BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[fmpro]

52 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I get in countries that haven't had the chance to vaccinate, this makes sense, but in the United States every single person 12+ has had the chance to be vaccinated.  

 

Delta variant might have breakthrough infections on the vaccinated, but the effects are either asymptomatic or very mild that resemble a common cold.  

 

People need to realize you can't protect the people unwilling to get vaccinated and shouldn't change anything for them at this point, and if the Delta variant runs wild in populations in the United States that are anti-vax, then so be it.  

Nice to have you back. I missed you posting. Don`t go batshit crazy again and run away

[VENOM]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It is def a disappointment if you were expecting 140m OW prior to the pandemic, but if you were expecting 115m OW for an Ant-Man esque minor solo film, 90ish is not that bad considering pandemic + premiere access. I def think it would have hit 100m without the Disney+ bullshit.

They were expecting 100 up until a few hours ago.. can’t use the pandemic card this time, America is vaccinated and fully open.

[filmlover]

Pretty good holds (relatively speaking, of course) across the board in the wake of Black Widow opening to huge numbers. Looks like 4th of July returning did cause harsher drops than normal over the holiday frame.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, VENOM said:

They were expecting 100 up until a few hours ago.. can’t use the pandemic card this time, America is vaccinated and fully open.

You seem to be really desperate to call this a disappointment. 100 was never the expectation from a 13.2 million Thursday.

[fabiopazzo2]

40 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I expect F9 numbers for Shang Chi and Eternals but Spidey 3 will blow up.

 

That plus The Matrix 4 will put box office in full swing.

 

Setting up The Batman to smash records. That's assuming there are no variant D shenanigans. 

 

Im expect more frome Eternals and maybe 60m for Shang Chi

[Ledmonkey96]

3 minutes ago, VENOM said:

They were expecting 100 up until a few hours ago.. can’t use the pandemic card this time, America is vaccinated and fully open.

ya America is, pretty sure most of Canada is still shut down and that's >10% of the market.

[RockyMountain]

I have a feeling that this is going to be one of the first signs we have that it is going to be difficult for the Theater business to ever get back to its 2017-2019 levels. I have a feeling that 600-800m is going to become the new standard for what a blockbuster should shoot for and movies actually getting to a billion will become much more of a rarity and will become something to celebrate when/if it does happen again.

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

You seem to be really desperate to call this a disappointment. 100 was never the expectation from a 13.2 million Thursday.

If you follow his post history, he’s one of those dudes who loves to troll Disney movies whenever they slightly underperform. Dude also threw a hissy fit at the staff when we closed the Fanboy Wars thread. Pay him no mind

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

60 seems pretty excessive, most movies are doing pennies from days 46-60. Depending on how aggressively you want to capitalize on PVOD vs exhibition I could see ending up anywhere from 21 to 45, went with one month as a sort of middle ground.

How can 60 days theatrical exclusive window be excessive when streaming got forever exclusive window after theatrical run?

 

15 minutes ago, VENOM said:

People were expecting 100+ OW so 88 has to be a big let down, it’s not even close.

I wasn't expecting 100m especially although I want it at come above 100m. Most of the poster here aren't really expecting 100m opening but they are just hope for it. 

[BK007]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

We’ve known $100m wasn’t a possibility for a few days now. Disney+/Pandemic are to blame for that one. 
 

 

On a side note: That Deadline article includes some insider word on why Disney didn’t release Luca in cinemas: they got the impression it was a $30m opener. 

 

$30m would've been amazing. I think it could've hit $100m with that, but now they got $0. So that's a braindead excuse, and not sure why it's even being made.

 

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

It says they can’t risk a $30m opener with Pixar, they’re expected to dominate. I’d imagine it because they usually cost so much to make. 

 

Yeah, but now they got $0. As above, it's a braindead excuse. Disney leadership trying to force streaming, that's it.

 

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

That analysis is unacceptable since Luca wasn't even on PA. If they can't afford to have a 30m opener under Pixar brand, when what is Raya? Is WDAS any lesser than Pixar? In fact, WDAS original movies' quality and box office were better than Pixar in the last decade     

 

Exactly. Dumb excuses from Iger or whoever. 

 

1 hour ago, Eric Belov said:

I dug Luca, but it would not have been a big grosser or do 60M even during normal times. It’s pretty low key and most of the reactions are “it’s pretty good”, which doesnt signal to me anything in terms of crazy legs or a big debut. Cars 3 numbers, at least domestically, seemed like a good range in normal times IMO. In a way, I’m kind of glad about this going to D+ since it would have discouraged Pixar from low key, small scale stuff like Luca in the future

 

It's not like they haven't been accustomed to that already with The Good Dinosaur, Cars 3 - Onward was never going to have great legs anyway, pandemic or not. Luca was better and could've got a decent total, if not $200m. I think it would've done well in Europe and globally, but no chance since it's on Disney+ everywhere.

 

35 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

They're so not doing it.

 

The theatrical exclusive for 45 days sure, Warner even make deals with this model for 2022.

 

But they're not using PVOD if they can put on their platform, streaming is the future. Warner and Disney want to compete to Netflix and their theatrical movies reaching the platforms weeks after release is one of their strenghts.

 

People keep repeating this like they're willing it to happen. Netflix is a global player. Only Disney+ can rival it in terms of reach, but in terms of content none are even close. Universal, Sony, WB and Paramount aren't even in control of their own destiny. They can't spend like Netflix and cannot compete globally unless they are more mergers which shouldn't happen. 

 

Disney potentially can but what business sense is there to forgo billions of dollars? Fastest way to kill the golden goose is devalue it. MCU would never have reached the heights it did with everything debuting on streaming. 

 

22 minutes ago, Cap said:

I feel like three weeks exclusive to theaters is really all you need. It will cut off the legs, but most of the money is made in the first three weeks. 🤷‍♀️

 

Yeah, but if the audience knows it's coming on day 22, the whole gross will be depressed. And this is a box office site. Are we really chomping at the bit for depressed box office and Premiere Access? All these discussions will evaporate forever because the streamers aren't going to reveal anything they don't need to - which is anything of value.

 

8 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

We will see how Disney reacts; if they suddenly announce Shang Chi to become a hybrid release, then it means the PA strategy for BW works.

 

I mean in a box office forum; we are of course slightly bias towards seeing big box office figures because it is visible; but profit margin wise - PA makes more sense for Disney. Imagine 5 million users pay for PA (on top of their sub fee), they have USD150m more in revenues (and arguably profits)... and I would expect some fans who already watched it in theaters and went home to still pay for PA...

 

It is not just whether people cancel their subscription but whether there are new people subscribing + paying PA fees to watch such films - and unfortunately these numbers are not transparent to us.

 

If Disney sees that they are not earning much from PA, and that there are more cons than pros - i.e dampening box office prospects, piracy impacting overseas gross - then naturally Jungle Cruise will be their last big budget simultaneous release.

 

There are a lot of considerations but we will see. Disney did say that streaming is their focus going forward..

 

It's short term thinking. Kill the theatres and ? 

 

Does everyone really think that movies can keep debuting on streaming and be cultural events? Heck, not a single one has come close. Disney only care about their shareholders and executives, as usual. Tell Feige that all his movies have to debut on streaming and reside there forever. 

 

Then again, maybe it's because American theatres (and America in general) are so rundown. I live in a 3rd world country and from when I was a kid you chose your seats like live theatre. How is that not in every American theatre? 

 

Anyway, I can't believe on a box office forum there is a widespread acceptance of streaming being the future of movies. Then again, Hollywood does always take the wrong lessons from success stories. 

[VENOM]

15 minutes ago, Menor said:

You seem to be really desperate to call this a disappointment. 100 was never the expectation from a 13.2 million Thursday.

Read what I wrote again.. what I said is people were expecting 100 OW (even on this very thread some still are) so 88 has to be a big let down because it’s not even close. What’s wrong with that?

Edited July 10, 2021 by VENOM

[filmlover]

Spider-Man will likely be the first $100M+ opener unless the holidays deflate the opening a bit (it'll be the first MCU movie to open around Christmas). Full recovery (as well as the return of theatrical exclusivity) by the time 2022 gets here is looking better each week.

[Cmasterclay]

Based on sales and local buzz, I think people might be surprised by Space Jam 2 next week, but the big caveat should be that black-led and marketed films are always something I tend to slightly overestimate due to geography and friend groups. Still, 30m OW would not stun me.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I think it is beyond decent.  No other MCU movie has had to face a large amount of theaters still closed or operating at reduced capacity, day and date availability on a streaming platform, long delays and various other factors working against it.  

 

This opens at $125m+ if all the conditions are normal.  Getting $90m this weekend is incredible.  

yes this. Exactly! 

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

This weekend will also show studios yet again that the only model that truly makes sense going forward is an exclusive theatrical window followed by a PVOD window and then finally release on their native streaming platform.  

 

There is not a single customer that will cancel their Disney+ subscription if they get Black Widow in 90 days instead of day and date.  

 

Give theaters at least 45 days, then go to PVOD 45 days and then to Disney+.  Everyone wins.  

Also yes to this. You’re on top form! 😂

14 minutes ago, VENOM said:

They were expecting 100 up until a few hours ago.. can’t use the pandemic card this time, America is vaccinated and fully open.

No one really was expecting it. Some people on here were hoping for $100m. But nothing pointed towards it. Industry tracking was $75-85m. 
 

a new pandemic record while available the same day at home = this is a huge win for Black Widow. 

[VENOM]

10 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

If you follow his post history, he’s one of those dudes who loves to troll Disney movies whenever they slightly underperform. Dude also threw a hissy fit at the staff when we closed the Fanboy Wars thread. Pay him no mind

Apparently I’m a troll now for telling it how it is.. ok dude!

[Porthos]

 

(just kidding, it's a perfectly cromulent result, but the "not great not terrible" meme was too easy to pass up)

 

[BK007]

17 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

60 seems pretty excessive, most movies are doing pennies from days 46-60. Depending on how aggressively you want to capitalize on PVOD vs exhibition I could see ending up anywhere from 21 to 45, went with one month as a sort of middle ground.

 

What incentive is there for theatres to play ball? 

 

Even now all of the studios had to make deals with the theatres to be able to do their experiments. 

 

Warner turned out to be the biggest shitshow. I wonder how much they are actually losing after having to pay off all the talent based on grosses they didn't actually hit and the majority of subscribers already being subscribed to HBO Max in the first place. 

 

In fact, it is the hubris of the American CEO that has led to all these streaming platforms without seemingly any real plan. Netflix was visionary. That wanker Iger was as well, but the rest of them are clueless. Sabotaging their profit streams and relying on a single market when their competitors are global. Heck, the majority of Americans don't even know about Paramount+ and Peacock. No one cares about the Office outside America. What is their plan? 

 

The same goes for Apple and Amazon but they have cash to burn and write off. Warner was already merged with Discovery because AT&T proved to be clueless. 

 

What I don't get is that all of this is pretty damn obvious and yet hardly anyone seems to be able to see it. Come on people.

[fabiopazzo2]

5 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

I have a feeling that this is going to be one of the first signs we have that it is going to be difficult for the Theater business to ever get back to its 2017-2019 levels. I have a feeling that 600-800m is going to become the new standard for what a blockbuster should shoot for and movies actually getting to a billion will become much more of a rarity and will become something to celebrate when/if it does happen again.

it seems normal to me, it will take time to get back to normal, it is not that we can cancel everything that has happened in 1 year.

As of today, the billion dollar event film is missing, the first will likely be Spider man

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, BK007 said:

What incentive is there for theatres to play ball? 

I don’t understand. What “incentive?” What “theaters playing ball?”   
 

Theaters play movies that studios allow them to play, or they literally go out of business. That’s the economic relationship there.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, VENOM said:

Apparently I’m a troll now for telling it how it is.. ok dude!

 

Nearly no one was seriously, and I do mean the word 'seriously', expecting 100m once Thr preview numbers came in.

 

As for whether or not you are actually trolling? That's for the Staff to decide, not me.

 

I would note, however, the complete lack of meltdowns in this thread.  BOT may be many things.  But "chill in the face of disappointing numbers" ain't one of them, as ITH recently proved.

 

I would tend to think the lack of any real meltdown is sign enough that practically no one is all that disappointed by this Fri number.