BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Cap]

18 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

You know, at least you're a real one for giving us a GIF of the sexiest Chris. And for that I propose a compromise: I take charge on introducing all epic weekend threads from now until...November 4, 2021, a date I completely pulled at random and was not chosen because you would kill me if I made a weekend thread on that date.

That was already the plan, Stan.  So I like the way you think.

[Webslinger]

My local theaters didn't do Thursday previews for Black Widow, even after doing them for F9 two weeks ago. Grumble, grumble, grumble. (For reference: even pre-pandemic, they basically only did them for new Avengers and Star Wars movies.)

 

Honestly, finally getting a new MCU flick feels like a big step back toward normal moviegoing, and I am so freaking here for it.

[filmlover]

The theater I'm seeing it at tomorrow night was really busy looking at sales. Gonna be mighty surprised if the preview number is below $10M.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The theater I'm seeing it at tomorrow night was really busy looking at sales. Gonna be mighty surprised if the preview number is below $10M.

 

So would all the trackers in the tracking thread:)...

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The theater I'm seeing it at tomorrow night was really busy looking at sales. Gonna be mighty surprised if the preview number is below $10M.

 

FWIW, I did an average of all of the final estimates/comps/adjustments in the tracking thread, and it currently comes out to 14.1m. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So would all the trackers in the tracking thread:)...

 

If that somehow happened, this would be pretty much the collective Tracking thread:

 

[Madhuvan]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

FWIW, I did an average of all of the final estimates/comps/adjustments in the tracking thread, and it currently comes out to 14.1m. 

14.1 would lead to OW around 85m. Hmmm

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Madhuvan said:

14.1 would lead to OW around 85m. Hmmm

Actually I could see it getting to 94 from 14. 

[keysersoze123]

My guess

Previews - 13.5m
Friday - 28m

Saturday - 27m(small drop like F9. Premium access hits family more than anything else)

Sunday - 22m (Strong summer sunday but not enough sellouts for crazy sunday holds we have seen pre-covid). 

OW - 90.5m OW 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Marvel generally should have a better Fri-Sat trend than Furious. But it is true that Sat bump will probably be the most affected by PA. Wonder which of those two factors wins out. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Menor said:

Marvel generally should have a better Fri-Sat trend than Furious. But it is true that Sat bump will probably be the most affected by PA. Wonder which of those two factors wins out. 

 

On the other hand, it might not be so much PA as 5pm previews burning off demand versus 7pm previews that F9 had.  Won't be as bad as 4pm previews, but I would think it's pretty likely that theaters were able to squeeze in more showtimes at desirable hours than F9 was able to do.  That might not affect the Fri-Sat hold, but it might affect the actual Fri number.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

On the other hand, it might not be so much PA as 5pm previews burning off demand versus 7pm previews that F9 had.  Won't be as bad as 4pm previews, but I would think it's pretty likely that theaters were able to squeeze in more showtimes at desirable hours than F9 was able to do.  That might not affect the Fri-Sat hold, but it might affect the actual Fri number.

It will definitely put it below "normal" -- but given that we have no good comps for BW, not sure what normal actually is.

[Ronin46]

Box Office Pro   $93M    https://t.co/0vjASTu2mc?amp=1

 

Box Office Report $89M             https://t.co/QVOV2hf91M?amp=1

 

Opening weekend Black Widow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Would love a $100M OW but doesn't seem likely. Still nothing to scoff at with a O/U $90M OW and July MCU films usually has long legs though with PA and covid times who knows.

[Fullbuster]

27 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Box Office Pro   $93M    https://t.co/0vjASTu2mc?amp=1

 

Box Office Report $89M             https://t.co/QVOV2hf91M?amp=1

 

Opening weekend Black Widow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That'd great, in Covid times + Premiere Access it'd be a strong start.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Fullbuster

[poweranimals]

What time do we usually get the Thursday numbers?

[Legion Again]

Movie was nice. Prefer that and 90 to a meh movie and 100.   

 

Still some hope though, like a 5-10% tracking miss in the right direction or a nice true Fri would keep 100 in play.

[Cap]

I think my big issue with 100 million Is repeat viewing. The MCU has crazy fans, and they will go see the movie multiple times on opening weekend. I know this from personal experience. But with Covid, and with Premiere Access, how many people are going to go back to see it again? The friend that I saw it with today basically said the same. He said that he was going to see it once at the movie theater, and then maybe pay to watch it at home on Disney+.  
 

And to be honest, that’s gonna be the difference between and incredibly solid number, and something truly spectacular.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Cap said:

I think my big issue with 100 million Is repeat viewing. The MCU has crazy fans, and they will go see the movie multiple times on opening weekend. I know this from personal experience. But with Covid, and with Premiere Access, how many people are going to go back to see it again? The friend that I saw it with today basically said the same. He said that he was going to see it once at the movie theater, and then maybe pay to watch it at home on Disney+.  
 

And to be honest, that’s gonna be the difference between and incredibly solid number, and something truly spectacular.

I’m going to see this the same number of times in theaters as I would without D+ (2-3) and not pay for PA. Two more tickets from here is like $25 or something, it’s still cheaper and for a superior experience. If PA was 18 or something that would be a world of difference.

[Madhuvan]

By the way many people are loving this movie on twitter, theatre experience is also helping a lot. People are excited.

I am expecting A cinemascore.