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BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

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I expect Disney will be very happy with these numbers.

In general the MCU super-fans will go to the theaters, but some of the more casual fans may choose to watch on D+ instead.

My son and I usually go opening night for MCU movies but my son is not yet comfortable going into buildings with large numbers of people (and I don't know when that is going to change), so this is going to be a D+ movie for us with maybe a late viewing of it in the theaters if my son is more comfortable by then. 

 

The streaming options are more consumer friendly, if less theater friendly, giving consumers more choices in how to view content. The only issue is what is the long term statis going to be. Will companies stick with day and date, or will they move to a model of 30 days or so in a theater and then a streaming option. To some extent that will likely depend upon what the Entertainment companies see in the numbers over the next 6 months.

 

It is nice to be talking about movies again though.

 

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3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

3 weeks isn't long enough.  45 days or 60 days is much better.  

Honestly I feel like even a super early PVOD release doesn't mean much. If you look at Croods 2 or Nobody or Wrath of Man, they both went digital after 17 days and still had fairly standard runs even after they were available on VOD. Low competition helps here too, but it seems, at least legs-wise, early VOD doesn't really hurt much.

 

 

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

Yup.... the old gang is definitely back in regular form 🤣 keeping tabs on the threads the past month has been quiet, thanks for levity today.

FWIW, there's no Futurist or Lordmandeep mucking things up. That's good progress.

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3 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

 

FWIW, there's no Futurist or Lordmandeep mucking things up. That's good progress.

For now...

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12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Seems like a fairly high multi for Shang-Chi

Okay, time for a not so quick look then.  
 

Unfortunately there’s no existing big Labor Day openers to compare with, and the only MCU holiday Mon opener is BP, which is… a different beast, largely.   
 

This will be the first movie since DS1 where the headlining character hasn’t previously appeared or be teased in a big property (BW — IM2, TWS, CW, 4xAvengers, CM — IW cliffhanger+endgame marketing, BP — CW+IW marketing, Spider-man — CW+ he’s spider-man). Other movies with that criteria are:

AM1

GOtG1

Cap1

Thor

IM1

 

It’s not like that means it will be total apples and oranges, but I imagine the GA won’t feel much need to rush out OW. Fri Sep 3 is mostly a school day, and Lagor Day Sats are basically normal Sats, so I imagine SC will go about +25% Sat (vs DS1 +35%, BP +30%, Thor3 +38%). Sunday basically flat. So that’s a True IM of ~3.5 (1+1.25+1.25).   
 

Now, previews. Th Sep 2 also basically a school day. BW just did prev as 33% of OD, in summer. Some of that may be pandemic stuff that has ebbed by Sep, so I’ll go for like 31% for SC. 
 

Those rough assumptions decompose a 75M OW into 8.5M Th, 19M True Fri, 23.7M Sat&Sun. Without a holiday Mon, that would instead be maybe 8.5+19+23.75+16.5 for a 60M tru FSS, adding 126M (3.1x legs from true FSS) for some 195M.  
 

But because of the holiday Mon would make about 18.5 for a cume of 93 or so, then add like 120 for… maybe 215ish?   
 

I guess I agree the slapdash nums were optimistic but only very slightly, mostly reflects an expectation that previews being mild will bog down the legs less and a little boost from the holiday Mon.

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I don't believe for one second that families or indeed the wider population will want to stay indoors indefinitely once things are somewhat back to normal because it's not particularly healthy for people to be indoors all the time and not have the experience of going out.

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1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I don't believe for one second that families or indeed the wider population will want to stay indoors indefinitely once things are somewhat back to normal because it's not particularly healthy for people to be indoors all the time and not have the experience of going out.

But there is one issue here, is cinemagoing an outdoor event?

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4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

But there is one issue here, is cinemagoing an outdoor event?

When I mean going out, it's doing leisure activities and that can include going to a sports game, the theatre, a concert, a museum etc as well as cinema going. 

Edited by Jonwo
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21 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Matrix will do more like double that.

Maybe? I would kind of enjoy that but I really don’t have much of a sense of what kind of pent up cross-generational demand there is.   
 

Anyway part of why I didn’t bother with nums for it is that I agree with EmpireCity — it’s probably getting delayed to 2022 to avoid MAX. Especially if WB agrees with you that it’s a 300+ potential.

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I really hope they don't delay Matrix 4. Movie is already in the can and it would be a big boost for John Wick next year. Holiday season needs a non-superhero blockbuster.

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

TV's today are very good. I have seen 77' OLED TV's which are better than any movie theater screens. That is big enough to watch at home at a distance of 8-10 feet. Of course OLED's are still niche but doubling every year. I expect in next 3 years I expect every middle class household and up will have 1 or more large screen tvs which are great for watching movies. So hybrid model will have a big impact on ticket sales for sure. Who would want to pay 30-40 bucks at a mulitplex for crappy popcorn and sugary drinks on top of ticket prices that are going up. 

Those OLED's are like £4000+, I could go cinema 400 times for that

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2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is no doubt the OD tapered off and PA obviously played a part. That will be confirmed with saturday numbers. In pre-covid times, most movies held flat or went up a little even in July. Here I its looking like dropping from Friday minus previews. 

 

Still OW being so strong plus revenue from PA would make Disney go this route for more movies. I expect a huge marvel ensemble or a star wars or Avatar to still be purely theatrical but for something smaller this route would yield maximum revenue for studio. Tough times for Theatrical chains for sure. AMC better hope it remains a Meme stock for it to keep making money diluting even more. Business will never return to normal for sure. 

God fuck Disney. Will never pay their shitty $30 rental fee.

 

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Everyone will be keeping an eye on AQP2, the exclusive window is almost over, it goes to P+ On Monday.

 

let’s see if it suddenly drops heavily.

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If theater business ends up dying we can probably point to Disney as the vulture that picked apart its carcass first opportunity.

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24 minutes ago, Chicago said:

Those OLED's are like £4000+, I could go cinema 400 times for that

I was talking about US. You can get 77CX for $2800. There was a sale at nearby store(Video Only) for $2200. Prices are falling every year. I expect it to be sub 2K in sale in next 2-3 years. 

 

Plus you dont buy it just for movies. Its great for live sports and great for gamers as well.

Edited by keysersoze123
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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I was talking about US. You can get 77CX for $2800. There was a sale at nearby store(Video Only) for $2200. Prices are falling every year. I expect it to be sub 2K in sale in next 2-3 years. 

 

Plus you dont buy it just for movies. Its great for live sports and great for gamers as well.

I don't see OLED prices affecting attendance at live sporting events, watching a live sporting event in person is very different to watching it on TV. 

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Watching at home is never the same, no matter how modern the TV is. 
 

There’s always a better TV just a year away. I just seen Black Widow for the second time, on a 12.5 metres high and 22.5 metres wide screen with 57 Dolby atmos speakers. 
 

It just can’t be matched at home, IMO. 

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