Jump to content
Cap

BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

Recommended Posts

I prefer 60 days window with some flexibility for underperformer like First man or Ad astra to go for PA after 30-45 days in cimema. Or 90 days theatrical window for strong holder or big blockbuster like Black panther, EG or Knives out, TGS and Oscar players. 

 

The problem now is studio just want to strike a blanket deal without much customization. There should be some parameter to allow which film to leave earlier or to stay longer in cinema. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly , I think Florence Pugh just stole the movie. She is so good in the movie. MCU actors are usually cast well but she is on top tier level in terms of casting. She made this 10 times as entertaining. I am so happy she has a bright future in MCU. Now , we want her solo movie. Pls Feige don't do her dirty like og Black Widow. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Still feel like the logical equilibrium is something like PA after a one month window, free streaming after 3

I feel like three weeks exclusive to theaters is really all you need. It will cut off the legs, but most of the money is made in the first three weeks. 🤷‍♀️

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Black Widow is currently in the trending section on Disney plus so it looks like lots of people are choosing to pay the thirty dollars and watch it from home. Will be interesting to see how long it stays in trending. If it stays in there for a considerable amount of time they will have made a lot of money from releasing it on the streaming site right away. Movies in general don't get into the trending section often as it is mainly tv shows on there. So when you have a movie on there where you have to pay an additional thirty dollars to see that is mighty impressive.

 

Edited by RockyMountain
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Yes i get that; but it also depends on the particular country's leaders and authorities on their view on things, and WHO's advice at that point of time.

 

I think it is important to be optimistic, but i am just being more cautiously optimistic than bullishly optimistic. 

I mean no one expected that when BW was delayed from May to July, that SEA and Taiwan will be pretty much closed, S.Korea facing tighter restrictions next week, part of Australia extending lockdown and China's release being delayed..(though last point is not COVID related). I would argue that on a worldwide gross basis (not net profit basis), BW would have done better in late Apr / May.

 

So we cannot predict everything and my post earlier was just trying to outline that the situation is not as straightforward as we think, it is fluid and can change drastically in a few weeks' time.

Well, this is a tricky part. USA and some other countries simply have higher tolerance to high admission number or number of death. Generally Asian countries and NZ/AU have lower tolerance. Take China as example, they have a very remarkable progress to vaccinate the citizen but they still freaked out over few clusters. 

  

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Cap said:

I feel like three weeks exclusive to theaters is really all you need. It will cut off the legs, but most of the money is made in the first three weeks. 🤷‍♀️

Disagree and why the rush?

 

Remember, one may never be able to see a movie on big screen once they are out but we can always catch them through streaming afterwards. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Well, this is a tricky part. USA and some other countries simply have higher tolerance to high admission number or number of death. Generally Asian countries and NZ/AU have lower tolerance. Take China as example, they have a very remarkable progress to vaccinate the citizen but they still freaked out over few clusters. 

  

 

That is mostly because they know their vaccine is shit and doesn't work.  They are on the verge of cutting a deal to bring in the Pfizer vaccine.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

This weekend will also show studios yet again that the only model that truly makes sense going forward is an exclusive theatrical window followed by a PVOD window and then finally release on their native streaming platform.  

 

There is not a single customer that will cancel their Disney+ subscription if they get Black Widow in 90 days instead of day and date.  

 

Give theaters at least 45 days, then go to PVOD 45 days and then to Disney+.  Everyone wins.  

We will see how Disney reacts; if they suddenly announce Shang Chi to become a hybrid release, then it means the PA strategy for BW works.

 

I mean in a box office forum; we are of course slightly bias towards seeing big box office figures because it is visible; but profit margin wise - PA makes more sense for Disney. Imagine 5 million users pay for PA (on top of their sub fee), they have USD150m more in revenues (and arguably profits)... and I would expect some fans who already watched it in theaters and went home to still pay for PA...

 

It is not just whether people cancel their subscription but whether there are new people subscribing + paying PA fees to watch such films - and unfortunately these numbers are not transparent to us.

 

If Disney sees that they are not earning much from PA, and that there are more cons than pros - i.e dampening box office prospects, piracy impacting overseas gross - then naturally Jungle Cruise will be their last big budget simultaneous release.

 

There are a lot of considerations but we will see. Disney did say that streaming is their focus going forward..

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Cap said:

I feel like three weeks exclusive to theaters is really all you need. It will cut off the legs, but most of the money is made in the first three weeks. 🤷‍♀️

 

3 weeks isn't long enough.  45 days or 60 days is much better.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Black Widow is currently in the trending section on Disney plus so it looks like lots of people are choosing to pay the thirty dollars and watch it from home. Will be interesting to see how long it stays in trending. If it stays in there for a considerable amount of time they will have made a lot of money from releasing it on the streaming site right away. Movies in general don't get into the trending section often as it is mainly tv shows on there. So when you have a movie on there where you have to pay an additional thirty dollars to see that is mighty impressive.

 

This... is what I mean.

 

Just because we don't see the figures doesn't mean it is not doing well. If the experiment is a success, Disney will announce more hybrid releases.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep all eyes on CinemaCon at the end of August.  It will be the first time that studios and theatrical are face to face with each other and the pressure from the theatrical industry to announce an exclusive window will be huge.  

 

The DGA already took the first step saying they will not consider any film without a theatrical exclusive for their awards.  Expect the WGA and SAG to follow suit.  

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

This... is what I mean.

 

Just because we don't see the figures doesn't mean it is not doing well. If the experiment is a success, Disney will announce more hybrid releases.

 

Yes. It getting into the trending section at all probably indicates that they will do the hybrid release again. And if hybrid releases continue to do well on Disney plus it very well may become permanent as we all know by now that streaming site dollars is more important to them then theater dollars.

Edited by RockyMountain
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Spider-Man will be the next 100m opener, but I think Matrix 4 could do it too except the release date is in the middle of the week which will prevent it. Matrix 4 in the summer on a normal three day weekend would do 115m+ OW, IMO - people underappreciate the buzz, it's like Jurassic World 1 where it's a great alignment of generations and relevance.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, VENOM said:

People were expecting 100+ OW so 88 has to be a big let down, it’s not even close.

 

No.  This is silly.  

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

3 weeks isn't long enough.  45 days or 60 days is much better.  

60 seems pretty excessive, most movies are doing pennies from days 46-60. Depending on how aggressively you want to capitalize on PVOD vs exhibition I could see ending up anywhere from 21 to 45, went with one month as a sort of middle ground.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, VENOM said:

People were expecting 100+ OW so 88 has to be a big let down, it’s not even close.

It is def a disappointment if you were expecting 140m OW prior to the pandemic, but if you were expecting 115m OW for an Ant-Man esque minor solo film, 90ish is not that bad considering pandemic + premiere access. I def think it would have hit 100m without the Disney+ bullshit.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Spider-Man will be the next 100m opener, but I think Matrix 4 could do it too except the release date is in the middle of the week which will prevent it. Matrix 4 in the summer on a normal three day weekend would do 115m+ OW, IMO - people underappreciate the buzz, it's like Jurassic World 1 where it's a great alignment of generations and relevance.

 

Top Gun: Maverick could have an outside shot.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, VENOM said:

People were expecting 100+ OW so 88 has to be a big let down, it’s not even close.

AHEM

1 hour ago, Lokis Legion said:

 

We’re going above the bar 👍

 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.