BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Not a failure or disappointment but I can't say I am satisfied with the result since 100m is pretty much dead unless MCU's Saturday strikes back.   

We’ve known $100m wasn’t a possibility for a few days now. Disney+/Pandemic are to blame for that one. 
 

 

On a side note: That Deadline article includes some insider word on why Disney didn’t release Luca in cinemas: they got the impression it was a $30m opener. 

[John Marston]

125m? Deadline back to smoking 

[Krissykins]

Just now, John Marston said:

125m? Deadline back to smoking 

That’s for the whole top 10, not BW. 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Just now, John Marston said:

125m? Deadline back to smoking 

They are referring to the entire box office. 

[Valonqar]

This is far from disappointment. Pandemic, hybrid, side-quest with the dead character. All things considered, it's a pretty fantastic opening weekend number. 

[lorddemaxus]

nevermind

Edited July 10, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

We’ve known $100m wasn’t a possibility for a few days now. Disney+/Pandemic are to blame for that one. 
 

 

On a side note: That Deadline article includes some insider word on why Disney didn’t release Luca in cinemas: they got the impression it was a $30m opener. 

 

Of course, if Space Jam 2 opens over $30M next weekend, Disney might end up regretting that move, b/c parents may just want a "known quantity" movie, and Pixar is always known quantity...

 

PS - It would be hilarious if Space Jam 2 wins next weekend.  No idea if Lebron is popular enough to pull in kid viewers, although Looney Tunes will pull in parents if kids are insistent:)...it's my wildcard movie of the summer - you could tell me it will open from $10-60M and I'd believe you:)...

 

Edit to Add: And how did I not know MJ has a cameo in movie #2 - genius move, WB...https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/michael-jordan-will-make-an-appearance-in-space-jam-a-new-legacy-don-cheadle-says/

Edited July 10, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Of course, if Space Jam 2 opens over $30M next weekend, Disney might end up regretting that move, b/c parents may just want a "known quantity" movie, and Pixar is always known quantity...

 

PS - It would be hilarious if Space Jam 2 wins next weekend.  No idea if Lebron is popular enough to pull in kid viewers, although Looney Tunes will pull in parents if kids are insistent:)...it's my wildcard movie of the summer - you could tell me it will open from $10-60M and I'd believe you:)...

It says they can’t risk a $30m opener with Pixar, they’re expected to dominate. I’d imagine it because they usually cost so much to make. 

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

We’ve known $100m wasn’t a possibility for a few days now. Disney+/Pandemic are to blame for that one. 
 

 

On a side note: That Deadline article includes some insider word on why Disney didn’t release Luca in cinemas: they got the impression it was a $30m opener. 

That analysis is unacceptable since Luca wasn't even on PA. If they can't afford to have a 30m opener under Pixar brand, when what is Raya? Is WDAS any lesser than Pixar? In fact, WDAS original movies' quality and box office were better than Pixar in the last decade     

[ecstasy]

This is a great result for BW. Hopefully, this will spark more movie going in the future. I might just go and see it today or tomorrow.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

It says they can’t risk a $30m opener with Pixar, they’re expected to dominate. I’d imagine it because they usually cost so much to make. 

 

But if Space Jam 2 goes $30M+, you'd really think Luca on Father's Day weekend wouldn't have doubled that?  Now, we have to see Space Jam 2 go high 1st, but if it does, it would be a hindsight mistake for Disney...

[DAJK]

A Dr Strange dom/ww run for BW would be pretty solid. Expecting Shang Chi to do around 170/550 and Eternals 275/700.

 

Spider-Man is doing a billion, I’m sure of it.

[John Marston]

It’s a decent number for BW but nothing amazing being based on an established hero 

[Legion Again]

On 7/8/2021 at 1:42 PM, Lokis Legion said:

Hey hey hey, I have already made the decree

 

 

On 7/6/2021 at 1:50 PM, Lokis Legion said:

As everyone knows I’m hoping for 100 plus, but I’m going to set the disappointment/flop/crumbling/meltdown bar at 85,737,841

 

@Porthos  

We’re going above the bar 👍

[john2000]

lets see how saturday goes fingers crossed

[MrPink]

10 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

This is a great result for BW. Hopefully, this will spark more movie going in the future. I might just go and see it today or tomorrow.

ecstasy! 

[Eric Atreides]

I dug Luca, but it would not have been a big grosser or do 60M even during normal times. It’s pretty low key and most of the reactions are “it’s pretty good”, which doesnt signal to me anything in terms of crazy legs or a big debut. Cars 3 numbers, at least domestically, seemed like a good range in normal times IMO. In a way, I’m kind of glad about this going to D+ since it would have discouraged Pixar from low key, small scale stuff like Luca in the future

[YM!]

Strong number for Widow, around what I was expecting. I think pre pandemic it’d be a bit higher but I think it could’ve done about the same. Doctor Strange numbers are still a good result for this one.

 

Shang-Chi - 185/560

Eternals - 275/775

NWH - 475/1300, provided no virus surge

DSitMOM - 325/900

TLaT - 425/1100

BPWF - 600/1250

Marvels - 425/1200

AMatWQM - 285/835

GoTGv3 - 375/1000

 

I think we got spoiled by Phase 3’s performance and started to think 300m DOM and 1b WW is the norm for the MCU films. Black Panther was the first large scale African American blockbuster movie that had cultural impact as Captain Marvel was an essentially part of Endgame and was viewed as must see as well as was the MCU first female lead movie. Not to mention things like Homecoming and Ragnarok had popular heroes already established as well as being team ups. I also think Phase 3 is arguably the big peak of the MCU as it was viewed as an event while Phase 4 is more akin to Phase 1 in new characters and stories as well as having Disney+ shows arguably diluting the must need to see urge. Sure, Shang Chi is the first Asian American hero and I think without Covid and in the old 2/12/21 slot would’ve broken out but I think the difference in audience being served and representation is different than in the case of Black Panther.

 

I think we’ll see more solo movies like Blade or F4 around Doctor Strange numbers than Panther or CM numbers which is nothing to feel bad about. I also think the larger team ups will be more around CW and IM3 than Avengers or IW.

[TigerPaw]

18 minutes ago, DAJK said:

A Dr Strange dom/ww run for BW would be pretty solid. Expecting Shang Chi to do around 170/550 and Eternals 275/700.

 

Spider-Man is doing a billion, I’m sure of it.

Let's see what hapoens to the Delta variant by September.

 

Last year COVID hit Asia first before Europe and America, if this variant follows a similar trend, we could see cases spiking up and restrictions being in place in US and Europe areas end of Q3, start of Q4. 🤷‍♂️

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Let's see what hapoens to the Delta variant by September.

 

Last year COVID hit Asia first before Europe and America, if this variant follows a similar trend, we could see cases spiking up and restrictions being in place in US and Europe areas end of Q3, start of Q4. 🤷‍♂️

indeed, however there were no vaccines before unlike now,  sec these vaccines are effective against this variant and last , vaccinations have and will gather more pace ,in any case i personally doubt that the sec half of 2021 will be like last year, finger crossed , so far alsmost 12% of the entire world is fully vaccinated, without counting those that were infected, are we in an ideal scenario no, are we better than last year ? hell yes

Edited July 10, 2021 by john2000