BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, Zatt was right said:

I think it’s obvious that Black Widow is different than anything on PA before. This is my first PA purchase and it won’t be the last one if they release Shang-Chi or other MCU films in that format, and even if we get covid under control. I’m not sure if the assumption that most will pirate the film is apt, piracy isn’t a thing as  much as it once was with streaming services. We can’t assume that piracy numbers would change box office back then, I am sure that we can’t do that in a streaming landscape during an undergoing pandemic either. We will have to trust Disney and other studios on this when it comes to their data.

You keep treating PA as SVOD, when it really isn't. People aren't paying a small monthly fee to watch Black Widow and other movies for no additional cost. It's more like PVOD where people have to pay a much larger one-time fee to watch one movie. Markets where piracy is still a huge deal don't have much penetration in terms of any sort of PVOD or TVOD sales. Streaming services are big but that's because they're cheap, anything that's offered on other home video options are just pirated.

Edited July 11, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[fabiopazzo2]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The only thing that sure seems bad is that these past weekends proof that we're far from normal.

 

We're going to August already and all the big movies will gross around $ 500M and that's it. 

 

Considering the new variant, i think the rest of the year will have solid business like right now, but pre pandemic levels? Yeah, next year if we're lucky.

the situation will not return to normal immediately, it takes time

[RockyMountain]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

The only thing that sure seems bad is that these past weekends proof that we're far from normal.

 

We're going to August already and all the big movies will gross around $ 500M and that's it. 

 

Considering the new variant, i think the rest of the year will have solid business like right now, but pre pandemic levels? Yeah, next year if we're lucky.

 

Possible. But I think there is going to come a point within the next year if movies continue to underperform compared to how they did pre-pandemic that people are just going to have to admit that this is the new normal. THeater attendance had been declining for quite a while even before the pandemic hit. Fewer and fewer people are desiring that 'theater experience' with each passing year.

 

Now that we have streaming and people have systems built in their homes that resemble the theater experience an increasing number of people are going to choose that route then going to a theater full of a bunch of strangers. 

 

Black Widow will probably end up in the 400m range WW. I think it is entirely possible that billion dollar films are a thing of the past. 

[TMP]

6 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

there's no movie event until "No time to Die" now 

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, jimisawesome said:

 

Because nearly everyone that bought PA this weekend would have either seen it in theaters or purchased it when it was released to the home market.  Now, Disney lost out on all the people that would have went to the theater and also bought the movie and all they got in return was basically moving up when they can realize the revenue they where going to make anyways by a few months.

I wouldn’t bought the film with their current plan for 4K outside the US. Not sure how it works outside the US right now, but the only option for 4K in Brazil is Disney Plus. I won’t be buying 1080p Blu-rays and buying digitally isn’t an option for Disney films either.

[jimisawesome]

23 minutes ago, CJohn said:

There isn't a single impressive number here. 80M OW after that disaster Saturday will probably go down with actuals. 78M OS isn't anything great either. And just 60M globally from PA? Only the combination of the 3 really gives a strong number for PR. Anything else makes the BW opening look weak.

 

 

This raises a lot of questions about Shang,Chi and what to make with all these blockbuster movies which simply aren't making enough money. Disney can't release Shang-Chi without D+ PA, that much is obvious.

 

If PA is still on the table I would think the discussion has to be do they roll the dice that they can avoid the headlines that Shang Chi is the lowest opening MCU movie or do they just try to make as much as they can.  That they gave it the worst opening date it seems they are willing to take a bad headline with this movie.

 

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

This would be grossing more like $700 mil had it got a Chinese release. Wouldn't be too far off from its original boxoffice.

Yeah, i think without PA would be 640-680M

 

But still, i think this could easily being closer to 1B pre pandemic, given how huge it was the buzz before the delays.

 

I'm not sure the first movie who can finally surpass 600M this year, NTTD maybe, and it's still 3 months alway.

 

I'm not complaining tho, after 2020 i think is enough to keep theaters going.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah, i think without PA would be 640-680M

 

But still, i think this could easily being closer to 1B pre pandemic, given how huge it was the buzz before the delays.

 

I'm not sure the first movie who can finally surpass 600M this year, NTTD maybe, and it's still 3 months alway.

 

I'm not complaining tho, after 2020 i think is enough to keep theaters going.

 

Fast 9 is at $541M and counting...I would think it's got a good chance b/c it still has $25-$30M (or even more, now that BW will be giving up screens, so they won't have to drop holdovers) DOM and then it only needs $30M more WW...

 

 

[fabiopazzo2]

6 minutes ago, TMP said:

🤌🏻🤌🏻🤌🏻🤌🏻🤌🏻

[SpiderByte]

3 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

Some weird cognitive dissonance between folks proclaiming “PA hurt the OW a lot,” “PA legs will be bad,” and “PA will make the BO legs bad.” These are not compatible statements.    

Thank you! People keep making Mulan comparisons when Mulan release was nothing like this.

[cax16]

Shang-Chi OW > BW OW domestic 

 

 

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, cax16 said:

Shang-Chi OW > BW OW domestic 

 

 

I see Ant man levels for Shang Chi

[TMP]

If this is what Widow did, I think some upcoming movies will have ugly opening weekends. Could see Space Jam, Jungle Cruise and The Suicide Squad all doing sub-$40m. Snake Eyes and Free Guy already feel DOA.

[hw64]

15 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

I think it is entirely possible that billion dollar films are a thing of the past. 

 

We're better than this, surely.

[CJohn]

My conclusion with all this mess is that this was meant to be a celebratory weekend and instead it is a hot fucking mess. Maybe this tames expectations a bit and shows things are very dire right now and far from normal.

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

I see Ant man levels for Shang Chi

 

With a $150M production budget, they probably want better than Ant Man...

[fabiopazzo2]

5 minutes ago, TMP said:

If this is what Widow did, I think some upcoming movies will have ugly opening weekends. Could see Space Jam, Jungle Cruise and The Suicide Squad all doing sub-$40m. Snake Eyes and Free Guy already feel DOA.

Who knows... maybe we will have a Little surprise 

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Who knows... maybe we will have a Little surprise 

Maybe. I actually think Snake Eyes doesn't look too bad, lol

[CJohn]

Space Jam 2 and Escape Room 2 will look bad next weekend as well.

 

Thinking 25-26M for Space Jam 2 and 7-8M for Escape Room 2.

[fabiopazzo2]

ITS COMING HOMEEEEEE

🇮🇹 🇮🇹