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BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

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Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Cruella drop 7% on it's seventh weekend and in it's way to $ 85-90M after a only decent 21M OW

 

PA didn't destroy legs, if BW legs are terrible that's on the movie. But i see no reason to expect less than 2.6x 

 

A 40% drop from Saturday as laid out by Deadline is pretty awful. 

 

I mean, who knows what's the cause but you could argue almost counterintuitively that the bigger the film, the worse it is for PA/digital etc.

 

You might want to bum Cruella or Raya or whatever off of someone else, but then no one paid for it either whereas BW might not be the same. Plus, this is after mask mandate was removed & most vaccinations, so higher chance you'd watch it at someone's place as an option. It would be mainly families watching Cruella and Raya together, but Widow is meant to be a four quadrant blockbuster so who knows.

 

I'd be really surprised if they continued this with Marvel films. As Deadline put it, they are reducing the pie. It's a moronic business decision honestly. 

 

And everyone still keeps missing the fact that all the studios had to strike deals with the theatres for this day and date release format. Don't know what the amount is, but theatres did not just say 'have at it'. 

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10 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

A nice little BOT tidbit inbetween all the debates over Premier Access: we're now past 42 pages, which beats out the Sonic weekend thread back in February 2020 and is now the largest weekend thread we've had since New Year's Weekend 2019 at 58 pages. I don't think we'll get much further momentum to go above that, but it's good to know Papa Feige has brought us back to some of that old former glory.

 

Industry specialists and the Buzz thread said the BOT weekend thread was tracking for 30 pages, so that was quite a bit over the estimates :ph34r:

 

In the absence of accurate PA numbers tracking at least we can track the number of pages in the week-end threads :jedi:

 

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This a great pot pandemic result. People actually got up and went and sat in a theater to watch a Black Widow origin movie. Not sure why people expect much more. 

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8 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

Why would they be expected to beat BW? 

 

Shang Chi looks super generic. Without the pandemic I don't think it would have beaten Doctor Strange. 

 

The Eternals also looks really meh. The jokes all fell flat, and from a non-comic reader, it looks like it's trying to replicate Guardians of the Galaxy except that was a comedy and this just looks like a plodding overwrought sci-fi film that doesn't do very well at the box office. 

 

 

When have you ever been objective about Disney? You shouldn't worship corporations. 

To be fair if anything, Black Widow looked more generic than Shang Chi and Eternals. Also the Black Widow character is dead, SC and Eternals will be the MCU phase 4 actually beginning imo.

 

Also it all depends on if Shang Chi and Eternals are actually good movies lol

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60m PA globally according to deadline . So will go with that for now since it's reputable site .

 

Were D+ numbers released for that good 200m+  headline . Yeah most likely.

But nonetheless 80m through lower than expected is still a solid number and that is 60m is a really good number.

 

PA may tend to be frontloaded. Once a purchase is made the user can then access it on D+ and watch it after how many times they want. Go with 100M+ for now.

 

Mulans run was estimated at Around 90m though that was never official.

 

Is the 60m for 2 or 3days don't know.will see if disney make it's clear because publications didn't make that clear tbh

 

Will black widow be successful ? probably yes but will see how it does the subsequent weeks.

 

I'm going for 100M+PA + 425m+  boxoffice and home media to get it over the line  but that's just my prediction let's see how it unfolds.

 

Two things I will be watching out for next week is how it drops and will disney continue releasing the PA  numbers? Let's see but I highly doubt it.

 

 

Edited by Liiviig 1998
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2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Some weird cognitive dissonance between folks proclaiming “PA hurt the OW a lot,” “PA legs will be bad,” and “PA will make the BO legs bad.” These are not compatible statements.    
 

So far it seems like 1) is true, and 2) is true — and that actually leads to artificially good legs for PA releases. I’d go for 13.2+67*3.15=225

 

No it isn't. 

 

People used to go for repeat viewings. Now you've paid $30 for yourself and your family, and your extended family, and your buds and they can see it as many times as they want. Disney only gets $30 instead of how much more? 

 

So all of what you quoted actually is compatible. It did hurt OW, it does hurt legs and PA legs are bad because it's a countdown to being free in 3 months anyway. 

 

Also as I laid out in a previous post, you can't compare a 4 quadrant film with a family movie. The 'collateral damage' is theoretically way higher and probably that'll happen in reality, but we'll see how it holds up. Disney won't be keeping us abreast of what it made on PA though unless the box office really drops off a cliff.

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Also one thing I was thinking is the themes of Black Widow (especially at the beginning) are quite dark for the MCU. 

 

It’s not really a movie young kids would enjoy in the summer if I’m being honest. So that might effect legs but I’m only theorizing.

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1 hour ago, Mr Terrific said:

Will Shang-Chi be a PA movie?

Does Disney announcing PA money for BW suggest that is more likely or less likely?

 

1 hour ago, Mr Terrific said:

Maybe Shang-Chi stays theater exclusive so the numbers don’t look even worse relative to BW. 
Will have Disney have any ego about wanting to avoid SC only doing $50-60m on OW?

 

It will be an interesting to see what Disney does, do they try to maximize revenue from this movie or try to avoid a bad box office number for a Marvel movie?  After this and given everything else going against the movie there is a very good chance it could open to less than 50 million.

 

 

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1 minute ago, exomassey said:

I’m unsure about this because Black Widow did open to the amount Cruella has just reached.

 

With the movie everywhere online and more fan driven, I’m unsure whether is ceiling is high for Black Widow.

Yeah i agreed, BW is way bigger in scale, that's why Cruella will manage a 4x multiplier and BW won't get near 3x.

 

But i don't think it will abysmally bad either, just average like other MCU movies, so 2.6-2.7x

 

Kong was available for free and didn't have bad legs, this with PA should follow the pattern.

 

Especially because i do think PA numbers are always frontloaded, so in the next weeks this won't hurt it much. That's my theory of why Raya got 6.4x and Cruella will got +4.0x, smaller movies and PA only hurt it in the first days.

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1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah i agreed, BW is way bigger in scale, that's why Cruella will manage a 4x multiplier and BW won't get near 3x.

 

But i don't think it will abysmally bad either, just average like other MCU movies, so 2.6-2.7x

 

Kong was available for free and didn't have bad legs, this with PA should follow the pattern.

 

Especially because i do think PA numbers are always frontloaded, so in the next weeks this won't hurt it much. That's my theory of why Raya got 6.4x and Cruella will got +4.0x, smaller movies and PA only hurt it in the first days.

Ok yeah I agree with this.

 

Now it really just depends on the word of mouth. I definitely think the reaction to Black Widow is not as positive as most MCU films.

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I am repeating myself, PA number will only be a good thing if Home Media drop from CM ($105M Net) ain't that much.

 

For now it has taken away money from box office in market it released, shifted super majority of its viewers to piracy in market oy didn't release & is obv gonna hurt home media awfully.

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That’s definitely a much weaker multiplier than I was expecting from Black Widow and there’s no way around that, but taken as a whole, the weekend number is good. These are still incredibly strange times and we’re still only about three months removed from when Godzilla vs. Kong’s $48 million domestic five-day opening felt like a great sign for box office prospects, so I’m trying to keep a sense of perspective on where we are with recovery.

 

I would also agree with the sentiment that Disney releasing the PA number feels like an effort at spin, as if to say “See? We got over 100, in a manner of speaking.” Really, given the variety of unknowns at play with people’s reasoning for opting for PA rather than seeing the film in a theater, I don’t think there’s any way of knowing what Black Widow would have opened to without it. Just for instance: what might be the breakdown of people who opted for PA who did so because they’re not comfortable with going back to theaters yet (and presumably wouldn’t have seen it this weekend but for being able to watch it at home) vs. people who opted for the convenience of being able to see it at home but would have gone to a theater if PA hadn’t been an option?

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I realize many of you are big theater buffs and are a little miffed at the impact streaming is having on the theater business but you can't deny how massively successful this has been for Disney plus. I mentioned yesterday that Black Widow was on the trending section. Well yesterday it was #23 on Trending. Today it is #15. When it all is said and done if Black Widow continues to stay on trending for a good period of time it will likely end up making more on Disney plus then it will in theaters. PA is here to stay folks if they are going to be making that kind of money off of it.

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36 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Some weird cognitive dissonance between folks proclaiming “PA hurt the OW a lot,” “PA legs will be bad,” and “PA will make the BO legs bad.” These are not compatible statements.    
 

So far it seems like 1) is true, and 2) is true — and that actually leads to artificially good legs for PA releases. I’d go for 13.2+67*3.15=225

You have left out two fundamental things

 

Cruella,rays ,croods most of this first and foremost are family movies which tend to be leggy .BW is a fan driven franchise

 

Secondly most of this movies have had very positive reactions(good AS on RT , A cinemascore )

 

Black widow sits at an A-  which is still a good score but considering it's one of two movies below A in the last 11 mcu movies that shouldn't be taken lightly.

 

Going with the standard 2.6x mcu legs. wont be surprised with 2.4-2.5x

 

 

Edited by Liiviig 1998
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6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am repeating myself, PA number will only be a good thing if Home Media drop from CM ($105M Net) ain't that much.

 

For now it has taken away money from box office in market it released, shifted super majority of its viewers to piracy in market oy didn't release & is obv gonna hurt home media awfully.

Ya I think people are missing your point. I’m a perfect example of that. I used to rent and then buy all mcu movies once they came out, now cause of Disney+ I won’t be doing that anymore, but they still get my money for Disney+. 

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3 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Ya I think people are missing your point. I’m a perfect example of that. I used to rent and then buy all mcu movies once they came out, now cause of Disney+ I won’t be doing that anymore, but they still get my money for Disney+. 

thats nor really accurate. D+/Hulu is meant to replace all ancillary sources of revenue as well. Tv deals, home media, everythings...simply with the subscription price. and it will easily do that.  the days of individually monetizing a piece of content are over for disney with how successful D+ is. 

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I understand the home media point and it make sense to me, but i also feel sales are dropping hard every year so i don't know.

 

I wouldn't expect BW home video to come very near to CM even without PA.

 

I feel that with streaming growing every year many people know that any movie will be available at some platform and think there's no need to buy physical media.

 

 

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