BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[charlie Jatinder]

Disney should have released BW in India at a genuine ₹200-250 fee. Feel so bad having a discounted Disney+. They are basically pushing people toward piracy.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Cap said:

I think my big issue with 100 million Is repeat viewing. The MCU has crazy fans, and they will go see the movie multiple times on opening weekend. I know this from personal experience. But with Covid, and with Premiere Access, how many people are going to go back to see it again? The friend that I saw it with today basically said the same. He said that he was going to see it once at the movie theater, and then maybe pay to watch it at home on Disney+.  
 

And to be honest, that’s gonna be the difference between and incredibly solid number, and something truly spectacular.

 

I think your point about being able to stop the movie to discuss it/analyze it/whatever is a good one, as well.

 

It's not gonna stop the diehards.  Hell, they'll probably double up.  But Marvel's astronomical success is not built on diehards alone.  It can't be; it's simply too huge.

 

There is going to be some percentage of folks who will take convenience factor over crowd experience.  Especially if they'd rather throw a house party.  Maybe if PWPs were still a major factor, they could just go that route.  But from my scanning of my local market, the heyday of PWPs has lessened dramatically.

 

(also the folks still worried about the 'rona; they're out there whether they should feel that way or not)

 

In my mind the real question isn't if some folks who would have bought an OW ticket instead pop for PA. Some absolutely will, like your friend you noted.  No, the real question is... will that seat be replaced by someone who would have waited until MTWth/second weekend, but sees a good seat unexpectedly available.

 

Then there is the repeat factor, again mentioned by your friend.  Go once for the crowd experience/big screen; stay at home to indulge in all your fav scenes.  That's still a second or third purchased ticket lost.

 

No real way of knowing until the numbers come in, but there's plausible theories in both directions.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

51 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

What time do we usually get the Thursday numbers?

 

Deadline occasionally, and I do mean occasionally, has "sources" that allows them to throw up a wild ass guess super early estimate starting around 6pm Pacific time.  Most of the time, however, sometime early Friday. 

 

If you don't see an Early Deadline Estimate by 12:30am Pacific, then it ain't coming until the morning.

[ThomasNicole]

Expecting around 14M previews and 92-94M OW.

 

I really don't see why to expect a multiplier close to AM&TW, that movie have a worst date because it was too close to the holiday. And also i feel Ant Man franchise is by far the one that people are least interested in watch.

 

6.5-6.8x previews sounds about right for BW.

 

I'm sure Premiere Access are probably the only reason we won't get 100M OW, but i'm fine with that. It's still very big (especially considering this movie lost a lot of timing), a record, and it will be the first +200M movie since the pandemic, maybe even 250M, so it's hard to complain.

 

And also, considering how bad things are foreign, i think giving another option for viewers are reasonable. Here in Brazil it's chaotic, it seems like South Korea, Japan, Australia, UK etc are also having some problems. I'm only gonna see the movie for example because of PA so i think it's fair even if it will hurt the box office in some degree.

 

[Jamiem]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Disney should have released BW in India at a genuine ₹200-250 fee. Feel so bad having a discounted Disney+. They are basically pushing people toward piracy.

Agree 100%, it is also the same with the other Hotstar countries I believe, they already have cheaper pricing in LATAM so it's not like they have to keep it around the same price globally. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Jamiem

[Cap]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think your point about being able to stop the movie to discuss it/analyze it/whatever is a good one, as well.

 

Oh I think of something like Episode 5 of Loki. If I did not have the ability to stop and look for every single Easter egg, I would’ve been at that theater five times to watch that episode.

Though I don’t think Widow had any HOLYSHIT moment that was like “I need to see this again ASAP. It’s a very solid spy action movie. And I think it will do very well with the general audience. But there wasn’t exactly a Steve lifting Mjlonir moment to make me run back tomorrow. 

When I see it again will totally depend on when Mom wants to go. 

 

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

  No, the real question is... will that seat be replaced by someone who would have waited until MTWth/second weekend, but sees a good seat unexpectedly available.

 

Oooh yes. Yes. VERY good point. 
 

I speak from personal experience that I definitely am that person. If there are not good seats, I’m waiting to go see it

 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Agree 100%, it is also the same with the other Hotstar countries I believe, they already have cheaper pricing in LATAM so it's not like they have to keep it around the same price globally. 

I am sure atleast 100-200k would have watched. Now all of them are gonna watch in free anyway. 

[charlie Jatinder]

From our data, 14M previews, best case scenario being 15M. Weekend 89-96M. You know what that mean.

If it open at $96M, well you can assume that real value is $100M with Ontario and Manitoba closed.

 

The actual real value with no Disney PA may be $125M+.

Edited July 9, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Liiviig 1998]

53 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

By the way many people are loving this movie on twitter, theatre experience is also helping a lot. People are excited.

I am expecting A cinemascore. 

Ant-man and the wasp was the last not to get an A had an A- .  Most mcu films get an A or above

. 

So an A won't really supprise me tbh. Marvel is very  general audience friendly.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Liiviig 1998

[eddyxx]

9 hours ago, Menor said:

I find it hard to see it only hitting 75 million unless something really crazy happens. 

Isn’t there a hurricane on the east coast?

[Noctis]

If F9 was able to open to 70m, Black Widow should have no issue hitting at the very least 85m. 

[RRA]

2 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

14.1 would lead to OW around 85m. Hmmm

Which would mean I was completely spot on. 😆

[RRA]

14 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Isn’t there a hurricane on the east coast?

Shane Helms trying to keep people from theaters?

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Cap said:

I think my big issue with 100 million Is repeat viewing.

 

I said this earlier too. 

6 minutes ago, Noctis said:

If F9 was able to open to 70m, Black Widow should have no issue hitting at the very least 85m. 

F9 wasn’t available to watch at home. 
 

So it’s looking at around $85m. A win. 

[Cap]

41 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Isn’t there a hurricane on the east coast?

It’s less than a hurricane up where I am, and more severe rain. We did have to cancel our IMAX tickets because I was not driving to Boston in thunder. But I got tickets for the local theater, and it was packed.

[Valonqar]

nvm.

 

Finally an exciting watch. Seeing this soon. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Valonqar

[john2000]

we should get thursday numbers tonight right ?

[Krissykins]

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

we should get thursday numbers tonight right ?

Yes, probably in about 4-5 hours 

[grey ghost]

Imo there are only a handful of MCU movies that relied on repeat viewings: Iron Man, Guardians,  Winter Soldier, Avengers, Black Panther, Infinity War and Endgame.

 

But for the average MCU movie people only go once.

 

However, this is anecdotal. 

[grey ghost]

Speaking of Winter Soldier for BW to come close to WS' opening weekend during a pandemic with a hybrid release just shows that Marvel Studios is still in a much better position than it was during phase 2.

 

But obviously the MCU hiatus and blue balls were a factor too.

 

Things might return to normal with Shang-Chi and Eternals with ~70m OW for the B-list heroes.