BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Maggie]

8 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Gitesh suggesting in his tweet the $60 million was just US? 
 

Nobody really knows the truth. If Disney are going to throw that figure out there I’d like them to be clear as to how that breaks down. 

[wildphantom]

4 minutes ago, exomassey said:

If I knew someone who paid 30 for Black Widow on Disney plus, I would use their account to watch it cause I’m not paying that lol.

 

I suspect that happened a lot this weekend.

100%
 

Add to that the millions that watched the same version ripped for nothing, and will pass it on to others.  You can’t control anything once it’s out there. 

[Rman823]

10 minutes ago, exomassey said:

If I knew someone who paid 30 for Black Widow on Disney plus, I would use their account to watch it cause I’m not paying that lol.

 

I suspect that happened a lot this weekend.

That's one thing I hate about streaming releases. That $30 could be for one person, a family, or a large group of friends that get together and use one guy's account like it's a PPV fight. Not to mention those who will pirate with a nice HD copy out there now. 

 

I get the appeal of these releases but as someone who's followed the box office for years, it makes it a little more boring as the ability to determine just how successful a movie was lessens. Even with Disney giving us the PA numbers, it doesn't account for how many people watched with each $30 purchase. 

Edited July 11, 2021 by Rman823

[fmpro]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Someone from Disney either leaked/revealed Mulan $90M from PA.

First 3 days?

[Fullbuster]

2 million households is a huge success for Premiere Access, I know many of you are worried about theaters and all and are disappointed it's doing that well but it's how it is.

 

Don't worry, PA will end with Jungle Cruise anyway, it was an experience for the future in order to see the reactions from consumers, they got all the data they needed for a long term strategy.

 

Thankfully people on Twitter are way more realistic about it, they're shocked to see PA doing so well.

 

You'll be ok BOT, I promise, no need for twisting facts.

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, fmpro said:

First 3 days?

 

2 weeks. Black Widow will probably be much higher with PA next Sunday but not sure Disney will update.

[poncho]

@ThomasNicole 60 milhões no Premier Acess 😱 te falei que quando hitasse a Disney faria questão de divulgar os números, só provando que os anteriores floparam, esse numero e assustador

 

a kween venceu! eu amei o filme fiz um post na GN aclamando e defendendo dos haters

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, fmpro said:

First 3 days?

No full run I believe.

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Gitesh suggesting in his tweet the $60 million was just US? 
 

Nobody really knows the truth. If Disney are going to throw that figure out there I’d like them to be clear as to how that breaks down. 

Majority will be USA only. Though 60M is global number.

 

Per Samba, Mulan had like 1.1M purchases in first weekend in USA, UK was around 10% of that and Germany even lower.

 

Also, USA and Canada has like 2/3rd of Global Disney+, not including Hotstar since PA not available to us, so I will estimate like 75% ish from USA/Can alone, i.e. $45-50M.

Edited July 11, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[fmpro]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No full run I believe.

BW should beat that. I will add 30$ tomorrow. Still only 2 theaters showing it at the other end of the country

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, poncho said:

@ThomasNicole 60 milhões no Premier Acess 😱 te falei que quando hitasse a Disney faria questão de divulgar os números, só provando que os anteriores floparam, esse numero e assustador

 

a kween venceu! eu amei o filme fiz um post na GN aclamando e defendendo dos haters

Nunca amiga, os outros também hitaram, esse smashou, Disney só divulga quando é smash juro.

 

Rindo tu deve ter gostado mais do filme que eu então, achei 6.5 pra 7, mas se tá fazendo nerdola espumar estou feliz.

[TwoMisfits]

28 minutes ago, exomassey said:

If I knew someone who paid 30 for Black Widow on Disney plus, I would use their account to watch it cause I’m not paying that lol.

 

I suspect that happened a lot this weekend.

 

That's why it won't get more than $100M PA, if it has $60M now...Folks are too nice, and will offer up the movie to their friends and family if they bought it, so almost no one is buying it after the 1st few opening days...and they won't mind doing it b/c it will make them feel like they got more worth for their money, too...

 

It's like me guesting my friend to my pool and her hosting me for dinner - she's so cheap to guest at my pool, she went without her own pool membership this year, and I just guest her in on mine...and she makes me dinner once a month for our game nights...and we both feel good treating the other and saving money overall...

Edited July 11, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[BK007]

My first impression was that $60m for PA was massive. But once you start to dig deeper, it's actually not great. 

 

This is basically a one-time boost of $60m - and then those who did shell it out can, if they so choose to, keep rewatching it for no extra charge and also share it with others. But what is the trade off? Reduced box office gross in all major markets and undoubtedly a boon for pirates in other markets. 

 

Obviously at least its $60m compared to Warner's functionally nothing. 

 

I'd say Sony and Paramount have probably made the best deals selling their content to streamers. 

[exomassey]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

That's why it won't get more than $100M PA, if it has $60M now...Folks are too nice, and will offer up the movie to their friends and family if they bought it, so almost no one is buying it after the 1st few opening days...and they won't mind doing it b/c it will make them feel like they got more worth for their money, too...

 

It's like me guesting my friend to my pool and her hosting me for dinner - she's so cheap to guest at my pool, she went without her own pool membership this year, and I just guest her in on mine...and she makes me dinner once a month for our game nights...and we both feel good treating the other and saving money overall...

Yes exactly!

 

Also we have to factor in that this will effect the movie’s theatrical legs. A big drop next weekend shouldn’t surprise us.

[Eric Atreides]

A nice little BOT tidbit inbetween all the debates over Premier Access: we're now past 42 pages, which beats out the Sonic weekend thread back in February 2020 and is now the largest weekend thread we've had since New Year's Weekend 2019 at 58 pages. I don't think we'll get much further momentum to go above that, but it's good to know Papa Feige has brought us back to some of that old former glory.

[ThomasNicole]

Cruella drop 7% on it's seventh weekend and in it's way to $ 85-90M after a only decent 21M OW

 

PA didn't destroy legs, if BW legs are terrible that's on the movie. But i see no reason to expect less than 2.6x 

[BK007]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

That’s available at home for no extra cost. Should be looking at Shang Chi and Eternals instead, which both have to beat BW’s $80m opening because they’re cinema only. 

Summer weekdays could help. 

It was $75-85m officially. 

 

Why would they be expected to beat BW? 

 

Shang Chi looks super generic. Without the pandemic I don't think it would have beaten Doctor Strange. 

 

The Eternals also looks really meh. The jokes all fell flat, and from a non-comic reader, it looks like it's trying to replicate Guardians of the Galaxy except that was a comedy and this just looks like a plodding overwrought sci-fi film that doesn't do very well at the box office. 

 

44 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Which is even better!  By the way, it's nice to talk about the absence of China but $60m is what Disney would get from China with a gross of $240m OW so PA is like they added one China to their market so it's really good!

 

When have you ever been objective about Disney? You shouldn't worship corporations. 

[SpiderByte]

For the record: the last movie to top 80 million opening weekend was Rise of Skywalker.

[exomassey]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Cruella drop 7% on it's seventh weekend and in it's way to $ 85-90M after a only decent 21M OW

 

PA didn't destroy legs, if BW legs are terrible that's on the movie. But i see no reason to expect less than 2.6x 

I’m unsure about this because Black Widow did open to the amount Cruella has just reached.

 

With the movie everywhere online and more fan driven, I’m unsure whether is ceiling is high for Black Widow.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Cruella drop 7% on it's seventh weekend and in it's way to $ 85-90M after a only decent 21M OW

 

PA didn't destroy legs, if BW legs are terrible that's on the movie. But i see no reason to expect less than 2.6x 

Some weird cognitive dissonance between folks proclaiming “PA hurt the OW a lot,” “PA legs will be bad,” and “PA will make the BO legs bad.” These are not compatible statements.    
 

So far it seems like 1) is true, and 2) is true — and that actually leads to artificially good legs for PA releases. I’d go for 13.2+67*3.15=225

Edited July 11, 2021 by Lokis Legion