BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[BK007]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Not to mention that over and over it has been proven across every streaming platform that what works and sticks and gets into the cultural conversation is long form shows.  

 

Stranger Things, Game of Thrones, Making a Murderer, The Mandalorian, WandaVision, Loki, Ozark, Handmaid's Tale, Queen's Gambit, and so many others that consistently work in a huge way.  

 

Name 5 movies that released on streaming only that have entered the cultural conversation the way that any of those shows have.  

 

This is something that I think should be obvious and yet it seems people need to be told. 

 

1 hour ago, Eric Belov said:

Soul. Irishman. Marriage Story. Hamilton. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.

 

The level and longevity they've been into the conversation varies of course, and I'm not denying shows gain more traction (though they are helped by having more seasons) but I don't really totally buy the whole "streaming movies leave no impact" people like to shout all the time. The issue is more that the only things that people discuss online in terms of movies are either IPs or movies from fan-favorite directors and a good majority of movies on streaming...aren't IPs or made by fan-favorite directors.

 

This also applies to theatrical fare, even for hit movies. When was the last time you saw somebody talk about Hustlers? Or Wonder? Or even Hidden Figures?

 

Besides the Irishman, all of those were intended to be theatrical movies. Soul received a lot of marketing teasing its multiple release dates. Borat was boosted by politics more than anything. Hamilton was already a phenomenon - but solely in America. The other two have limited impact. 

 

The best comparison are all Netflix's streaming only films. All of them have had no cultural impact despite dominating for one weekend lol. I mean, this is obvious. The marketing campaigns are inherently different. There is limited or no tie-ins anywhere else to create conversation. 

 

Except those hit movies are worth something to streamers and other pay windows. Streaming originals can only reside on the platform that created them and have 0 data to associate popularity or value besides numbers coming from the platform. There is no trust. 

 

Anyway, the whole scenario is a lose-lose-lose for everyone involved. As others have alluded to in this thread, repeat viewings from fans can be cut down to non-existent. This hurts both theatres and the streamers who have lost out by forcing their movies out unnecessarily early. If Disney gets their way, they kill theatres and also lose out on many revenue streams just by trying to keep all of it for themselves. It's more short term thinking.

 

Consumers eventually lose out because of the diversity of experiences and content available if the studios get their way and succeed in killing theatres. All for what? Oh and while we're at it, the Chinese box office is booming. This discussion is very West centric, and very privileged too. 

[BK007]

9 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

I don’t understand. What “incentive?” What “theaters playing ball?”   
 

Theaters play movies that studios allow them to play, or they literally go out of business. That’s the economic relationship there.

 

You do realize that the studios are already paying them so that they can release movies earlier?

 

It's not like the theatres said sure play day and date and we'll sit here and twiddle our thumbs.

 

Unless the studios want (and they do really want) to kill off that revenue stream completely, the theatres can just say no. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

just about every theatrical movie.

the most discussion on movie comes from how it is received + how it spread out.

 

In streaming almost entirety of spread is in first week. since there are no numbers to discuss there are no discussion other than quality which again are mostly in week of release.

 

With theatrical release, the people watching it are more spread out and the box office numbers create bulk of discussions, good or bad. 

[charlie Jatinder]

No spin here $81-82M weekend is awful. F9 was able to do $70M this only $81-82M. Blergh.

 

Disney+ PA need to be shut down ASAP.

[Rman823]

I completely get day and date releases during the pandemic, but the more it wanes, it just makes sense to go back to purely theatrical releases. Which I’m glad studios seem to be doing for now. I have an OLED TV and I’ll still choose to experience most movies in a theatrical environment. My TV is for second, third, fourth, etc. viewings.

 

I feel like a 45 day window is a perfect compromise. It allows that exclusivity while also allowing those who don’t want to go a shorter wait. All these streaming services need to focus on creating their own content that will help bring and keep subscribers. That’s one thing I love about Disney’s plan pre-pandemic. Using their popular brands to create exclusive content for both Disney + and theaters. 

Edited July 11, 2021 by Rman823

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No spin here $81-82M weekend is awful. F9 was able to do $70M this only $81-82M. Blergh.

 

Disney+ PA need to be shut down ASAP.

No.

[TigerPaw]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No spin here $81-82M weekend is awful. F9 was able to do $70M this only $81-82M. Blergh.

 

Disney+ PA need to be shut down ASAP.

If it goes below 80……

fingers crossed it won’t

[Rman823]

See, I wouldn't mind a smaller number if we actually had a somewhat accurate read on how it's doing on Disney +. My biggest gripe with PA and streaming releases in general is the lack of anything concrete on how these movies are performing. 

[Legion Again]

Maybe we should wait for Rth to drop by guys. I appreciate keyser but we should all know by know that mtc extrapolation comes with decent % error

Edited July 11, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Rman823 said:

See, I wouldn't mind a smaller number if we actually had a somewhat accurate read on how it's doing on Disney +. My biggest gripe with PA and streaming releases in general is the lack of anything concrete on how these movies are performing. 

If it wasn't on Disney+

1. It would have done better in OW and legs be better as well.

2. The markets that are having delayed release, China, India, whole of SEA, Peru, Chile, all of them being big MCU hub would have done good numbers when they release it in say August or September.

3. Physical home media numbers would have been better.

 

Now all it will do is probably 2M Disney+ PA buyouts WW for ~$60M, on cost of above 3.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If it wasn't on Disney+

1. It would have done better in OW and legs be better as well.

2. The markets that are having delayed release, China, India, whole of SEA, Peru, Chile, all of them being big MCU hub would have done good numbers when they release it in say August or September.

3. Physical home media numbers would have been better.

 

Now all it will do is probably 2M Disney+ PA buyouts WW for ~$60M, on cost of above 3.

2M seems like an incredible lowball.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Lokis Legion said:

2M seems like an incredible lowball.

Mulan revenue from Disney+ PA was reported around $90M by some trade portal from Disney insider.

 

Samba reported 1.1M 4 days purchases in USA, 90M would mean 3M worldwide, so about 2.7x their USA OW. I am willing to take same ratio for BW, let's see what they report for BW.

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

the most discussion on movie comes from how it is received + how it spread out.

 

In streaming almost entirety of spread is in first week. since there are no numbers to discuss there are no discussion other than quality which again are mostly in week of release.

 

With theatrical release, the people watching it are more spread out and the box office numbers create bulk of discussions, good or bad. 

 

re: streaming and theatrical release.

 

I'd like to make something of an analogy to binging and weekly release strategies.  

 

They have their plusses and minuses, but for every Stranger Things where something escapes into cultural zeitgeist, there are other The Dark Crystals which make a splash and then are soon forgotten.

 

Just how much of a cultural mark would The Mandalorian have made if it was all dumped at once?  How much of WandaVision's (or Loki's) success was built on the old-fashioned "talk around the water cooler about last night's episode"? Like, I just don't think Mando would have become "The Mando and Baby Yoda!!!" show if it wasn't for that long stretch of time where folks could talk, theorize, as well as look forward to what happens next.  Conversely, maybe if The Dark Crystal was weekly, it could have built a following that could be built on ala Ted Lasso.

 

I do realize that, duh, binging has its massive successes when it comes to cultural imprint.  But I do think being in the conversation for weeks at a time can help cement relevancy.  No guarantee, of course.  But then again, there are precious few of them in the entertainment biz.

[TigerPaw]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If it wasn't on Disney+

1. It would have done better in OW and legs be better as well.

2. The markets that are having delayed release, China, India, whole of SEA, Peru, Chile, all of them being big MCU hub would have done good numbers when they release it in say August or September.

3. Physical home media numbers would have been better.

 

Now all it will do is probably 2M Disney+ PA buyouts WW for ~$60M, on cost of above 3.

Heard D+ Japan had an apology tweet as there were lots of issues with PA there - network was down, people paid and couldn’t watch etc.

I mean there is some good here, and that is that probably the demand from PA was higher than Disney+ Infrastructure there could support.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

-snip-

weekly drop aka spreading out the talk/buzz of show is ofc a better thing for show.

 

Just that you can't do that for movies.

[SpiderByte]

Only on BOT can a 70 million OW be a hit and an 80+ million OW be a flop.

Edited July 11, 2021 by SpiderByte

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

Only on BOT can a 70 million OW be a hit and an 80+ million OW be a flop.

Pretty sure 200M OW for Endgame would have created meltdowns no one would have foreseen.

[Legion Again]

52 minutes ago, Zatt was right said:

Hawkeye and Ms. Marvel comes out this year as well?! WTF!?

Yeah, 4 movies 6 shows.   
 

Next year probably 4 movies 6 shows 1 holiday special. Year after 5 movies and I assume 6+ shows. Expect that’s the new normal.

[eddyxx]

12 hours ago, Valonqar said:

This is far from disappointment. Pandemic, hybrid, side-quest with the dead character. All things considered, it's a pretty fantastic opening weekend number. 

Yeah it’s pretty amazing marvel made this much off a character everyone knows is dead. Marvel can not make a flop.

[Ryan Reynolds]

BW under Lucy Worldwide ?