BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Nikostar]

Going to miss the days where movies like Black Panther massively over performs and nobody can dispute its success. Black Widow numbers are decent but very boring.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Nikostar

[poweranimals]

WTF happened? ☹️

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

The idea being that people who paid for BW on D+ for $30 would be less willing to pay for it again for the same experience at home, therefore potentially weakening the later home video windows of the title.

That doesn’t tell us anything about Black Widow’s PA number and whether it’s a success or not though. Comparing a premiere download to estimated home video profits for a film released pre-pandemic means nothing tbh. 
 

1 hour ago, RockyMountain said:

Some people may be shocked how well PA is doing

Let’s slow down a bit, this is the first number they’ve released which means it’s the most any of the films have made: 2m downloads globally. 

[lorddemaxus]

59 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Disney is going to look dumb if Shang Chi disappoints with ~50 m OW and no PA revenue. 

 

Versus making 40m OW and 30m from PA.

 

That's a much bigger profit margin not even including new subscribers.

I still think they also lose out other home video money later on anyways. It will even out at the end and they'll come out with similar profit margins, PA or no PA. People are making a way too big deal out of this (I mean, Disney was clever to release those numbers).

Edited July 11, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[RockyMountain]

31 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Nope, you can watch it as many times as you want.  Thus, why Black Widow staying high in views won't mean much, b/c it will likely be subscribers watching it over and over again with different friend and family groups (or their kids watching it every day - that happens for the kid movies a lot)...and some subcribers share their info with family, so then it will be those other families watching it with their friends and families...rinse and repeat...

 

 

 

That will happen a little bit. However there is a limit to how many different people are allowed to use one account. The limit as far as I know right now is four. People will start being at risk of getting their account locked if they start becoming a little too share happy. 

 

Also Marvel movies aren't really on trending much. The movies that tend to get rewatched over and over again and that do stay on trending are the kid movies. The longer Black Widow stays on trending the chances are good that it means that more people are buying the Premiere Access and new people are watching.

[RockyMountain]

6 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Going to miss the days where movies like Black Panther massively over performs and nobody can dispute its success. Black Widow numbers are decent but very boring.

 

Yep. Think it is something people are going to have to get used to though as it looks like it is going to turn into the new normal.

[grey ghost]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I still think they also lose out other home video money later on anyways. It will even out at the end and they'll come out with similar profit margins, PA or no PA. People are making a way too big deal out of this (I mean, Disney was clever to release those numbers).

 

I mean the home video market doesn't have the same value as it once did.

 

I doubt BW would make 100m on home video especially when it will be free on Disney+ around the same time.

[misterpepp]

13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That doesn’t tell us anything about Black Widow’s PA number and whether it’s a success or not though. Comparing a premiere download to estimated home video profits for a film released pre-pandemic means nothing tbh. 

 

What I think Jat's trying to say (and he can correct me if I'm wrong) is that he views PA as truly a success only if it ends up grossing a bunch without hurting the home video windows down the line, thus that would result in increasing overall revenues instead of re-allocating or decreasing them.

Edited July 11, 2021 by datpepper

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

Disney is going to look dumb if Shang Chi disappoints with <80 m OW and no PA revenue. 

Fixed.

 

$50m isn’t the bar for Shang-Chi and Eternals when people are calling $80m for Black Widow a disappointment. 

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

I mean the home video market doesn't have the same value as it once did.

 

I doubt BW would make 100m on home video especially when it will be free on Disney+ around the same time.

The home video market is still pretty valuable and would stay that way if Disney stops more PA releases after this. And it will be on Disney+ a month after it goes on home video. Really doubt Disney's profit margins are changing from this.

[WrathOfHan]

The only thing that matters is whether or not my Disney stock increases tomorrow. That's how I will determine if this is a successful weekend or a flop.

[ZattMurdock]

1 hour ago, Saul Goodman said:

 

I’m trusting Disney and Kroll vouching for the numbers being reliable on this one. This is an excellent result, and with things not getting better enough until September globally, I hope Shang-Chi gets released on PA as well. I know for sure that at least in Brazil we won’t be in the clear. I’m only taking my second shot by the end of that month.

[grim22]

1 hour ago, Saul Goodman said:

 

The answer is simple - Cruella and Mulan didn't have the MCU brand.. They literally cannot afford for them to look weak which would be the narrative with the awful weekend multiplier.

[ZattMurdock]

18 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I still think they also lose out other home video money later on anyways. It will even out at the end and they'll come out with similar profit margins, PA or no PA. People are making a way too big deal out of this (I mean, Disney was clever to release those numbers).

I don’t think people are following Disney’s logic with Premier Access and Disney Plus. They are giving up the home video market, and they have been doing that for a while. I have a 4K OLED tv, there is no point buying a blu-ray for this since they never release UHD 4K outside the major markets anyway. It’s all about Disney Plus growth and it has been before the pandemic was a thing as well. To give you all some idea, I can’t even buy digital Disney films on Apple TV because they simply aren’t available there. And when they were, they never released one single 4K film on that platform in Brazil. They are focusing on Disney Plus right now, and it seems to me like a smart move.

[AndyLL]

It's a new world and we'll have to adjust.  Old metrics are not comparable.  From r/hometheater:

 

Some selected comments:

 

Spoiler

 

I also just bought Black Widow and watched on the new TV and Atmos audio system I built up over the last year. While obviously the experience was not as good as the theater it was good enough plus:

- I can change the volume so my ears are not ringing when I leave.

- I can pause and go to the bathroom.

- There are not people coughing, kids crying, people talking.

- Snacks are cheaper.

 

Amen. I started building my HT before the pandemic, and then went all in during it.

 

It will be interesting for sure. Kids movies might be different. Like I did not want to wait because I knew I would be spoilt about something waiting for it to come to streaming, and I wanted to discuss it with friends. I do not think many kids need to stand around the cooler at school discussing the plot of Mulan. So there is no way I would drop $30 for my kid to see Raya a few months early.

 

I saw it in a Dolby Cinema theater and it was nice but I still kinda regretted not just buying it to watch on my OLED.

 

I went to a theater the other day and it was $100 for 3 of us because of drinks and popcorn. I was thinking that this might be one of the last times because I have a sweet home theater lol.

 

I definitely have a better experience at home.

-The OLED TV destroys any theater (in my country at least) in terms of color, dynamic range, etc.

-I don't have to spend a fortune on snacks

-The sound is just better, even with my modest 5.1 setup

-No idiots having conversations and looking at their phones at max brightness

-No kids running around or crying because their idiots parents didn't consider this wasn't a good movie for 5 year olds

-Groups of teenagers with zero interest in the movie

-Subwoofer rumble from the action movie next door

If it was up to me I'd never return to a theater.

 

Black Widow was the first movie I have seen in a theater since the end of 2019. I paid $35 for two tickets for myself and my father after taxes and 'convenience fees'. That was adult matinee and senior citizen. He bought a bottle of water for $6. Things will only get worse with inflation now ramping up so outside of Marvel films, which we see together as a tradition, I will not be seeing much in a theater. I just do not see the value any longer especially with an 85 inch at home with a good sound system.

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The answer is simple - Cruella and Mulan didn't have the MCU brand.. They literally cannot afford for them to look weak which would be the narrative with the awful weekend multiplier.

LOL. Sure. 

[Orestes]

47 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

Yeah... but the data they got was that families are not yet comfortable going back to the theater.

 

Probably won't change till the 12 and under crowd can get vaccinated, so maybe sometime in the Fall? Hard to say for sure.

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, Zatt was right said:

I don’t think people are following Disney’s logic with Premier Access and Disney Plus. They are giving up the home video market, and they have been doing that for a while. I have a 4K OLED tv, there is no point buying a blu-ray for this since they never release UHD 4K outside the major markets anyway. It’s all about Disney Plus growth and it has been before the pandemic was a thing as well. To give you all some idea, I can’t even buy digital Disney films on Apple TV because they simply aren’t available there. And when they were, they never released one single 4K film on that platform in Brazil. They are focusing on Disney Plus right now, and it seems to me like a smart move.

You do realise blurays isn't the only home video format right? PA isn't a move that's going to cause substantial D+ growth either. This movie isn't a part of your Disney+ subscription right now.

Edited July 11, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

It's a new world and we'll have to adjust.  Old metrics are not comparable.  From r/hometheater:

 

Some selected comments:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I also just bought Black Widow and watched on the new TV and Atmos audio system I built up over the last year. While obviously the experience was not as good as the theater it was good enough plus:

- I can change the volume so my ears are not ringing when I leave.

- I can pause and go to the bathroom.

- There are not people coughing, kids crying, people talking.

- Snacks are cheaper.

 

Amen. I started building my HT before the pandemic, and then went all in during it.

 

It will be interesting for sure. Kids movies might be different. Like I did not want to wait because I knew I would be spoilt about something waiting for it to come to streaming, and I wanted to discuss it with friends. I do not think many kids need to stand around the cooler at school discussing the plot of Mulan. So there is no way I would drop $30 for my kid to see Raya a few months early.

 

I saw it in a Dolby Cinema theater and it was nice but I still kinda regretted not just buying it to watch on my OLED.

 

I went to a theater the other day and it was $100 for 3 of us because of drinks and popcorn. I was thinking that this might be one of the last times because I have a sweet home theater lol.

 

I definitely have a better experience at home.

-The OLED TV destroys any theater (in my country at least) in terms of color, dynamic range, etc.

-I don't have to spend a fortune on snacks

-The sound is just better, even with my modest 5.1 setup

-No idiots having conversations and looking at their phones at max brightness

-No kids running around or crying because their idiots parents didn't consider this wasn't a good movie for 5 year olds

-Groups of teenagers with zero interest in the movie

-Subwoofer rumble from the action movie next door

If it was up to me I'd never return to a theater.

 

Black Widow was the first movie I have seen in a theater since the end of 2019. I paid $35 for two tickets for myself and my father after taxes and 'convenience fees'. That was adult matinee and senior citizen. He bought a bottle of water for $6. Things will only get worse with inflation now ramping up so outside of Marvel films, which we see together as a tradition, I will not be seeing much in a theater. I just do not see the value any longer especially with an 85 inch at home with a good sound system.

 

 

 

 

 

Lol, people describing their home set ups makes me cringe because they can never compete with cinemas. 
 

They always seem as if they’re bragging, like people care. And then that’s the image they use 😂

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

You do realise blurays isn't the only home video format right? PA isn't a move that's going to cause substantial D+ growth either. This movie isn't a part of your Disney+ subscription right now.

I don’t think you are in a position that you can possibly gauge how much Black Widow is adding to Disney Plus subscription growth. In order to get this film available at home, you need a Disney Plus subscription. That’s precisely one of the major reasons why I know several people have the service, but I’d rather listen to what they have to say about this.