or don't see more than a small handful of movies in theaters per year assuming that theatrical releases generate big crowds as a rule. Anecdotally, I've gotten many a raised eyebrow when I've told people that I've been going to the movies regularly since the theaters reopened locally in February, but I always clarify that I've only rarely seen a crowd go above 20% capacity in that time, even with the cap raised from the initial 25% to 50. (I was also vaccinated relatively early, thanks to my profession.) Even pre-pandemic, it was pretty easy to walk up and get a ticket for anything that wasn't a huge blockbuster; but for average moviegoers who don't follow box office numbers and only see a handful of movies theatrically each year - most of which are probably big blockbusters in their first few weeks of release - a big crowd might feel like the default for a theatrical setting.

 

For what it's worth, though, my comment about the low capacity only applies to movies I've seen in regular theaters. The pub cinema I go to, on the other hand, has been at or near the varying COVID capacity almost every single time I've gone. So I guess people are more down for going to the movies if it also involves eating and drinking a whole lot more actively than in a regular theater? Like you said: weird.

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