BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Jamiem]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will say it a success when I see the degree of drop of Home Media numbers from Captain Marvel.

Projected $156m for Global Home Entertainment according to Deadline as of April last year, Black Widow will get physical and digital in other stores as well but no way box office is getting close to Captain Marvel.

 

source: https://deadline.com/2020/04/captain-marvel-movie-profits-2019-marvel-avengers-endgame-1202916060/#!

[Fullbuster]

Disney gave PA numbers??

 

$60m in 3 days is very impressive for PA, even more so for Disney as they keep all the money! It was definitely worth it for them, they might get more than $100m from it in the end.

 

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by Fullbuster

[SpiderByte]

How is it a bad number taking into account context? The context is that no movie has gotten 80 in a year and a half.

Edited July 11, 2021 by SpiderByte

[Cmasterclay]

How some of the takes on this board feel sometimes:

 

[exomassey]

Honestly I’m surprised it did this well considering the character is dead.

 

I don’t think it will have great legs but again we have to factor in that you can get a HD copy of this movie anywhere online. Also without a Chinese release, the box office total is definitely going to look worse.

 

Godzilla v Kong (I know it was at a worse stage of the pandemic) and F9 without China in the box office totals, don’t look that great.

 

In my opinion Godzilla v Kong would have grossed over 1 billion, the reaction to that trailer was insane.

[bobdysm]

28 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Most recent thing I can find is me sharing the old Nielsen numbers here

 

 

Will update if I find something with a concrete leak of 3m buys ($90m) number, I vaguely remember it but may have just been a guesstimate from somewhere. 

 

It's from an article in the Information.

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

So, in a nutshell:

 

 

1) Good number ( when you ignore context )

 

2) Bad number ( if you add context, given the movie has a bad multiplier for its opening day )

 

3) I'm torn on PA numbers. Maybe they wanted to inflate numbers or send a message that PA is also doing its part.

 

4) Many people probably aren't excited to see a solo movie for a character that's already dead.

 

5) Pandemic is far from over.

 

 

 

Overall, perhaps everyone could be right in the discussion. Number is good and bad depending on perspective.

 

I'm glad people are coming back to the cinema. It's really good.

 

Number is definitely good in any context IMO. The movie was essentially a thank-you to Scarlett who won't be in MCU anymore and a thank-you to part of fandom that wanted a solo movie. It was made with (somewhat) limited audience appeal in mind. So 80M opening for something that's really not essential, and is a filler if you will, is fantastic.  However, by releasing PA number which they usually don't do, they made the number look worse cause that created the feel that they are trying to make it bigger as in "we are not happy with it". I know that they announced that they expected 75M but Disney always lowballs so that they could report exceeded expectations. They can't do that off just 5M more. 

 

I think that adding PA was more to close the gap created by lack of China. If China accepted the release than they would've had over 200M worldwide without PA bump. And it looks like they really wanted Over 200M headline. 

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Disney gave PA numbers??

 

$60m in 3 days is very impressive for PA, even more so for Disney as they keep all the money! It was definitely worth it for them, they might get more than $100m from it in the end.

 

 

The $60M is just for Friday and Saturday I think (and also apparently how much it made across D+ worldwide).

[Fullbuster]

47 minutes ago, Blankments said:

I legitimately think that the bragging about premiere access actively makes the weekend look worse lol; like if it had done 80m, I would’ve been like “that’s solid considering everything”, but hearing that it only made 60m ww from streaming makes me look at this as a clearly disappointing box office opening haha

 

im Glad Disney is being more transparent; doesn’t change the fact that these numbers look worse when we’re given the full picture 

 

This forum went from "who wants to pay $30 for PA?" to "Only 2 million paid for PA in 3 days"

 

Make up your mind people!

I know many of you will twist facts as much as they can in order for them to fit your views but it's starting to be visible, be coherent guys ^^"

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The $60M is just for Friday and Saturday I think (and also apparently how much it made across D+ worldwide).

I keep seeing people say that here and I'm confused as to why. Wouldn't this be a 3-day estimate like with the theatrical OW?

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Eric Belov said:

I keep seeing people say that here and I'm confused as to why. Wouldn't this be a 3-day estimate like with the theatrical OW?

That's what I got. There's nothing in the article which suggests it's just 2 days worth.

[Fullbuster]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The $60M is just for Friday and Saturday I think (and also apparently how much it made across D+ worldwide).

 

Which is even better!  By the way, it's nice to talk about the absence of China but $60m is what Disney would get from China with a gross of $240m OW so PA is like they added one China to their market so it's really good!

[Valonqar]

This tread title is spot on. 

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

People are not really doing an apple to apple comparison with the PA number.

Yes, $60M means 2M subscriptions were paid for, but that hardly means only 2M people watched it on PA. It is more realistic to think that the number that watched it on PA is at least 3-4 times that 2M number. My family of 3 will be watching it on PA when we get some free time. 

 

i expect that if you wanted to relate it back to the theaters it would translate to an extra 6-8M tickets sold. 

 

It also shows that no matter what we want to think we are not past the pandemic,, and likely won't be for some time yet. Maybe not until 2022. Most countries have much lower vaccination rates than the US (heck Japan isn't allowing any spectators at the Olympics). Until the world catches up to at least where the US is, the full Theater market will not fully recover.

 

Given the current environment I think the numbers are actually pretty solid. It will be interestig to see how Disney reacts to these numbers. That will tell us more about how sucessful they think the opening is.

 

Exactly. People talk about how it's only 2 million who pay PA but that's enough people to make the OW jump to over +100M and everyone would be here calling a phenomenal performance, even if would be way less profitable for the studio than the way it is.

 

2 million people paying 30 dollars to watch a movie at home in 2-2.5 days would never be bad.

 

Yeah, the piracy is a factor, but it's not like everyone who watch it for free would pay for a ticket anyway if it's the only option, majority will wait and that's it.

 

Economy is bad, there's still an ongoing pandemic, and honestly, there are people who prefer to watch movies at home and we have to accept it.

 

I find the way the BO numbers keep falling disappointing, but that's it. The numbers are good, last year we're talking about a potential death of theaters and now $ 160M OW on a pandemic and day&date release are being discussed as potencially bad, it doesn't make sense.

 

I'm ultimatelly happy that we have another successful movie helping theaters to survive until things become normal again. 

 

I hope the PA really ends after Jungle Cruise and everything go well for theaters and box office because i love theaters, but with Delta Variant sprending quickly maybe they will have to keep doing this for a little more time, and i also don't care because i prefer to pay and watch safely than go in a theater facing risks. Even with BW i only watch it because of PA since things here are terrible, they're not wrong doing this considering the times, especially if it's bringing good numbers for both theaters and Disney (and it is, they wouldn't drop PA numbers if they're bad, that's a fact).

[wildphantom]

Gitesh suggesting in his tweet the $60 million was just US? 
 

Nobody really knows the truth. If Disney are going to throw that figure out there I’d like them to be clear as to how that breaks down. 

[filmlover]

Just now, Eric Belov said:

I keep seeing people say that here and I'm confused as to why. Wouldn't this be a 3-day estimate like with the theatrical OW?

I'm just confused as to how that works lol. Given that it's been available to preorder for a few weeks (and it becoming available to those who did the minute it was uploaded early Friday), I'm gonna assume most of that money was made early.

[expensiveho]

I see people are having a hard time adjusting to the new reality. 

[filmlover]

Just now, wildphantom said:

Gitesh suggesting in his tweet the $60 million was just US? 
 

Nobody really knows the truth. If Disney are going to throw that figure out there I’d like them to be clear as to how that breaks down. 

They won't. They'll just leave everyone guessing and to anyone who asks questions their answer will be:

 

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

I keep seeing people say that here and I'm confused as to why. Wouldn't this be a 3-day estimate like with the theatrical OW?

I don't think so.

 

Pay downloads are way more instable than tickets, especially because for doing estimates for box office they have presales helping.

 

For downloads they don't have this data, and given the instability of these platforms they probably drop what they already have gross officially, especially because downloads are counted instantly.

 

Even on their statement they say the movie generate 60M on Disney+, it looks like official numbers to me more than estimates.

[exomassey]

If I knew someone who paid 30 for Black Widow on Disney plus, I would use their account to watch it cause I’m not paying that lol.

 

I suspect that happened a lot this weekend.