BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, Blankments said:

I legitimately think that the bragging about premiere access actively makes the weekend look worse lol; like if it had done 80m, I would’ve been like “that’s solid considering everything”, but hearing that it only made 60m ww from streaming makes me look at this as a clearly disappointing box office opening haha

 

im Glad Disney is being more transparent; doesn’t change the fact that these numbers look worse when we’re given the full picture 

exactly right. 
what adding the figure in is doing is having analysts go ‘wait, only 2 million people bought it on PA?’  It will be seen as piracy having been a colossal dent in the movie’s potential. 

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Hey now, Cate Shortland is cool don’t go after her. Go after the Bobs.

 

Not going after her but her name is too tempting and you gotta admit gives a catchy headline much catchier than the usual wordplay. 

[SpiderByte]

People are freaking out about this more than In The Heights which barely scraped above 10.

 

The tracking range was 80-100. This is well within that.

Edited July 11, 2021 by SpiderByte

[Jamiem]

45 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I remember @Jamiem sharing it. IIRC it was Deadline article.

Most recent thing I can find is me sharing the old Nielsen numbers here

 

 

Will update if I find something with a concrete leak of 3m buys ($90m) number, I vaguely remember it but may have just been a guesstimate from somewhere. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

People are freaking out about this more than In The Heights which barely scraped above 10.

 

Oh no, folks freaked out that weekend...no one was saying that weekend wasn't a tragic open b/c it was...and I'm a WB fan (although even though I wanted to like the movie, I wasn't a huge fan of it)...

[filmlover]

Just now, SpiderByte said:

People are freaking out about this more than In The Heights which barely scraped above 10.

Eh, it's mainly the surprise that Disney actually released their D+ numbers. The shock floppage of In the Heights was more of the "yikes" variety.

[Mr Terrific]

Will Shang-Chi be a PA movie?

Does Disney announcing PA money for BW suggest that is more likely or less likely?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Mr Terrific said:

Will Shang-Chi be a PA movie?

Does Disney announcing PA money for BW suggest that is more likely or less likely?

It's already supposed to be available on streaming 45 days after it opens in theaters only so we'll see if they decide to walk back on that decision.

[keysersoze123]

WOW at 60m PA. That is equivalent to 120m+ in BO. This hybrid model has been insanely successful. We could see it continue going forward :-(

 

On BO, 80m is phenomenal considering the PA number. fans still came in but families obviously preferred to watch on their tv screens. I wish it was slightly less of a success :-)

[Cap]

34 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Fully expecting Disney will announce their remaining 2021 movies after the also-PA-bound Jungle Cruise (Shang-Chi, Eternals, Encanto) will be also doing the simultaneous release method.

The only real thing preventing it is how they response to the DGA Eligibility. Disney has never really been that big about awards, so I could see them saying we don’t care. But I could also see them holding the PA a week to get around that rule. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I will say it a success when I see the degree of drop of Home Media numbers from Captain Marvel.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will say it a success when I see the degree of drop of Home Media numbers from Captain Marvel.

you are talking about premier access ?

[Mr Terrific]

Maybe Shang-Chi stays theater exclusive so the numbers don’t look even worse relative to BW. 
Will have Disney have any ego about wanting to avoid SC only doing $50-60m on OW?

[RamblinRed]

People are not really doing an apple to apple comparison with the PA number.

Yes, $60M means 2M subscriptions were paid for, but that hardly means only 2M people watched it on PA. It is more realistic to think that the number that watched it on PA is at least 3-4 times that 2M number. My family of 3 will be watching it on PA when we get some free time. 

 

i expect that if you wanted to relate it back to the theaters it would translate to an extra 6-8M tickets sold. 

 

It also shows that no matter what we want to think we are not past the pandemic,, and likely won't be for some time yet. Maybe not until 2022. Most countries have much lower vaccination rates than the US (heck Japan isn't allowing any spectators at the Olympics). Until the world catches up to at least where the US is, the full Theater market will not fully recover.

 

Given the current environment I think the numbers are actually pretty solid. It will be interestig to see how Disney reacts to these numbers. That will tell us more about how sucessful they think the opening is.

 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will say it a success when I see the degree of drop of Home Media numbers from Captain Marvel.

of course its a rental and so they could still buy it again. But if you are subscribed to Disney+ why bother unless you looking for additional content. HV sales have cratered last decade itself. Peak was mid 2000's when Finding Nemo/Pirates of the Caribbean all did phenomenally well on HV.  

[Krissykins]

44 minutes ago, John Marston said:

With BW likely struggling to reach 200m imagine how bad The Suicide Squad will do 

That’s available at home for no extra cost. Should be looking at Shang Chi and Eternals instead, which both have to beat BW’s $80m opening because they’re cinema only. 

30 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Damn that’s a really shit multiplier. Worried about 200M now

Summer weekdays could help. 

17 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

People are freaking out about this more than In The Heights which barely scraped above 10.

 

The tracking range was 80-100. This is well within that.

It was $75-85m officially. 

[wildphantom]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

WOW at 60m PA. That is equivalent to 120m+ in BO. This hybrid model has been insanely successful. We could see it continue going forward 😞

 

On BO, 80m is phenomenal considering the PA number. fans still came in but families obviously preferred to watch on their tv screens. I wish it was slightly less of a success 🙂

Sure. I’d look at it more like 2 million people and what would have been $20 million’s worth of box office had they bought tickets. 
It’s not many people at all, which indicates many, many more millions simply watched it for free.  Disney will care about this. 

[Blaze Heatnix]

So, in a nutshell:

 

 

1) Good number ( when you ignore context )

 

2) Bad number ( if you add context, given the movie has a bad multiplier for its opening day )

 

3) I'm torn on PA numbers. Maybe they wanted to inflate numbers or send a message that PA is also doing its part.

 

4) Many people probably aren't excited to see a solo movie for a character that's already dead.

 

5) Pandemic is far from over.

 

 

 

Overall, perhaps everyone could be right in the discussion. Number is good and bad depending on perspective.

 

I'm glad people are coming back to the cinema. It's really good.

[CrashBandicoot81]

I think that we'll just have to deal with a big chunk of people preferring to stay at home to watch a film rather than go to the a movie theater. Pre-Pandemic levels won't be happening for a long time if ever.

 

Streaming like HBO Max, Netflix and Disney Plus are going on for the long term.

Edited July 11, 2021 by CrashBandicoot81

[TigerPaw]

3 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

Maybe Shang-Chi stays theater exclusive so the numbers don’t look even worse relative to BW. 
Will have Disney have any ego about wanting to avoid SC only doing $50-60m on OW?

I mean since their 45 days exclusive announcement, some things have changed:

1) The spread of Delta variant - not sure by Mid-August / Early Sept how many countries will be impacted or see some form of restriction / lockdown

2) BW released on D+; which allows them to collect very relevant and important data. And if they truly believe the numbers are positive here.. this might push them to move SC to be a hybrid release too.

 

Depends on their expectations of Shang Chi, if their expectations is low- they can always use PA to spin it into a success story.