BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, TMP said:

If this is what Widow did, I think some upcoming movies will have ugly opening weekends. Could see Space Jam, Jungle Cruise and The Suicide Squad all doing sub-$40m. Snake Eyes and Free Guy already feel DOA.

I mean, I agree, but this would also be my expectation for Space Jam, Jungle Cruise, Snake Eyes, and Free Guy if BW had done 110M. Even without covid Hollywood has had a lot of misses in terms of luring the GA to threaters. 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, fabiopazzo2 said:

ITS COMING HOMEEEEEE

🇮🇹 🇮🇹 

 

Wow - England choked on those kicks (I give the goalie half credit for the stops).  I really thought Italy's choke to win was gonna keep the kicks going, but that last England shot - woof!

 

Congrats!

[Orestes]

Movies that would have a family audience I can see struggling, like Space Jam and Jungle Cruise. Suicide Squad is R rated, so if its theaters only it won't be affected as much.

[keysersoze123]

England missed 3 penalties in a row !!!! Deserved to lose. Congrats Italy. 

[ThomasNicole]

Buzz for Shang Chi seems good to me

 

Without PA i can easily see this making 65-70M OW, but with the new variant let's see how things will be in 2 months.

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

England missed 3 penalties in a row !!!! Deserved to lose. Congrats Italy. 

Yes, but we play better during 120 minute

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Orestes said:

Movies that would have a family audience I can see struggling, like Space Jam and Jungle Cruise. Suicide Squad is R rated, so if its theaters only it won't be affected as much.

The Suicide Squad will be available in HBO Max too.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, fabiopazzo2 said:

Yes, but we play better during 120 minute

 

You really did - I'm surprised you didn't win in normal time, b/c Italy dominated that game from the 2nd half on...

[Eric Atreides]

Ehh, I think Space Jam's reaching 35M. I can even see a scenario where it's #1 next weekend. There's plenty of ads out there and 90s nostalgia is a mighty force to be reckoned with. And while sales here are overindexing because of Philly's demographics, it seems like it's doing well enough among other areas in terms of sales just by anecdotal posts here that I feel confident saying that.

 

I do think Free Guy, Jungle Cruise and Space Jam will all probably land in the 20-30M range though and Suicide Squad seems like a 40M style opener.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Eric Belov said:

Ehh, I think Space Jam's reaching 35M. I can even see a scenario where it's #1 next weekend. There's plenty of ads out there and 90s nostalgia is a mighty force to be reckoned with. And while sales here are overindexing because of Philly's demographics, it seems like it's doing well enough among other areas in terms of sales just by anecdotal posts here that I feel confident saying that.

 

I do think Free Guy, Jungle Cruise and Space Jam will all probably land in the 20-30M range though and Suicide Squad seems like a 40M style opener.

 

I'd join that club, seeing what the tracking thread has for BW's possible Sunday number...if people were disappointed with Saturday, I wouldn't go to that thread yet:)...

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You really did - I'm surprised you didn't win in normal time, b/c Italy dominated that game from the 2nd half on...

Great Euro for Us... incredible

[Chicago]

I think these players were just too young to handle the pressure of a penalty shootout. Congrats Italy

[lorddemaxus]

23 minutes ago, TMP said:

If this is what Widow did, I think some upcoming movies will have ugly opening weekends. Could see Space Jam, Jungle Cruise and The Suicide Squad all doing sub-$40m. Snake Eyes and Free Guy already feel DOA.

Jungle Cruise is sub-$20 mil.

[grey ghost]

28 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:

 

Because nearly everyone that bought PA this weekend would have either seen it in theaters or purchased it when it was released to the home market.  Now, Disney lost out on all the people that would have went to the theater and also bought the movie and all they got in return was basically moving up when they can realize the revenue they where going to make anyways by a few months.

 

How do you know that?

 

My family is only watching it because it's available at home. Plenty of people, especially kids, are not vaccinated.

 

And none of us still buy DVD's. We watch most movies and shows on streaming. Our dvd player is collecting dust in the garage.

 

If 2 million people went to theater (which they wouldn't because of covid) instead of using PA, Disney is making only 12 million in profit.

 

That's a crappy trade off even if you include the low number of people buying the BW DVD.

[grey ghost]

Is Space Jam and Suicide Squad going to be free on HBO Max day of release?

 

If so, yikes.

 

[ThomasNicole]

I never understand what Disney expect with Jungle Cruise, but they used to seem very confident with it.

 

It was supposed to come out in October 2019 when Disney decided to put in on July 2020 which is a way better date for legs.

 

Than with pandemic they sacrifice Mulan which is more expensive but they delay Jungle Cruise again to July 2021 and they only decide to put in on PA recently.

 

Maybe the movie is actually pretty good and they was expecting great legs to a good final numbers? But now with so many delays, lots of trailers, PA etc, i think even a good movie will not save it. With luck, maybe Cruella numbers, which is fine but the movie also look more expensive than Cruella.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Is Space Jam and Suicide Squad going to be free on HBO Max day of release?

 

If so, yikes.

 

 

Yes, 100% confirmed.

 

I think they can turn Dune and Matrix back to theatrical only since they're expensive, have some bigger hype and could benefit of some weekends of exclusivity for theaters.

 

But all the other smaller movies i'm sure they will keep the HBO Max thing, at this point putting them theatrical only will make then only lose even more money, since they already paid all their talents to get them happy and agreed with this strategy in the first place.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

The only thing that matters is whether or not my Disney stock increases tomorrow. That's how I will determine if this is a successful weekend or a flop.

I doubt black widow will have much of an impact on disney stock price. Their theme park revenue on the other hand is a huge factor. Other thing is Disney + subscriber growth. The stock will go up or down based on subs growth. Market seems to love that more than profit !!!

[Cap]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I never understand what Disney expect with Jungle Cruise, but they used to seem very confident with it.

My friends and I are actually really excited for it. It’s giving me serious African Queen, Romancing The Stone and/or The Mummy feels.  I think if you just let the rock and Emily Blunt be delightfully infectious, and give some old fashion adventure hijinks, it would be a solid flick. 

[jimisawesome]

15 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

How do you know that?

 

My family is only watching it because it's available at home. Plenty of people, especially kids, are not vaccinated.

 

And none of us still buy DVD's. We watch most movies and shows on streaming. Our dvd player is collecting dust in the garage.

 

If 2 million people went to theater (which they wouldn't because of covid) instead of using PA, Disney is making only 12 million in profit.

 

That's a crappy trade off even if you include the low number of people buying the BW DVD.

 

You are right, every single one of those 2 million people would have gone to the theater to see this movie if PA was not there.  None of these 2 million people would have purchased the digital release under a traditional window.  They all just went you know what lets see BW on PA out of the blue.

 

And kids movies have been the worst hit movies during COVID with awful legs like Raya, Tom and Jerry, and the Croods.