BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Madhuvan]

Okay , I am blaming Disney if it's goes below 85m. Family audience chose PA over going to theatre.

Disney better release PA numbers. MCU shouldn't be treated this badly , it's literally their biggest brand. 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Madhuvan

[Menor the Destroyer]

31 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Very different from Captain Marvel age-wise, I wonder why.

Males accounted for 55% of audiences, while 74% of moviegoers were over the age of 25. It’s nice to see the guys getting behind some female empowerment too.

 

 

Under 25 people are (reasonably) much less worried about Covid risks. Also it's a summer release. 

 

Edit: Actually summer may not affect things that much. Homecoming was 59% over 25 for the weekend (probably 62% for Friday) and the same for AMATW. Maybe just Covid or more older audiences (and parents) are opting for PA.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Menor

[VENOM]

12 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Okay , I am blaming Disney if it's goes below 85m. Family audience chose PA over going to theatre.

Disney better release PA numbers. MCU shouldn't be treated this badly , it's literally their biggest brand. 

But but the pandemic 

[Ryan Reynolds]

52 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

wait 25m sat?? why ?? Is PA affecting movie so drastically. I might have a meltdown afterall 😶

some fans that would pay to see twice opening weekend , probably watched it once opening night  , and are ok just pirating it for repeat viewings

Edited July 10, 2021 by Ryan Reynolds

[grey ghost]

46 minutes ago, VENOM said:

Would you pay 30 dollars to watch it on a small screen? 

Even if the answer is yes plenty of people here were predicting at least 100+ OW. Didn’t deadline have it pegged as high as 125? So 88 for a MCU film with Disney’s marketing has to be a big disappointment for those people. F9 is also in the same boat in that it was nothing spectacular and the second week drop was big. Both franchises are getting repetitive.

 

Most people did not expect 125 m from BW. I'd say the average prediction was in the 85-95 range. You're pretending the 110+ m predictions were the norm but there were very few predicting those numbers.

 

And now you're low key blaming franchise fatigue for the biggest OW since 2019. 

 

How many people watched this at home? I don't know but I know I'm watching it with the wife at home tonight. We still don't trust crowded theaters and I'm sure there are many others. We're vaccinated but our kids are not and we don't want to give them variant D. I say this as someone who loves watching MCU films opening weekend with a crowd.

 

 

Edited July 10, 2021 by grey ghost

[grey ghost]

On 7/8/2021 at 4:34 PM, grey ghost said:

Anything under 90m is a flop. 

 

I remember when I made this joke.

 

It seems life imitates "art".

[Legion Again]

I would like to remind people that Sats have been getting weak bumps from (true) Fri all year relative to 2015-2019 — and the last 3 July MCU openers has Sat bumps of 4.7%, 5.9%, and 4.7%.   
 

I was thinking a Sat change of around -2% to +5% before considering PA at all. If it does come in at -5% or something, the math isn’t really there to act like it’s PA having a big effect (in terms of families or rewatchers).

[Eric Atreides]

Moderation

 

@VENOM has been threadbanned for poisoning the well and causing unneeded toxicity

[fabiopazzo2]

1 hour ago, Lokis Legion said:

Okay, let’s pull up the rest of the calendar and I’ll sketch out some quick (quick) hits.  

BW: 86/225

TSS (Aug 6): 50/125

Shang-Chi (Sep 3): 75/225

V2 (Sep 24): 70/175

NTTD (Oct 8): 80/220

Dune: (Oct 22): 40/110

Eternals (Nov 5): 95/275

Encanto  (Nov 24, 🦃 Wed): 40/60/160

NWH: 160/520

 

Matrix and Sing could also go 150+, but let’s just end there.

 

 

 

160 would be insane

[keysersoze123]

TV's today are very good. I have seen 77' OLED TV's which are better than any movie theater screens. That is big enough to watch at home at a distance of 8-10 feet. Of course OLED's are still niche but doubling every year. I expect in next 3 years I expect every middle class household and up will have 1 or more large screen tvs which are great for watching movies. So hybrid model will have a big impact on ticket sales for sure. Who would want to pay 30-40 bucks at a mulitplex for crappy popcorn and sugary drinks on top of ticket prices that are going up. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Lokis Legion said:

Okay, let’s pull up the rest of the calendar and I’ll sketch out some quick (quick) hits.  

BW: 86/225

TSS (Aug 6): 50/125

Shang-Chi (Sep 3): 75/225

V2 (Sep 24): 70/175

NTTD (Oct 8): 80/220

Dune: (Oct 22): 40/110

Eternals (Nov 5): 95/275

Encanto  (Nov 24, 🦃 Wed): 40/60/160

NWH: 160/520

 

Matrix and Sing could also go 150+, but let’s just end there.

 

 

 

Seems like a fairly high multi for Shang-Chi

[cax16]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

TV's today are very good. I have seen 77' OLED TV's which are better than any movie theater screens. That is big enough to watch at home at a distance of 8-10 feet. Of course OLED's are still niche but doubling every year. I expect in next 3 years I expect every middle class household and up will have 1 or more large screen tvs which are great for watching movies. So hybrid model will have a big impact on ticket sales for sure. Who would want to pay 30-40 bucks at a mulitplex for crappy popcorn and sugary drinks on top of ticket prices that are going up. 

I mean that’s the thing right, I paid $40 for BW at home, I didn’t pay for popcorn or drinks etc and could then order dinner for the family for the money I saved. Normally tickets are $15-20/each for my family of 4, and then add in snacks etc which is easily another $40 at least. 

 

I’m not saying that’s what I’ll do in the future cause I love going to the theatre with the family  but I understand why they’re offering PA and why other families would take advantage of the service. 

[Cap]

I go to watch a movie with the Film Club and 

 

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

160 would be insane

I dunno, seemed like a pretty reasonable total for Encanto. What do you have instead?

 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Fullbuster]

I think Premiere Access will have been a good experience for both Disney and consumers in the end, Disney gets more money for itself and consumers get more choice.

 

However I think the new formula is the right one: First in theaters and then 30-45 days later on D+ => you get box office money and then shortly after money for subs / lowering churn, it's a scenario where theaters and streaming can coexist, those wanting to enjoy a great movie at home can wait 30/45 days without a problem while others get their theatrical experience: choice is preserved and without the $30 of PA.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Fullbuster

[Cap]

31 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

some fans that would pay to see twice opening weekend , probably watched it once opening night and , and are ok just pirating it for repeat viewings

This. This right here. 
 

I will use myself as an explain. I am a diehard MCU fans. Steve Rogers and Sam Wilson live rent free in my mind. I normally do 2-3 showings of an MCU on opening weekend. I did 6 for EG. And for overall showings I do probably 4. I know I saw TFA, IW, and EG 10 times. 
 

But now my closest theater is 40 minutes away instead of 5, and I can access the film for $30 at home and watch it every day? So that’s like unlimited access for 3 movie theater trips. 
 

it totally makes sense to see it once in theaters and then go do the repeats at home. 
 

And I am sure I’m not the only person who figured that out.

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I dunno, seemed like a pretty reasonable total for Encanto. What do you have instead?

 

  Hide contents

 

 

In the covid era would be amazing.

but why not?

 

The hype is real

[Jake Gittes]

7 minutes ago, Cap said:

I go to watch a movie with the Film Club and 

 

 

When you need to deal with that one toxic person stinking up the joint

 

[Eric Atreides]

15 minutes ago, Cap said:

I go to watch a movie with the Film Club and 

 

This is why I never come to these things. Somebody's gotta do the dirty work when the Queen's off on her own vices.

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

Okay, let’s pull up the rest of the calendar and I’ll sketch out some quick (quick) hits.  

BW: 86/225

TSS (Aug 6): 50/125

Shang-Chi (Sep 3): 75/225

V2 (Sep 24): 70/175

NTTD (Oct 8): 80/220

Dune: (Oct 22): 40/110

Eternals (Nov 5): 95/275

Encanto  (Nov 24, 🦃 Wed): 40/60/160

NWH: 160/520

 

Matrix and Sing could also go 150+, but let’s just end there.

 

 

 

Matrix will do more like double that.