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BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

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4 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I half enjoyed Tomorrow War, but felt like the sequel happened in the same movie! 
Pratt really doesn’t need to say yes to another, but maybe he’s contractually obliged. 

Widow’s apparent $40 million plus Friday is encouraging. Who would have thought pre-pandemic that it would be even possible for a film to open that big when people could pay to watch it at home on opening day. 

Cinema is over they told us! 
 

All we need now are some delightful leaked numbers on how mediocre the Disney+ figures are. Where’s Samba at? 

Samba means nothing, they track only US TV's and only a portion of them, so they're useless in giving real numbers.

 

All the numbers they provide for all movies are underestimate because of that.

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40 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

All we need now are some delightful leaked numbers on how mediocre the Disney+ figures are. Where’s Samba at? 

Samba doesn’t leak numbers they use a sample of people through a smart TV app and project a possible number of households across the population of the US.
 

I personally don’t think they are very accurate just looking at some of their past data. 

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13 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Samba doesn’t leak numbers they use a sample of people through a smart TV app and project a possible number of households across the population of the US.
 

I personally don’t think they are very accurate just looking at some of their past data. 


Netflix suggested that Nielsen is accurate.
 

Samba numbers always seem super low for everything. I think Deadline like to parade them in order to hype up the “benefits” of theatrical distribution. 

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2 minutes ago, AJG said:


Netflix suggested that Nielsen is accurate.
 

Samba numbers always seem super low for everything. I think Deadline like to parade them in order to hype up the “benefits” of theatrical distribution. 

Yeah, Deadline was VERY angry about Black Widow being at D+ on their past few articles.

 

I mean i get it the disappointment, but it's stupid at this point to try make everything looking like a failure when it's not.

 

Just a few hours ago on their article they are talking about how D+ can prejudice BW legs even when Disney already put out 2 movies on the same strategy and both have great legs. They really want to make it look bad, which doesn't make sense since there's only Jungle Cruise left to get out day and on date.

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3 hours ago, Menor said:

I think 470k at MTC1 and 380k at MTC2 is quite possible. F9 had 355k and 300k so that translates into about 29.5 million. 

Probably not that high. At 530PM PST MTC1 at 408.5K(4.62m gross) and MTC2 at 318.5k(3.42m gross). Gross wise its flat from F9 finish at MTC2 while MTC1 is already 10% higher than F9 finish. I would stick with 28m friday. 

 

Edit: put F9 MTC1 OD as BW MTC2 number. Updated :-)

Edited by keysersoze123
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So I've been doing some math, looking at the True Friday:Thursday ratio and what that can tell us about the OW.  I did something like this with Endgame using early Friday numbers and got a 357M opening weekend, which was right on the money.  Back then, I looked at the Thursday preview numbers for every movie had a 150+ OW, took the ratio to true Friday, and plotted the correlation with the Internal Multiplier (ratio of previews to OW).  Turns out there's a strong correlation.  I decided to expand this to almost all movies that opened over 100M, and got a R-squared value of over .95 (quite strong). 

jVJ7ARb.png

Anyway, I plugged the early BW numbers in.  A 40M total Friday (26.8M true Friday)- would suggest a 93.8M opening weekend.  A 42M Friday would suggest 99.4M, so that's my target to have a good shot at 100M.  Of course, there's still a lot of room for variance here, what with the pandemic and Disney+, but the fact that this performed so well for Endgame (which was an unprecedented weekend) and that the data point is in a very well populated part of the graph has me optimistic.

 

In the spoiler is the raw data.  4 movies were excluded- Indiana Jones 4, Shrek 2, and Revenge of the Sith because they had non-standard release days.  Shrek 3 because it didn't have a wide Thursday midnight release.

Spoiler
  Thursday True Friday OW Friday/Thursday IM
Transformers Age of Extinction 8.8 33.1 100 3.7614 11.3636
Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 16 29.6 102.7 1.8500 6.4188
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 6.3 33.8 102.7 5.3651 16.3016
X-Men: The Last Stand 5.9 39.2 102.8 6.6441 17.4237
Wonder Woman 11 27.2 103.3 2.4727 9.3909
The Jungle Book 4.2 27.8 103.3 6.6190 24.5952
Secret Life of Pets 5.3 33.2 104.4 6.2642 19.6981
Toy Story 3 4 37.1 110.3 9.2750 27.5750
Pirates of the Caribbean At World's End 13.2 42.9 114.7 3.2500 8.6894
Spider-Man 7 32.4 114.8 4.6286 16.4000
Minions 6.2 39.8 115.7 6.4194 18.6613
Alice in Wonderland 4 36.8 116.1 9.2000 29.0250
Man of Steel 21.1 35 128.7 1.6588 6.0995
Spider Man Homecoming 15.4 35.4 117 2.2987 7.5974
Toy Story 4 12 35.4 120.9 2.9500 10.0750
Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 19.7 35.4 121.9 1.7970 6.1878
Thor Ragnarok 14.5 32 122.7 2.2069 8.4621
It 10.5 39.9 123.4 3.8000 11.7524
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 24 37.7 125 1.5708 5.2083
Deadpool 2 18.6 34.4 125.5 1.8495 6.7473
Frozen 2 8.5 33.7 130.3 3.9647 15.3294
Deadpool 12.7 34.6 132.4 2.7244 10.4252
Suicide Squad 20.5 44.4 133.7 2.1659 6.5220
Finding Dory 9.2 45.5 135.1 4.9457 14.6848
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 13 42.8 135.6 3.2923 10.4308
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1 30.3 41.3 138.1 1.3630 4.5578
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 30.4 40.8 141.1 1.3421 4.6414
The Twilight Saga: New Moon 22.2 50.5 142.8 2.2748 6.4324
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 17 39.1 146.5 2.3000 8.6176
Furious 7 7.1 60.3 147.2 8.4930 20.7324
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 15.3 43.3 148 2.8301 9.6732
Spider-Man 3 10 49.8 151.1 4.9800 15.1100
The Hunger Games 19.7 47.6 152.5 2.4162 7.7411
Captain Marvel 20.7 41 153.4 1.9807 7.4106
Rogue One 29 42.1 155.1 1.4517 5.3483
Hunger Games: Catching Fire 25.3 45.7 158.1 1.8063 6.2490
The Dark Knight 18.5 48.7 158.4 2.6324 8.5622
The Dark Knight Rises 30.6 45.3 160.9 1.4804 5.2582
Batman v Superman 27.7 53.9 166 1.9458 5.9928
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 43.5 47.6 169.2 1.0943 3.8897
Iron Man 3 13.6 55.3 174.1 4.0662 12.8015
Beauty and the Beast 16.3 47.5 174.8 2.9141 10.7239
Star Wars the Rise of Skywalker 40 49.6 177.4 1.2400 4.4350
Captain America Civil War 25 50.5 179.1 2.0200 7.1640
Incredibles 2 18.5 52.8 182.7 2.8541 9.8757
Avengers Age of Ultron 27.6 56.8 191.3 2.0580 6.9312
The Lion King 23 54.9 191.8 2.3870 8.3391
Black Panther 25.2 50.7 202 2.0119 8.0159
The Avengers 18.7 62.1 207.4 3.3209 11.0909
Jurassic World 18.5 63.5 208.8 3.4324 11.2865
Star Wars the Last Jedi 45 59.7 220 1.3267 4.8889
Star Wars the Force Awakens 57 62.1 248 1.0895 4.3509
Avengers Infinity War 39 67.3 257.7 1.7256 6.6077
Avengers Endgame 60 97.5 357.1 1.6250 5.9517

 

Edited by IceFire9yt
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1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

 

All we need now are some delightful leaked numbers on how mediocre the Disney+ figures are. Where’s Samba at? 

 

Careful about what you wish, if it's higher than Raya and Cruella by a sizable margin it'll be seen by Disney as the proof that Premiera Access success depends on the type of movies and IPs....and it's very likely BW will bring more than these!

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34 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Samba doesn’t leak numbers they use a sample of people through a smart TV app and project a possible number of households across the population of the US.
 

I personally don’t think they are very accurate just looking at some of their past data. 

I was just kidding bringing them up. Lol. 
More that I was highlighting that the media use them like they’re the be all and end all as they don’t know the real numbers. 

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23 minutes ago, AJG said:


Netflix suggested that Nielsen is accurate.
 

Samba numbers always seem super low for everything. I think Deadline like to parade them in order to hype up the “benefits” of theatrical distribution. 

 

14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah, Deadline was VERY angry about Black Widow being at D+ on their past few articles.

 

I mean i get it the disappointment, but it's stupid at this point to try make everything looking like a failure when it's not.

 

Just a few hours ago on their article they are talking about how D+ can prejudice BW legs even when Disney already put out 2 movies on the same strategy and both have great legs. They really want to make it look bad, which doesn't make sense since there's only Jungle Cruise left to get out day and on date.

 

Is non-partisan journalism still alive in the US? It's like you can't trust anything coming from their media, there's always an agenda..even for something like entertainment, and when I say agenda I refer to Deadline's stance about PA

Edited by Fullbuster
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2 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

 

Is non-partisan journalism still alive in the US? It's like you can't trust anything coming from their media, there's always an agenda..even for something like entertainment, and when I say agenda I refer to Deadline's stance about PA

Seems like it. I mean, they work in this business so i get the protective tone about theaters etc.

 

But i mean, we're probably getting an +90M OW for the first time in almost 2 years, and way earlier than lots of people expect giving the ongoing pandemic.

 

How can someone turn an record debut (and by a large margin) in something potentially bad because the movie is also available at a platform for 30 dollars.

 

When everything was uncertain there was this discussions about how strategies like Disney PA could destroy theaters, but honestly, it's obviously not doing any big damage and it's not preventing the movies to generate millions so i think it's time for media stop pretending like there was a big problem. Especially because they're not even doing this beyond July.

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Let me just take the time between all this Samba debate and BW speculation to recommend the movie Summer of Soul, particularly if it's playing at a theater near you. It's truly exciting, energetic stuff.

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9 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Why does Guardians of the Galaxy 3 need to exist when they are all in Thor next year? Isn't that the big use of them?

The Search For Gamora.

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11 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm curious - what were people predicting for Black Widow pre-pandemic? I had it at $115m, but I've seen some people say as high as $140m.

150m

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Precovid 100m OW

Now expecting 80m OW 

 

BW should have been theatrical only no Disney PA bullshit.

Edited by Mojoguy
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If this ends up with a 40M Friday and 82M OW I will laugh SOOOOOOOO hard.

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