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BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

By Cap, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

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Mojoguy Global Phenomenon

Mojoguy

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11 minutes ago, Cap said:

If this ends up with a 40M Friday and 82M OW I will laugh SOOOOOOOO hard.

I'm still expecting every movie to be hit with a 20% DOM drop from what they could have made prepandemic.

 

80m OW would be a win for BW.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

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6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

How are people getting barely 80M weekend from a 40M Friday? Seems like 90 is at least a lock from that

 

They're reacting to the 82 cents thing on the cover.

 

Much more likely Rth is saying 40.8m than anything else.

Edited by Porthos
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

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I really don’t know if the 82 means anything, just interpreting as 40M OD personally.   
 

That should take it to about 89 or so, obviously Sat is a very important variable and could play out in a couple different ways.

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

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30 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

A- Cinemascore

 

This feels legit.  It's a solid romp but between the "This Should've Been Released X Years Ago" feels and no HOLY SHIT GASP moment, I totally get the A-.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

They're reacting to the 82 cents thing on the cover.

 

That is absolutely what I am reacting to.  I mean it's right there!  How can you not react!

 

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

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Spoiler

 

4 hours ago, IceFire9yt said:

So I've been doing some math, looking at the True Friday:Thursday ratio and what that can tell us about the OW.  I did something like this with Endgame using early Friday numbers and got a 357M opening weekend, which was right on the money.  Back then, I looked at the Thursday preview numbers for every movie had a 150+ OW, took the ratio to true Friday, and plotted the correlation with the Internal Multiplier (ratio of previews to OW).  Turns out there's a strong correlation.  I decided to expand this to almost all movies that opened over 100M, and got a R-squared value of over .95 (quite strong). 

jVJ7ARb.png

Anyway, I plugged the early BW numbers in.  A 40M total Friday (26.8M true Friday)- would suggest a 93.8M opening weekend.  A 42M Friday would suggest 99.4M, so that's my target to have a good shot at 100M.  Of course, there's still a lot of room for variance here, what with the pandemic and Disney+, but the fact that this performed so well for Endgame (which was an unprecedented weekend) and that the data point is in a very well populated part of the graph has me optimistic.

 

In the spoiler is the raw data.  4 movies were excluded- Indiana Jones 4, Shrek 2, and Revenge of the Sith because they had non-standard release days.  Shrek 3 because it didn't have a wide Thursday midnight release.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

Neat post. And I want to thank you especially for providing that raw data, which was very convenient to pop into a sheet and play around with directly.   
 

Unfortunately, I must confess that the results of that playing around leave me a little skeptical as to the usefulness of this particular observation. It’s true that the linear fit is very robust, but this seems more like an artifact of the mathematical nature of the two quantities involved than a causal relationship that can be used for forward prediction.    
 

Specifically:

OW=prev+TFri+Sat+Sun

->OW=prev+TFri+TFri*(Sat/TFri)+TFri*(Sat/TFri)*(Sun/Sat)

->OW=prev+TFri(1+Sat%+Sat%*Sun%)

->OW/prev=(prev+TFri(1+Sat%+Sat%*Sun%))/prev

->IM=1+(TFri/prev)(1+Sat%+Sat%*Sun%)


Which makes the implicit linear nature of the relationship fairly clear. That (1+Sat%+Sat%*Sun%) term btw is equal to True FSS/TFri, a quantity I like to call the true IM.   
 

In any case, this shows that the more stable True IMs are from movie to movie, the stronger a fit we should have between Tfri/prev and IM. And since in practice both Sat/TFri and Sun/Sat tend to fall in fairly reliable ranges for openers of this size (.95-1.25 or so for Sat/TFri and .7-.85 for Sun/Sat), the True IM indeed tends to be pretty stable.    
 

The prediction of Sat+Sun based on that linear correlation and data for prev+True Fri (implied from OW~=prev*(2.82(TFri/prev)+1.38) )looks decent at first, but actually slightly underperforms a simple baseline model of True IM fixed at the geometric mean true IM of those movies (implied from OW=Prev+TFri*2.94) in terms of % error or rmse. 
 

FWIW the baseline model suggests 92M from a 40M OD, but I think if you had a baseline seasonal with a school_fri/not_school_fri variable that used either geomean school_fri True IM or geomean not_school_fri True IM, as appropriate, you would see significant gains (since Sat% is more important than Sun% and largely governed by whether Sat vs Fri is non school vs  or nonschool vs nonschool). I feel fairly confident that not_school_fri True IM would be 2.85 or less, and there are reasons to expect it even lower for BW specifically, thus my 40->89M suggestion above. 
 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11m0LufC32ioQS-ZJa81voHhKEd2XiJShnGIV60wRcl0/edit

Edited by Lokis Legion
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

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It’s better than a lot of MCU As, but then again so is AM&tW. Too bad there isn’t more granularity, there are some As that I suspect were very close to A+ and some I suspect were very close to A-, whereas I assume this A- is very close to A bit if it was very close to B+ that would be much more concerning.

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ThomasNicole Blockbuster

ThomasNicole

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Just saw the movie. I think A- is appropriate... And so Thor is still the only MCU movie to not get some A grading lol

 

And this movie is really way off it's right timing. I though it wouldn't make much difference but the movie constantly remind us of how more useful it would be if it was released before IW.

 

It's fun to watch tho, great cast, they nailed the characters, and the action is pretty entertaining even when it's too much.

 

With 40M Friday, OW probably will be 85-87M for a 230-250M final, i'm satisfied.

 

 

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

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If we go 40M OD I’ll just call that 76M True FSS. Should go to 13.2+76*3 at least (not expecting too much more since reception is good not great). That would be 240. Would have loved 300 but between PA and covid issues dragging on it’s a pretty strong showing. I imagine Disney will be quite happy in terms of ROI as well but we’ll need to wait like a month for Nielsen data and even that is imperfect. 😔

Edited by Lokis Legion
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My MCU ratings
MCU-Rated.png

I thought graph was good way to show it.


Rankings, changeable time to time

https://letterboxd.com/itsjat32/list/marvel-cinematic-universe-ranked/


 

Oh, that graph is nice way to show it. Could you make a template copy and share it?

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