BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Fullbuster]

5 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

i think people here are just in a bit of a shock that PA has worked so well

 

Truth!

[cax16]

12 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

from you specifically they of course will be making less, but that market was rather niche in the grand scheme of things. in the aggregate with how many subs they have, they will make far more than the previous paradigm

For sure, you’re 100% right. 

[Blankments]

LIES

[Cooper Legion]

I do wonder if SC will go to PA tbh, but that’s more to do with delta and rather woeful vaccine distribution globally than with the results of this weekend.

[RockyMountain]

Some people may be shocked how well PA is doing but when you think about it it makes complete sense as it is actually cheaper for a family to pay 30 bucks and watch it at home then it is to go to the theaters. I wouldn't be surprised at all if PA starts outpacing theater sales in the coming years once people start becoming more accustomed to watching brand new movies at home.

Edited July 11, 2021 by RockyMountain

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Some people may be shocked how well PA is doing but when you think about it it makes complete sense as it is actually cheaper for a family to pay 30 bucks and watch it at home then it is to go to the theaters. I wouldn't be surprised at all if PA starts outpacing theater sales in the coming years once people start becoming more accustomed to watching brand new movies at home.

Watching movies at home is for losers tho

[RockyMountain]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Watching movies at home is for losers tho

 

They used to say the same thing about watching football at home too, lol.

[grey ghost]

Disney is going to look dumb if Shang Chi disappoints with ~50 m OW and no PA revenue. 

 

Versus making 40m OW and 30m from PA.

 

That's a much bigger profit margin not even including new subscribers.

[TwoMisfits]

Before we declare $100M PA good (which I'm being generous, I think, but let's say that's the type of multiplier you get)...

 

In the US, under old domestic revenue rules, theaters gave away 60-65% of all DOM Marvel movie revenue (with the latter being the phase 3 going rate).

 

Since we assume 98% of the PA buys are US folks, we'll use the same theater revenue split...

 

To make $100M at the DOM box office, you need to sell about $154M in tickets.  If you do that, you match that $100M in box office revenue.

 

In a world without global box office, if you expected Black Widow to make $350M DOM, if you want the same revenue on the domestic side, you need to now make $196M DOM.  That seems possible with this open.

 

But, then, as Charlie mentioned, you're missing the huge worldwide pirating effect.  But, c'mon, we already know all movies get pirated...and that's true.  But Disney has now made it acceptable to pirate on the "nice" scale without having to get on the dark web for a copy.  Just hop on any worldwide movie board and ask someone if they bought it and wouldn't mind streaming it on Discord.  You'll probably get a "no problem."

 

So, even if you match the DOM revenue $ for $...blockbusters and their enormous production and marketing budgets work b/c they make 60-70% of their box office overseas...DOM can't make up for that on its own...

 

PS - For the number of uber-Marvel fans and uber-Disney fans (since I chat with those folks on the regular), only 2M is kinda horrible.  I mean, there's a certain number of Disney fans that buy ANYTHING they do no matter the price...2M isn't that huge a number over the number of likely absolute fans...but, now we know how pricing affects buyers.  It is a high enough price and hurdle to keep more than 98% of the current Disney Plus subscribers from buying (since there's about 109M of them or so?)...

Edited July 11, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

PA could be a get together for multiple families. Then $30 wont be that big of a deal. For those who have bought PA, is there a limit on how many times you can see the movie. What will disney do if people start to share accounts. 

 

I would reiterate there is nothing disappointing about the domestic gross at all. Except to those who thought 100m was possible AFTER seeing the previews. if it ends up missing 80m then that is a huge delta. Otherwise its a huge win for Disney and theater chains wont be happy at all. 

[Marcos12]

Let's be honest, really meh numbers, especially those OS numbers,

[Saul Goodman]

 

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

PA could be a get together for multiple families. Then $30 wont be that big of a deal. For those who have bought PA, is there a limit on how many times you can see the movie. What will disney do if people start to share accounts. 

 

I would reiterate there is nothing disappointing about the domestic gross at all. Except to those who thought 100m was possible AFTER seeing the previews. if it ends up missing 80m then that is a huge delta. Otherwise its a huge win for Disney and theater chains wont be happy at all. 

 

Nope, you can watch it as many times as you want.  Thus, why Black Widow staying high in views won't mean much, b/c it will likely be subscribers watching it over and over again with different friend and family groups (or their kids watching it every day - that happens for the kid movies a lot)...and some subcribers share their info with family, so then it will be those other families watching it with their friends and families...rinse and repeat...

 

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[grey ghost]

Also it's a big assumption that a family of five would go to the theaters if they didn't have PA as an option.

 

Just using my family as an example, only the parents are vaccinated and out of those two parents only one of us is a Marvel loonie. So really without PA only I would venture out to the theater giving Disney a parsley 10 bucks (5 bucks profit) instead of 30 bucks profit.

[AndyLL]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Don't worry, PA will end with Jungle Cruise anyway, it was an experience for the future in order to see the reactions from consumers, they got all the data they needed for a long term strategy.

Yeah... but the data they got was that families are not yet comfortable going back to the theater.  The poor multiplier shows that.

 

I think they will re-consider.

 

 

 

 

[AndyLL]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

Some of the last 10 pages has me confused..... going into the weekend it was a 80/60 = 140m WW expected weekend by the industry. 

Movie meets or passes both marks.

Movie makes an additional 60m via PA (and those of us who would never have bought a ticket are thankful to have contributed in some way.)

But its a failure by most of the people around here? 

Can definitely see that the board is coming out of hibernation..... 🤔🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤣

 

BOT is obviously back to pre-pandemic levels... 

[imbruglia]

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, imbruglia said:

 

 

Which would be great if Black Widow didn't have a production budget 4x+ higher ($200M)...(forget the marketing spend b/c this poor movie had to double market, so that wouldn't be fair to hold against it)...

 

Disney would like many more $48M revenue weekends for this movie...but they may not get them...

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

WOW at 60m PA. That is equivalent to 120m+ in BO. 

People should really stop including those numbers with the boxoffice lol.

[jimisawesome]

45 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Before we declare $100M PA good (which I'm being generous, I think, but let's say that's the type of multiplier you get)...

 

In the US, under old domestic revenue rules, theaters gave away 60-65% of all DOM Marvel movie revenue (with the latter being the phase 3 going rate).

 

Since we assume 98% of the PA buys are US folks, we'll use the same theater revenue split...

 

To make $100M at the DOM box office, you need to sell about $154M in tickets.  If you do that, you match that $100M in box office revenue.

 

In a world without global box office, if you expected Black Widow to make $350M DOM, if you want the same revenue on the domestic side, you need to now make $196M DOM.  That seems possible with this open.

 

But, then, as Charlie mentioned, you're missing the huge worldwide pirating effect.  But, c'mon, we already know all movies get pirated...and that's true.  But Disney has now made it acceptable to pirate on the "nice" scale without having to get on the dark web for a copy.  Just hop on any worldwide movie board and ask someone if they bought it and wouldn't mind streaming it on Discord.  You'll probably get a "no problem."

 

So, even if you match the DOM revenue $ for $...blockbusters and their enormous production and marketing budgets work b/c they make 60-70% of their box office overseas...DOM can't make up for that on its own...

 

PS - For the number of uber-Marvel fans and uber-Disney fans (since I chat with those folks on the regular), only 2M is kinda horrible.  I mean, there's a certain number of Disney fans that buy ANYTHING they do no matter the price...2M isn't that huge a number over the number of likely absolute fans...but, now we know how pricing affects buyers.  It is a high enough price and hurdle to keep more than 98% of the current Disney Plus subscribers from buying (since there's about 109M of them or so?)...

 

If I only had a Thumbs up to give.  What I wonder is how many of the people that went PA are people that would have went to see the movie and then would have bought the movie the first day it hit its home video window.  So basically Disney is giving up on all the theater revenue and just able to realize the revenue from PA a few months earlier.