BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[lorddemaxus]

The issue of piracy is way more complicated than any of this. Piracy is a lot common in some countries than others and it's hard to generalize it for everyone. 

 

And GvK's legs can't be compared to KoTM. The former released on Wednesday. GvK did end up legging slightly better in a market like China.

[Chicago]

23 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

There are people who watch movies for the shared experience, theatrical experience - visuals / sounds etc and there are those who watch for content only. You belong to the latter group; while I belong to the former. We are in a box office forum so I am hoping most think like me.

 

Hybrid / simultaneous releases are more common now not because studio wants it but because there is a pandemic going on. Once (a big if) we recover cleaning from it, i genuinely don't think that is the norm. Such releases is for people to have a choice - for people who are not in safe areas - no access to the movie in theaters, or don't feel safe to head to a theater; to watch a film safely and comfortably at home - legally. But if you want to exploit that and pirate a movie (even though you feel safe to go to the movies), then it is your decision. Lol.

 

If someone drops a wallet infront of you, and he didn't notice it - you can pick it up and either (1) return to him or (2) take the wallet and walk / run away. 

Pirates are those who choose the 2nd option.

Some people blame the person who dropped the wallet for being careless (studios), but i think the fault lies with people who decide to take the money and run (the pirates).

 

Just because someone drops his wallet infront of you - doesn't mean you have to take it, and it also doesn't mean it is right for you to take it.

Sorry but no they are morally completely different. No-one likes a wallet taking thief yet no-one gives a shit about someone who watches a movie for free. You cannot class them as the same thing.

 

Ill go to the cinemas depending on the movie, like a comedy or an epic like Endgame work well with an audience but if i've got to self isolate for 8 days and a 4k version of your newly released movie comes up on my Kodi then I'm going to play it. It's not like I can ring up Disney and tell them they left their movie online for all to see

 

You wouldn't call someone a thief for listening to music singles on YouTube all day. 

Edited July 12, 2021 by Chicago

[TigerPaw]

23 minutes ago, Chicago said:

Sorry but no they are morally completely different. No-one likes a wallet taking thief yet no-one gives a shit about someone who watches a movie for free. You cannot class them as the same thing.

 

Ill go to the cinemas depending on the movie, like a comedy or an epic like Endgame work well with an audience but if i've got to self isolate for 8 days and a 4k version of your newly released movie comes up on my Kodi then I'm going to play it. It's not like I can ring up Disney and tell them they left their movie online for all to see

 

You wouldn't call someone a thief for listening to music singles on YouTube all day. 

Yeah whatever makes you feel better for pirating a film. Lol.

 

You can make your own classification what film should be pirated, watch in theaters - and different people have different classification. Some may say Black Widow must be watched on the big screen and refuse to pirate it.

 

Again; you think all the people who paid for GvK - contributing the USD400m worldwide doesn't know a HD copy is out there for free? Those who contributed the USD200m for BW first weekend didn't know about piracy? 

 

My argument stands - you asked who will watch or pay for a movie if they know a pirated copy is out there? Millions of people. You want to save $$$ and don't want to pay for it, doesn't mean others will do the same.

BW will still hit USD500m worldwide when all said and done. And don't blame legs JUST on piracy. Movie quality, WoM, holding power in theaters, competition, COVID cases spiking up all plays a part.

If there are no new movies for the next 2 months, and if BW was A+ in cinemascore, doesnt matter piracy or not - it might hit 3x multiple. LOL. but as i said there are alot of factors at play such as competition and WoM.

 

Also....Youtubers / artists actually earns from the view counts on their videos. So your example is not right; and there are analytics and data collected there which the Youtubers / Artists can put to good use. These are legal means of listening to music, unlike pirating movies.

Edited July 12, 2021 by TigerPaw

[grey ghost]

Was BW released in China?

 

If it wasn't then why not?

[RRA]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Was BW released in China?

 

If it wasn't then why not?

Not yet. 
 

as for why, I’ll let locals explain that one. It’s complicated.

[Chicago]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Yeah whatever makes you feel better for pirating a film. Lol.

 

You can make your own classification what film should be pirated, watch in theaters - and different people have different classification. Some may say Black Widow must be watched on the big screen and refuse to pirate it.

 

Again; you think all the people who paid for GvK - contributing the USD400m worldwide doesn't know a HD copy is out there for free? Those who contributed the USD200m for BW first weekend didn't know about piracy? 

 

My argument stands - you asked who will watch or pay for a movie if they know a pirated copy is out there? Millions of people. BW will still hit USD500m worldwide when all said and done. And don't blame legs JUST on piracy, movie quality, holding power in theaters, competition, COVID cases spiking up all plays a part.

 

Also....Youtubers / artists actually earns from the view counts on their videos. So your example is not right; and there are analytics and data collected there which the Youtubers / Artists can put to good use. These are legal means of listening to music, unlike pirating movies.

I pay £10 a month for a cinema pass, ill never feel bad for pirating a movie. I bet if you saw a copy of black widow sitting on the street, you'd take it home rather than send it to disney offices lol. Its up to disney not to make it so easy. If we were to trust the goodwill of humans then we wouldn't need things like house locks or antivirus would we lol

 

 

Not everyone is tech savy enough to know where to find pirated movies, if they were these numbers would be even worse. In the future these people will have easier access to these copies, just like what happened in the music industry

 

And the money these youtubers make for views is insignificant compared to the days of buying a single. 3 lions had 26m downloads in 2018, netted the song makers just 900 quid lol. The music Industry ended up losing that battle and so will the movie industry if they want to make it easy for us to get their products.

 

At not one point did I say piracy is the sole reason for any underperformance but it seems obvious to point out that it will become a major problem if they continue down this path

[TigerPaw]

2 hours ago, Chicago said:

I pay £10 a month for a cinema pass, ill never feel bad for pirating a movie. I bet if you saw a copy of black widow sitting on the street, you'd take it home rather than send it to disney offices lol. Its up to disney not to make it so easy. If we were to trust the goodwill of humans then we wouldn't need things like house locks or antivirus would we lol

 

 

Not everyone is tech savy enough to know where to find pirated movies, if they were these numbers would be even worse. In the future these people will have easier access to these copies, just like what happened in the music industry

 

And the money these youtubers make for views is insignificant compared to the days of buying a single. 3 lions had 26m downloads in 2018, netted the song makers just 900 quid lol. The music Industry ended up losing that battle and so will the movie industry if they want to make it easy for us to get their products.

 

At not one point did I say piracy is the sole reason for any underperformance but it seems obvious to point out that it will become a major problem if they continue down this path

You do note that when I first quote you; i was not disagreeing with you right?

 

I was agreeing but to a certain extend only. Piracy definitely impacts films, especially HD copies being out there - but it is not like you said "who will still pay to watch the film?". Apparently millions of people.

 

And my point was really to say that if at the end BW didn't have a good multiplier or have below expectations worldwide gross - I hope people or even Disney execs don't simply blame PA and piracy ONLY; there are many other factors which they should consider - some of which can help them make their future films better..

Edited July 12, 2021 by TigerPaw

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Was BW released in China?

 

If it wasn't then why not?

 

Officially, they found a problem with the movie they want fixed.

Unofficially, who knows why.  Maybe it really is for that reason.

[TigerPaw]

35 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Was BW released in China?

 

If it wasn't then why not?

 

Was supposed to released on 29th April - China’s Labour Day weekend; one of the most lucrative weekends of the entire year (where Hollywood films usually are not allowed to be released) and whole of May is a good period for films (see F9); however Disney pulled the plug last minute without notifying the film burea first, and pissed off the burea apparently.

- July is a rough month to be honest for Hollywood films to be released there ; usually a black out month for local films to show - been many years already; usually Hollywood films have delayed release and will only be in August. 
 

I am surprised no one else here noticed?

 

You guys can check out some of the past Hollywood film, with domestic July release dates, and their released dates in China. 

 

Anyway in the end all of May’s films were quite bad; even Fast9’s Maoyan score was quite pathetic. Had Black Widow opened in late April, I genuinely have no doubt due to lack of competition - it would at least have earned USD150m

 

Edit: also for BW, understand from Gavin that there were some censorship issues which they didn’t spot back in April but due to the delay, they rechecked the film and noticed the issues.

Edited July 12, 2021 by TigerPaw

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

You think the people who contributed to the USD400m worldwide of GvK; or the people who contributed to the >USD200m (including PA) opening of BW - all these people doesn't know piracy exist?

Most of them? Yes.

 

There are still many around me who don't know how to download movie. Though Telegram has reduced those by a lot. Many didn't knew that GvK will be available on HBO Max within week.

 

Day and Date streaming may not have instant affect on numbers, but once you make audience aware of reduced theatrical window, they will start waiting. Overseas revenue of South Indian films has started taking big hit due to that, because film is out on Netflix/Prime in 4 weeks. So much so, distributor market their film as.

 

Edited July 12, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[TigerPaw]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Most of them? Yes.

within those there are people who still chose to support PA or watching in theaters.

 

and if there are so many people who doesn’t know that piracy exists - then isn’t it good? It means a lot of people may be overstating the impact of piracy.

[Saul Goodman]

I think they should try to get BW released in August there, Homecoming did good enough business in 2017 releasing at the same time.

[Blankments]

Y’all are dry 

[Liiviig 1998]

52 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

I think they should try to get BW released in August there, Homecoming did good enough business in 2017 releasing at the same time.

Why  do people continue using this as a comp . Wasn't it still in theatres  not yet released digitally.

 

BW is practically available online with clear crystal resolution.

 

Will all see what happened to mulan. 

[Chicago]

2 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

You do note that when I first quote you; i was not disagreeing with you right?

 

I was agreeing but to a certain extend only. Piracy definitely impacts films, especially HD copies being out there - but it is not like you sais "who will still pay to watch the film?". Apparently millions of people.

 

And my point was really to say that if at the end BW didn't have a good multiplier or have below expectations worldwide gross - I hope people or even Disney execs don't simply blame PA and piracy ONLY; there are many other factors which they should consider - some of which can help them make their future films better..

Sorry if I seemed off, I'm English, we are allowed to be bitter today after getting spanked by Italy.

 

Of course millions will still pay to watch it but this new way of releasing films is still in the early stages. I hope as you said that it's only here to give people options through the pandemic and not the new norm. Even though the franchises have done well over the years, there is a case that smaller movies find it much harder to find success and cinema goers are choosing to watch these at home rather than see them on the big screen. I just don't want it to start happening with the blockbusters too.

 

I get your point, I doubt BW is seen by most as a MUST SEE like the previous MCU movies before it so could have disappointed in normal circumstances anyways.

 

Edited July 12, 2021 by Chicago

[Madhuvan]

Also, I think Space Jam will be no 1 movie this weekend. Black Widow might have 65%+ drop all things considered. 

 

[Mojoguy]

Shang Chi and Eternals will be the real test because everyone that wants a vaccine should be able to get one by then in the US.

 

BW is still being impacted too much by pandemic and PA.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Mojoguy

[WrathOfHan]

DIS stock is up 2.33% today and at their highest point in several months.

 

This was a successful weekend 

[Mojoguy]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

DIS stock is up 2.33% today and at their highest point in several months.

 

This was a successful weekend 

Thank all the Disney + shows like WandaVision and Loki instead of BW.

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Shang Chi and Eternals will be the real test because everyone that wants a vaccine should be able to get one by then in the US.

 

BW is still being impacted too much by pandemic and PA.

 

That was already the case by Black Widow...and under 12s won't get approval by Shang Chi, b/c of the uber-rare heart inflammation issue - that's gonna slow down approval for the youngest kids as they do research and trials to see if they can avoid that issue and still provide protection...