BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[misterpepp]

I don't think comments and posts on Reddit are indicative of what the general public thinks. Reddit tends to be a bit of a bubble, especially among the subs within it. Of course people on r/hometheater are gonna be more interested in Premier Access than a theatrical viewing, that just seems to be a biased source.

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Zatt was right said:

I don’t think you are in a position that you can possibly gauge how much Black Widow is adding to Disney Plus subscription growth. In order to get this film available at home, you need a Disney Plus subscription. That’s precisely one of the major reasons why I know several people have the service, but I’d rather listen to what they have to say about this.

Many people have the service to get movies without an additional paywall. The paywall is there to get more money out of existing D+ subs, not to attract new ones. I don't think we've actually seen substantial sub growth due to these PA releases.

[CJohn]

There isn't a single impressive number here. 80M OW after that disaster Saturday will probably go down with actuals. 78M OS isn't anything great either. And just 60M globally from PA? Only the combination of the 3 really gives a strong number for PR. Anything else makes the BW opening look weak.

 

 

This raises a lot of questions about Shang,Chi and what to make with all these blockbuster movies which simply aren't making enough money. Disney can't release Shang-Chi without D+ PA, that much is obvious.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

Many people have the service to get movies without an additional paywall. The paywall is there to get more money out of existing D+ subs, not to attract new ones. I don't think we've actually seen substantial sub growth due to these PA releases.

And that will be a pointless discussion since we only get this kind of data out of Disney themselves. We live in a very different world than 2019. I won’t be risking the lives of my loved ones because of a movie theater adventure, regardless how much I love cinema and the movie theater experience. As long as it isn’t safe, PA is the best viable option for regions where covid isn’t under control. Disney didn’t change the movie theater experience, they just adapted themselves faster to the current landscape.

[grey ghost]

Let's say BW made 110 m OW without PA (that's being generous).

 

That's 30m extra and only 15m in profit.

 

How is that a better move for Disney?

 

I mean 110m gets the box office nerds' nipples hard but other than that it's not a sound business decision. 

[fabiopazzo2]

Let the movie have 60 days in the cinema my god

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Let's say BW made 110 m OW without PA (that's being generous).

 

That's 30m extra and only 15m in profit.

 

How is that a better move for Disney?

 

I mean 110m gets the box office nerds' nipples hard but other than that it's not a sound business decision. 

I think people who want to make it look bad will never assume that they're making more money this way.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Let's say BW made 110 m OW without PA (that's being generous).

 

That's 30m extra and only 15m in profit.

 

How is that a better move for Disney?

 

I mean 110m gets the box office nerds' nipples hard but other than that it's not a sound business decision. 

 

Yes, but PA is pretty much one big weekend of profit...Box Office is 4-8 weeks of it...you'll be reducing your potential profit every weekend.

 

I mean, if I'm a theater, Space Jam 2 is gonna get an extra screen or two than planned from Black Widow next weekend...

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, Zatt was right said:

And that will be a pointless discussion since we only get this kind of data out of Disney themselves. We live in a very different world than 2019. I won’t be risking the lives of my loved ones because of a movie theater adventure, regardless how much I love cinema and the movie theater experience. As long as it isn’t safe, PA is the best viable option for regions where covid isn’t under control. Disney didn’t change the movie theater experience, they just adapted themselves faster to the current landscape.

We have sub-growth data from Disney for the past couple quarters. PA hasn't caused any substantial changes there as far as I can tell. And you're from Brazil right? I doubt this makes much of a difference regardless where you live (a developing country, same as where I live) anyways since most people are rather going to pirate the movie rather than pay whatever on top of a subscription to watch it on PA. PVOD is pretty much not a thing in Latin America or Asia.

Edited July 11, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[misterpepp]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Let's say BW made 110 m OW without PA (that's being generous).

 

That's 30m extra and only 15m in profit.

 

How is that a better move for Disney?

 

I mean 110m gets the box office nerds' nipples hard but other than that it's not a sound business decision. 

 

Shouldn't additional costs for back-end deals also be considered here though? Given that's what HBO Max had to do, I'm assuming Disney's doing something similar. Also, doesn't Disney tend to get closer than 60% on a traditional theatrical release, as opposed to the 50% they're giving here (I believe I read from Deadline that's what Disney is doing as some sort of incentive for theaters to play a day-and-date title)? Additionally, as has been mentioned, the worldwide theatrical window isn't the only one hurt here, as the later home video windows are also damaged, so the differences in costs/revenue/profit probably aren't that clear.

 

As has also been mentioned, that's just the extra money from opening weekend, which would likely translate into better legs and more revenue overall. Talent at the studio (including Feige) also like the theatrical window, and Disney still needs the exhibition businesses to support and play their titles, or they lose out on all the money their movies make in theaters. While multiplexes don't have a lot of leverage now, as other studios return to theatrical-only, they'll start to gain a bit more power in negotiations for windows (which Cinemark already began to play around with).

Edited July 11, 2021 by datpepper

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, datpepper said:

I don't think comments and posts on Reddit are indicative of what the general public thinks. Reddit tends to be a bit of a bubble, especially among the subs within it. Of course people on r/hometheater are gonna be more interested in Premier Access than a theatrical viewing, that just seems to be a biased source.

Agreed. Not very different here, it's a box office forum, the more conservative people will riot about PA no matter how good things turn out to be.

 

People who aren't very protective about any will probably have the most reasonable response.

[AndyLL]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Lol, people describing their home set ups makes me cringe because they can never compete with cinemas. 
 

They always seem as if they’re bragging, like people care. And then that’s the image they use 😂

 

Well... I will always take my AMCs Dolby theater over home.  (they also have liemax and 2 other huge screens)  But it's a 45 minute drive.

 

For convenience I saw BW last night at my local AMC.  One of their larger theaters but sitting in the middle of the theater did not feel 'immersive'.  The screen seemed small and my current 7.2 home system in a small room has better sound then that theater did.

 

You can't beat the atmosphere of a full theater on a blockbuster opener but you can certainly mimic the sound/visual at home these days at a reasonable cost

 

 

[robertman2]

Numbers seem fine to me 

[ThomasNicole]

The only thing that sure seems bad is that these past weekends proof that we're far from normal.

 

We're going to August already and all the big movies will gross around $ 500M and that's it. 

 

Considering the new variant, i think the rest of the year will have solid business like right now, but pre pandemic levels? Yeah, next year if we're lucky.

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

We're going to August already and all the big movies will gross around $ 500M and that's it. 

This would be grossing more like $700 mil had it got a Chinese release. Wouldn't be too far off from its original boxoffice.

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

We have sub-growth data from Disney for the past couple quarters. PA hasn't caused any substantial changes there as far as I can tell. And you're from Brazil right? I doubt this makes much of a difference regardless where you live (a developing country, same as where I live) anyways since most people are rather going to pirate the movie rather than pay whatever on top of a subscription to watch it on PA. PVOD is pretty much not a thing in Latin America or Asia.

I think it’s obvious that Black Widow is different than anything on PA before. This is my first PA purchase and it won’t be the last one if they release Shang-Chi or other MCU films in that format, and even if we get covid under control. I’m not sure if the assumption that most will pirate the film is apt, piracy isn’t a thing as  much as it once was with streaming services. We can’t assume that piracy numbers would change box office back then, I am sure that we can’t do that in a streaming landscape during an undergoing pandemic either. We will have to trust Disney and other studios on this when it comes to their data.

[fabiopazzo2]

None expect Shang chi open over BW here.

50/60M for unkonw character is What we should expect

 

there's no movie event until "No time to Die" now 

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think people who want to make it look bad will never assume that they're making more money this way.

 

I think that we wouldn't have this debate if they reported WW number from the boxoffice alone and PA one some days later. But the combo, which they never did before, does look like a damage control - either their perception that i's weak or concern that it would be perceived as weak though they don't see it as such necessarily. So by combining both, they attracted unwanted attention. 

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, fabiopazzo2 said:

None expect Shang chi open over BW here.

50/60M for unkonw character is What we should expect

 

there's no movie event until "No time to Die" now 

Agreed. Shang-Chi would benefit heavily from PA because of this as well. If I won’t risk my ass for Natasha, you bet that I won’t do it for Shang-Chi either.

[jimisawesome]

17 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Let's say BW made 110 m OW without PA (that's being generous).

 

That's 30m extra and only 15m in profit.

 

How is that a better move for Disney?

 

I mean 110m gets the box office nerds' nipples hard but other than that it's not a sound business decision. 

 

Because nearly everyone that bought PA this weekend would have either seen it in theaters or purchased it when it was released to the home market.  Now, Disney lost out on all the people that would have went to the theater and also bought the movie and all they got in return was basically moving up when they can realize the revenue they where going to make anyways by a few months.