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Weekend Thread: Boss Baby & Purge 1.3M Previews

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41 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Weak Saturday bump across board

Expected. Check out the last time we had this calendar:

1 (1) The Twilight Saga: Eclipse Summit Enter… $23,420,629 -17%   4,468 $5,242 $144,318,923 4
2 (2) The Last Airbender Paramount Pi… $14,388,363 -13%   3,169 $4,540 $48,513,572 3
3 (3) Toy Story 3 Walt Disney $11,433,451 +9% -49% 4,028 $2,838 $280,796,714 16
4 (4) Grown Ups Sony Pictures $7,055,905 +3% -52% 3,534 $1,997 $72,503,692 9
5 (5) Knight and Day 20th Century… $3,962,818 +18% -51% 3,104 $1,277 $42,632,044 11
6 (6) The Karate Kid Sony Pictures $3,087,227 +15% -50% 3,109 $993 $149,298,392 23
7 (7) The A-Team 20th Century… $1,197,509 +10% -51% 2,153 $556 $68,377,410 23
8 (8) Get Him to the Greek Universal $464,085 +6% -61% 884 $525 $57,143,260 30
9 (10) Shrek Forever After Paramount Pi… $328,505 +12% -74% 957 $343 $232,009,634 44
10 (12) Cyrus Fox Searchlight $313,120 +33% +162% 77 $4,066 $1,267,240 16
11 (9) Letters to Juliet Summit Enter… $307,561 -13% +89% 340 $905 $50,782,595 51
12 (11) Prince of Persia: Sands o… Walt Disney $266,681 +7% -77% 600 $444 $87,968,994 37
13 (13) Iron Man 2 Paramount Pi… $243,163 +13% -59% 522 $466 $308,112,705 58
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On 7/3/2021 at 9:43 PM, titanic2187 said:

domestic will be still a biggest contributor

Domestic was  biggest contributor for F8 itself.

On 7/3/2021 at 9:43 PM, titanic2187 said:

  Shouldn't Vin diesel make a video thanking American like how he did to Chinese?

China gross give bragging right about over-all gross. A $40M in AUS is as profitable as $150-200m in China.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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2 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

Expected. Check out the last time we had this calendar:

1 (1) The Twilight Saga: Eclipse Summit Enter… $23,420,629 -17%   4,468 $5,242 $144,318,923 4
2 (2) The Last Airbender Paramount Pi… $14,388,363 -13%   3,169 $4,540 $48,513,572 3
3 (3) Toy Story 3 Walt Disney $11,433,451 +9% -49% 4,028 $2,838 $280,796,714 16
4 (4) Grown Ups Sony Pictures $7,055,905 +3% -52% 3,534 $1,997 $72,503,692 9
5 (5) Knight and Day 20th Century… $3,962,818 +18% -51% 3,104 $1,277 $42,632,044 11
6 (6) The Karate Kid Sony Pictures $3,087,227 +15% -50% 3,109 $993 $149,298,392 23
7 (7) The A-Team 20th Century… $1,197,509 +10% -51% 2,153 $556 $68,377,410 23
8 (8) Get Him to the Greek Universal $464,085 +6% -61% 884 $525 $57,143,260 30
9 (10) Shrek Forever After Paramount Pi… $328,505 +12% -74% 957 $343 $232,009,634 44
10 (12) Cyrus Fox Searchlight $313,120 +33% +162% 77 $4,066 $1,267,240 16
11 (9) Letters to Juliet Summit Enter… $307,561 -13% +89% 340 $905 $50,782,595 51
12 (11) Prince of Persia: Sands o… Walt Disney $266,681 +7% -77% 600 $444 $87,968,994 37
13 (13) Iron Man 2 Paramount Pi… $243,163 +13% -59% 522 $466 $308,112,705 58

I always hate ID fall on weekend, they hurt box office hard.

 

By the way, Happy Independence Day to all American here. 

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Black Widow is really gonna kill all my hopes for totals for other movies. 50M for The Purge, 170M for F9, 160M for AQP2, 70M for The Conjuring... everything will fall short.

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Didn't expect Boss Baby2 to hit this high and close to Cruella. With decent, this could still within half of the first movie. Still a better holdup than SLOP2. 

 

AQP2 continues to run close like The Meg, only with AQP2' midweek numbers are significantly better. Should be able to try 155m.

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28 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Didn't expect Boss Baby2 to hit this high and close to Cruella. With decent, this could still within half of the first movie. Still a better holdup than SLOP2. 

 

AQP2 continues to run close like The Meg, only with AQP2' midweek numbers are significantly better. Should be able to try 155m.

AQP2 is nothing like Meg so far. 

 

Meg had not a single week under 40% drop in first 5 weeks except one holiday week while AQP2 has not single drop over 35% except 2nd obvious week.

 

AQP2

Spoiler

 

May 28-Jun 3 1 $69,110,985 - 3,726 - $18,548 $69,110,985 1
Jun 4-10 2 $28,229,230 -59.2% 3,744 +18 $7,539 $97,340,215 2
Jun 11-17 1 $18,518,963 -34.4% 3,515 -229 $5,268 $115,859,178 3
Jun 18-24 2 $14,329,188 -22.6% 3,401 -114 $4,213 $130,188,366 4
Jun 25-Jul 1 2 $10,023,293 -30% 3,124 -277 $3,208 $140,211,659

5

 

 

The Meg

Spoiler

 

Aug 10-16 1 $62,609,062 - 4,118 - $15,203 $62,609,062 1
Aug 17-23 2 $29,661,584 -52.6% 4,118 - $7,202 $92,270,646 2
Aug 24-30 2 $17,715,770 -40.3% 4,031 -87 $4,394 $109,986,416 3
Aug 31-Sep 6 2 $15,556,358 -12.2% 3,761 -270 $4,136 $125,542,774 4
Sep 7-13 4 $7,739,416 -50.2% 3,511 -250 $2,204 $133,282,190 5
Sep 14-20 7 $4,890,729 -36.8% 2,851 -660 $1,715 $138,172,919 6
Sep 21-27 11 $2,775,186 -43.3% 2,003 -848 $1,385 $140,948,105 7
Sep 28-Oct 4 14 $1,277,678 -54% 1,243 -760 $1,027 $142,225,783 8
Oct 5-11 26 $372,581 -70.8% 533 -710 $699 $142,598,364 9
Oct 12-18 36 $102,427 -72.5% 202 -331 $507 $142,700,791 10

 

 

The best comp to AQP2 is Aladdin. 

Spoiler
May 24-30 1 $142,697,174 - 4,476 - $31,880 $142,697,174 1
May 31-Jun 6 1 $65,188,752 -54.3% 4,476 - $14,564 $207,885,926 2
Jun 7-13 3 $38,848,388 -40.4% 3,805 -671 $10,209 $246,734,314 3
Jun 14-20 3 $28,575,814 -26.4% 3,556 -249 $8,035 $275,310,128 4
Jun 21-27 2 $21,207,818 -25.8% 3,435 -121 $6,174 $296,517,946 5
Jun 28-Jul 4 5 $16,671,670 -21.4% 3,235 -200 $5,153 $313,189,616 6
Jul 5-11 5 $12,427,104 -25.5% 2,758 -477 $4,505 $325,616,720 7
Jul 12-18 6 $10,623,994 -14.5% 2,557 -201 $4,154 $336,240,714 8
Jul 19-25 6 $6,899,872 -35.1% 2,105 -452 $3,277 $343,140,586 9
Jul 26-Aug 1 6 $5,211,006 -24.5% 1,798 -307 $2,898 $348,351,592 10

Besides AQP2 will be $151M approx by next Sunday, there is no way it miss $160M at this point, with most likely result being $165-170M. 

 

AQP2 Projection

Spoiler

Till Week 5 - 140.2

Week 6 - 7.8 / 148 (-22%)

Week 7 - 4.5 / 152.5 (-42%)

Week 8 - 4 / 156.5 (-12%)

Week 9 - 3 / 159.5 (-25%)

Week 10 - 2.1 / 161.6M (-30%)

 

After Week 10 - 3-7M

 

+ Ontario reopening boost

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Since I am doing this, Cruella Proj

Spoiler

Till Week 5 - 74

Week 6 - 5 / 79 (-22%)

Week 7 - 3.5 / 82.5 (-30%)

Week 8 - 2.8 / 85.3 (-20%)

Week 9 - 2.2 / 87.5 (-22%)

Week 10 - 1.6 / 88.1 (-28%)

 

After 10 - 4-5

 

Total - 92-93

+ Ontario reopening boost

 

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44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

AQP2 is nothing like Meg so far. 

 

Meg had not a single week under 40% drop in first 5 weeks except one holiday week while AQP2 has not single drop over 35% except 2nd obvious week.

 

AQP2

  Hide contents

 

May 28-Jun 3 1 $69,110,985 - 3,726 - $18,548 $69,110,985 1
Jun 4-10 2 $28,229,230 -59.2% 3,744 +18 $7,539 $97,340,215 2
Jun 11-17 1 $18,518,963 -34.4% 3,515 -229 $5,268 $115,859,178 3
Jun 18-24 2 $14,329,188 -22.6% 3,401 -114 $4,213 $130,188,366 4
Jun 25-Jul 1 2 $10,023,293 -30% 3,124 -277 $3,208 $140,211,659

5

 

 

The Meg

  Hide contents

 

Aug 10-16 1 $62,609,062 - 4,118 - $15,203 $62,609,062 1
Aug 17-23 2 $29,661,584 -52.6% 4,118 - $7,202 $92,270,646 2
Aug 24-30 2 $17,715,770 -40.3% 4,031 -87 $4,394 $109,986,416 3
Aug 31-Sep 6 2 $15,556,358 -12.2% 3,761 -270 $4,136 $125,542,774 4
Sep 7-13 4 $7,739,416 -50.2% 3,511 -250 $2,204 $133,282,190 5
Sep 14-20 7 $4,890,729 -36.8% 2,851 -660 $1,715 $138,172,919 6
Sep 21-27 11 $2,775,186 -43.3% 2,003 -848 $1,385 $140,948,105 7
Sep 28-Oct 4 14 $1,277,678 -54% 1,243 -760 $1,027 $142,225,783 8
Oct 5-11 26 $372,581 -70.8% 533 -710 $699 $142,598,364 9
Oct 12-18 36 $102,427 -72.5% 202 -331 $507 $142,700,791 10

 

 

The best comp to AQP2 is Aladdin. 

  Reveal hidden contents

Besides AQP2 will be $151M approx by next Sunday, there is no way it miss $160M at this point, with most likely result being $165-170M. 

 

AQP2 Projection

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Wrong you are.

 

The Meg weekend number largely align with AQP2 up until now, In fact, Meg's 2nd to 4th weekend came above AQP2 despite lower opening.

 

AQP2 is 1.047x higher than Meg during opening weekend and up until now, AQP2 is racing 1.053x ahead of Meg largely thanks to stronger mid-week since the Meg was no longer in summer after 4th weekend. Also, AQP2 already showing deviation from Aladdin in the memorial weekend itself, not sure how you can think they align and if they do align, AQP2 should be doing 159m thus far. 

 

 

The Meg

Aug 10-12 1 $45,402,195 - 4,118 - $11,025 $45,402,195 1
Aug 17-19 2 $21,151,012 -53.4% 4,118 - $5,136 $83,760,074 2
Aug 24-26 2 $12,812,615 -39.4% 4,031 -87 $3,178 $105,083,261 3
Aug 31-Sep 2 2 $10,535,459 -17.8% 3,761 -270 $2,801 $120,521,875 4
Aug 31-Sep 3
Labor Day wknd
2 $13,816,467 - 3,761 - $3,673 $123,802,883 -
Sep 7-9 4 $6,094,327 -42.2% 3,511 -250 $1,735 $131,637,101 5
Sep 14-16 7 $3,862,851 -36.6% 2,851 -660 $1,354 $137,145,041 6

 

AQP2

May 28, 2021 1 $47,547,231   3,726 $12,761   $47,547,231 1
Jun 4, 2021 2 $19,266,977 -59% 3,744 $5,146   $88,377,962 2
Jun 11, 2021 1 $12,033,126 -38% 3,515 $3,423   $109,373,341 3
Jun 18, 2021 2 $9,086,739 -24% 3,401 $2,672   $124,945,917 4
Jun 25, 2021 2 $6,193,494 -32% 3,124 $1,983   $136,381,860 5
Jul 2, 2021 4 $4,225,000 -32% 2,826 $1,495   $144,436,659 6
Edited by Borobudur
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40 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

 

Shouldn't you have already finish get over when you projected this for F9 opening? 

yeah projecting something before release and something 6 weeks after are same.

 

Ayways, its not about projecting, it's about seeing two film's trending, while one has a excellent trending while other is usual trending, and thinking both are same. 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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11 hours ago, CJohn said:

Black Widow is really gonna kill all my hopes for totals for other movies. 50M for The Purge, 170M for F9, 160M for AQP2, 70M for The Conjuring... everything will fall short.

Seems you’ve moved the goal posts just beyond what they’re going to finish with lol. 
 

None of those films are disappointments in this market. 

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10 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Wrong you are.

 

The Meg weekend number largely align with AQP2 up until now, In fact, Meg's 2nd to 4th weekend came above AQP2 despite lower opening.

 

AQP2 is 1.047x higher than Meg during opening weekend and up until now, AQP2 is racing 1.053x ahead of Meg largely thanks to stronger mid-week since the Meg was no longer in summer after 4th weekend. Also, AQP2 already showing deviation from Aladdin in the memorial weekend itself, not sure how you can think they align and if they do align, AQP2 should be doing 159m thus far. 

 

 

The Meg

Aug 10-12 1 $45,402,195 - 4,118 - $11,025 $45,402,195 1
Aug 17-19 2 $21,151,012 -53.4% 4,118 - $5,136 $83,760,074 2
Aug 24-26 2 $12,812,615 -39.4% 4,031 -87 $3,178 $105,083,261 3
Aug 31-Sep 2 2 $10,535,459 -17.8% 3,761 -270 $2,801 $120,521,875 4
Aug 31-Sep 3
Labor Day wknd
2 $13,816,467 - 3,761 - $3,673 $123,802,883 -
Sep 7-9 4 $6,094,327 -42.2% 3,511 -250 $1,735 $131,637,101 5
Sep 14-16 7 $3,862,851 -36.6% 2,851 -660 $1,354 $137,145,041 6

 

AQP2

May 28, 2021 1 $47,547,231   3,726 $12,761   $47,547,231 1
Jun 4, 2021 2 $19,266,977 -59% 3,744 $5,146   $88,377,962 2
Jun 11, 2021 1 $12,033,126 -38% 3,515 $3,423   $109,373,341 3
Jun 18, 2021 2 $9,086,739 -24% 3,401 $2,672   $124,945,917 4
Jun 25, 2021 2 $6,193,494 -32% 3,124 $1,983   $136,381,860 5
Jul 2, 2021 4 $4,225,000 -32% 2,826 $1,495   $144,436,659 6

I do agree AQP2's run is following closely Meg's run but they start showing difference after 5th weekend. Just like last mid-week, AQP2 made almost 4m but the Meg only made 1.7m. AQP2 weekdays are too strong for 155m finish line, more like 160m, especially with Ontorio's reopening is still on the way. 

 

Also, GvK did 4.3m in its 4th week to 86.66m. It went on to make another 14m+ to a likely finish line of 101m. That is without summer weekdays. So this is not so unrealistic to assume AQP2 can follow GvK from here to 160m. 

 

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https://deadline.com/2021/07/boss-baby-family-business-forever-purge-f9-box-office-weekend-july-4th-1234785567/

 

Quote
  1. F9 (Uni) 4,203 theaters (+24), Fri $8.26M/Sat $9.39M/Sun $5.18M/Mon $7.26M/3-day $22.86M (-67%)/4-day: $30.12M/Total: $123.2M/ Wk 2
  2. Boss Baby: Family Business (Uni) 3,644  theaters, Fri $7.88M/Sat $5.5M/Sun $2.66M/Mon $4M/3-day $16.04M/4-day and total $20.3M/Wk 1
  3. Forever Purge (Uni) 3,051 theaters , Fri $5.7M/Sat $4.1M/Sun $2.5M/Mon $3.1M/3-day $12.48M /4-day and total $15.66M/Wk 1
  4. A Quiet Place Part II (Par) 2,826 (-298) Fri $1.485M/Sat $1.67M/ Sun $915K/Mon $1.145M/3-day: $4.07M (-34%)/4-day: $5.22M/Total: $145.4M/Wk 6
  5. Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard (LG) 2,582 (-779) theaters Fri $980K/Sat $1.23M/Sun $786K/Mon $900K/3-day $3M (-38%)/4-day $3.9M/Total $32.2M/Wk 3
  6. Cruella (Dis) 2,380 (-440) theaters Fri $865K (-23%)/Sat $975K/Sun $716K/3-day $2.55M (-32%)/4-day $3.2M/Total $77.2M/Wk 6
  7. Peter Rabbit 2 (Sony) 2,954 (-377) theaters Fri $860K/Sat $800K/ Sun $590K/ Mon $800K/3-day $2.25M (-53%)/4-day $3.05M/Total: $35.2M/Wk 4
  8. Conjuring 3 (NL) 1,716 (-952) theaters Fri $480K/Sat $505K/Sun $275K/Mon $280K/3-day $1.26M (-58%)/4-day $1.54M/Total $62.4M/Wk 5
  9. Zola (A24) 1,468 theaters, Fri $445K/Sat $460K/Sun $325K/Mon $422,5K/3-day $1.23M/4-day: $1.65M/5-day: $2M /6-day: $2.4M Wk 1
  10. In the Heights (WB) 1,405 (-998) theaters Fri $400K/Sat $500K/Sun $285K/Mon $350k/ 3-day: $1.185M (-47%), 4-day: $1.535M/Total: $27.1M/Wk 4

 

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