BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

This. Thank you.

 

Giving people a choice... yes.

 

Don't freaking blame PA and D+ for everything...

For example, Iron Man has been on streaming or home media exclusively for 13 years and counting. Nobody think that this exclusive window is too long but when Cinema ask for 45-60 days, suddenly people realised it is too long to wait. And you still think that we are being bias against streaming and not giving consumer an option when streaming got that whole exclusivity for its own indefinitely?   

[Legion Again]

Wait -- I forgot.

 

This is all McGregor vs Poirier's fault.    

 

Okay, all is forgiven.

[john2000]

if i remember correctly , the expectation was that if black widow were to have 100 mill ow , it would need 17 mill previews or so in other words  the multi would be  in the neighborhood of  6 , with 6 multi from 13,2 previews we get 80 mill ow, so  after thinking about it why should we be that surpised ? ....... in any case dissapointing result to an extent but a very decent ow , however i still believe that a mirarcle can happen and sat number to be bigger than 23-24 ..fool me i know 😛😛  

 

 

ps deadline yesterday  sat am update, was seeing 28 mill sat  , probably not going to happen but hey i am open to it

Edited July 11, 2021 by john2000

[titanic2187]

Just now, Lokis Legion said:

Wait -- I forgot.

 

This is all McGregor vs Poirier's fault.    

 

Okay, all is forgiven.

His ankle literally FLOP

[TigerPaw]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

For example, Iron Man has been on streaming or home media exclusively for 13 years and counting. Nobody think that this exclusive window is too long but when Cinema ask for 45-60 days, suddenly people realised it is too long to wait. And you still think that we are being bias against streaming and not giving consumer an option when streaming got that whole exclusivity for its own indefinitely?   

What I am saying is that Exclusivity should it be by contract or by people's choice?

 

BW is not exclusively on streaming.. People domestically at least.. have the choice to watch it in theaters; same as the many titles on HBO max this year. 

If Endgame, Avatar, Titantic or The Dark Knight rescreen on cinemas today, there will still be a decent money to be made even though they have been on digital / streaming for years..

 

There are films where people know the experience in cinemas will be / is different - even if they catch it the first time via streaming.

 

But there are also films that you know the difference is not that much whether you watch it on the big screen or not. I.e - I think PA impact on Endgame will be substantially less than BW. 

I.e. when i came out of Endgame, i knew i had to watch it again in theaters. Titantic was not original released in China; people mostly pirated it but when it was release in China decades later - people knew that this is best enjoyed on the big screen.

 

My honest opinion - When I came out of BW; i don't see a need to go into a theater to watch it a 2nd time.. PA / streaming is good enough. 

[4815162342]

16 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I really hope they don't delay Matrix 4. Movie is already in the can and it would be a big boost for John Wick next year. Holiday season needs a non-superhero blockbuster.

 

My skepticism for Matrix 4 is high, but unless it gets terrible reviews it's probably the automatic Christmas Day movie for the family

[Daxtreme]

lol all the doom and gloom.

 

My friends these days watch their movies by having one of them stream their browser on Discord. That's it. None of them even bothered to go to the theater to se the movie, I did because I wanted the theater experience with my brother.

 

This is a good number. Anytime now you can open Disney+ and watch the movie, and yet it still opened to $80M in theaters. I think it's great!

 

And that's without mentioning pirating which also has an effect. Usually movies aren't available online in crystal-clear 1080p when it comes out in theaters. Sure it looks low a bit but that's on Disney for not releasing PA numbers. If they did, I think the narrative around here would be a lot different...

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

What I am saying is that Exclusivity should it be by contract or by people's choice?

 

BW is not exclusively on streaming.. People domestically at least.. have the choice to watch it in theaters; same as the many titles on HBO max this year. 

If Endgame, Avatar, Titantic or The Dark Knight rescreen on cinemas today, there will still be a decent money to be made even though they have been on digital / streaming for years..

 

There are films where people know the experience in cinemas will be / is different - even if they catch it the first time via streaming.

 

But there are also films that you know the difference is not that much whether you watch it on the big screen or not. I.e - I think PA impact on Endgame will be substantially less than BW. 

I.e. when i came out of Endgame, i knew i had to watch it again in theaters. Titantic was not original released in China; people mostly pirated it but when it was release in China decades later - people knew that this is best enjoyed on the big screen.

 

My honest opinion - When I came out of BW; i don't see a need to go into a theater to watch it a 2nd time.. PA / streaming is good enough. 

Not sure if you understand my point since your replies is almost irrelevant. 

 

Anyway, I am not against streaming, especially during pandemic, it is understandable move. But I am mostly referring to the post-pandemic world. And why can't people who want to stream it, wait for 45-60days since that segment of consumer group basically own that window exclusively for the rest of their lives. 

 

Also, the bold statement is wrong. 

 

 

[john2000]

 

 

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

Congratulations to A Quiet Place 2 on being the first film of the pandemic to pass $150m, fully deserved. What a great run. And it’s a horror film! Win. 

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

My friends these days watch their movies by having one of them stream their browser on Discord. That's it. None of them even bothered to go to the theater to se the movie, I did because I wanted the theater experience with my brother.

This is something I occasionally do with my friends. We watched Boss Baby 2 this way last weekend lmao.

[Legion Again]

I am concerned that maybe not everyone realizes I’m doing a bit, so I will make 1 (one) serious post about the BW numbers.  
 

Spoiler

First off, yes, the domestic box office numbers are disappointing. They are also, frankly, a little “crumbling” — estimates keep coming down over time because the internal behavior is extremely frontloaded. The OS box office numbers are a little disappointing as well.  
 

But, of course, this is the first (and planned only) MCU release with a 0-day window. A lot of the money it’s making this weekend is not at the box office at all, and simply opaque to us. I rather suspect that it is doing 3x Cruella’s PA business or more, for a very tidy degree of ticket-equivalent-revenue.    
 

Beating F9’s true FSS by some single digits % is very blah, but it’s hard to say how things would shake out if they had the same release model. I personally suspect that a theatrically exclusive BW would have done over 100M here, but a lot of people were able to see it in this world who wouldn’t in that one, so doing 80M instead is an okay trade from a fan perspective and not necessarily bad from a Disney $$ one.  
 

It is NOT a flop, which is a technical term. Even if this goes to like 200 DOM, 200 OS from this weekend’s markets, 50M from rest, suspect it will have a fine ROI.

 

[lorddemaxus]

Honestly, I do wonder how much of a difference PA makes in terms of home video business. I feel like it's just going to accelerate  the speed at which they start getting home video revenue (and skews it more towards D+ than 3rd party stores and physical) rather than actually increase the amount of money they get there. 

Edited July 11, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Honestly, I do wonder how much of a difference PA makes in terms of home video business. I feel like it's just going to accelerate  the speed at which they start getting home video revenue rather than actually increase the amount of money they get there. 

I feel like normal D+ kills home video in favor of subscription revenue. Then PA is an attempt to get the home video revenue back while still keeping subscription, at the cost of some theatrical rev.

[TwoMisfits]

58 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Think this will fall under 200m

 

With the way this opened and with the reception, I agree with you...

 

It would be wild if the 150M club was actually in play...I don't think it will be that bad with this open, but we are in uncharted territory with the type of release...

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah, good numbers but the general feeling is disappointing. Not because the numbers are bad, but because it keeps falling at every update.

 

I think there are some reasons for this. PA of course, but the movie itself was one of the most harmed by pandemic, the marketing campaign for this was almost ending when the pandemic started, and then comes the inumerous delays, another marketing campaign etc. I feel this movie already get out feeling old, i would't think this could damage but maybe some people lost some interest after so much wait and are fine watching at home. 

 

For people who cares about box office, it's disappoing, but i have a feeling that Disney probably will not regret.

 

Honestly, if BW opens with 80M on theaters + 50M on Disney Plus (which seems VERY low), it will be better for them than if the movie was theatrical exclusive and opened with 150M. So yeah, despite being sad for us, for them i bet it's financially better this way.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

With the way this opened and with the reception, I agree with you...

 

It would be wild if the 150M club was actually in play...I don't think it will be that bad with this open, but we are in uncharted territory with the type of release...

We're not really.

 

Raya and Cruella have both great legs. Of course BW is different in scale but still, if it manage to get only 2x multiplier or less the problem is the movie.

 

I think it will have the average Marvel multiplier, 2.6-2.7x, anything worst and for me it's bad WOM.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

With the way this opened and with the reception, I agree with you...

 

It would be wild if the 150M club was actually in play...I don't think it will be that bad with this open, but we are in uncharted territory with the type of release...

i personally doubt that it will fall below 200 mill reception seems to be at worst ant man 2 , that movie had 2,86 multi without pa  though , however while not every movie is the same, cruella has incredible legs and godzillavskong had a very normal multi even though it was for free on hbo max, anyways we shall see ,hopefully 200 mill happens

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Think this will fall under 200m

I still think this can pass 200m thanks to summer middays, it is time for BB4L to step down.  

[wildphantom]

38 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

What I am saying is that Exclusivity should it be by contract or by people's choice?

 

BW is not exclusively on streaming.. People domestically at least.. have the choice to watch it in theaters; same as the many titles on HBO max this year. 

If Endgame, Avatar, Titantic or The Dark Knight rescreen on cinemas today, there will still be a decent money to be made even though they have been on digital / streaming for years..

 

There are films where people know the experience in cinemas will be / is different - even if they catch it the first time via streaming.

 

But there are also films that you know the difference is not that much whether you watch it on the big screen or not. I.e - I think PA impact on Endgame will be substantially less than BW. 

I.e. when i came out of Endgame, i knew i had to watch it again in theaters. Titantic was not original released in China; people mostly pirated it but when it was release in China decades later - people knew that this is best enjoyed on the big screen.

 

My honest opinion - When I came out of BW; i don't see a need to go into a theater to watch it a 2nd time.. PA / streaming is good enough. 

what you’re missing is that even though you’d have seen Endgame again in theaters, many wouldn’t have even turned up for one showing if it was at home for free. 
 

There is nothing more I can say on the matter. Putting any movie online for free in perfect quality the world over has the biggest impact imaginable on a film’s box office performance. 
 

Exclusivity to theaters brings money to the box office. Without that exclusivity we really are in the endgame long term.