BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[fabiopazzo2]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Spider-Man if the rumors are true will be fairly huge (400m if we don't get another virus surge) and Thor 4 will be huge because that's a true A-Lister within the MCU, and BP2 will be huge because of sheer curiosity. The other MCU movies, even including Captain Marvel, Dr. Strange, and GOTG, are bound to see a drop as the franchise gets further from Endgame and true urgency. 

Doctor Strange has increased its popularity thanks to Infinity War/Endgame (and Russo's brothers). 
 

in a good situation 300m is The minimun goal for it 

[Eric Atreides]

Ehh screw it, Phase 4 Predix

 

Shang-Chi: 215M

Eternals: 280M

No Way Home: 410M

Doctor Strange 2: 330M

Thor 4: 410M

Black Panther 2: 605M

The Marvels: 375M

Ant-Man 3: 270M

Guardians 3: 350M

 

I don't know if these are too optimistic or what, but I think doubting Papa Feige is fruitless at this stage. The Disney+ shows will probably also serve as good hype machines for Captain Marvel 2 and Doctor Strange 2, plus whatever else big crossover is in store.

[Cmasterclay]

I admittedly didn't realize they were doing the big crossover stuff with Dr. Strange, so an increase seems very reasonable (though not 400m like pre-Endgame MCU movies could pull).

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Spider-Man if the rumors are true will be fairly huge (400m if we don't get another virus surge) and Thor 4 will be huge because that's a true A-Lister within the MCU, and BP2 will be huge because of sheer curiosity. The other MCU movies, even including Captain Marvel, Dr. Strange, and GOTG, are bound to see a drop as the franchise gets further from Endgame and true urgency. 

 

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think Strange will increase after WandaVision. Maybe not to 300M, but I think 250M+ is doable.

DS2 350+

CM2 320+

Gotg3 440+

[Eric Atreides]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

 

DS2 350+

CM2 320+

Gotg3 440+

That last one seems a little too intense. I know it's too far off to really judge the story, but it doesn't seem like there's any real big hook for Guardians 3. And they're already gonna be in Thor 4 so people will already get a good Guardians fix by then.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

That last one seems a little too intense. I know it's too far off to really judge the story, but it doesn't seem like there's any real big hook for Guardians 3. And they're already gonna be in Thor 4 so people will already get a good Guardians fix by then.

Nah, went fairly conservative on that one. Just 440 would be basically a flat performance from gotg2 (adjusted for 2023 vs 2017), which also had no big hook. It’s just a very well liked team, and they’ll have appeared in IW+Endgame+Thor4 in the meantime.   
 

If the theatrical marketplace is permanently deflated blah blah blah then of course go a little lower.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Blankments]

In a world without covid and without gunn getting fired, GOTG3 does 200m opening weekend in May 2020 FIGHT ME

[Madhuvan]

5 minutes ago, Blankments said:

In a world without covid and without gunn getting fired, GOTG3 does 200m opening weekend in May 2020 FIGHT ME

100% for sure. Actually in normal world , I was seeing marvel phase 4 averaging 1bn per movie.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Blankments said:

In a world without covid and without gunn getting fired, GOTG3 does 200m opening weekend in May 2020 FIGHT ME

I think it does about the same in that world and in May 2023.  
 

GOtG1 opened 32nd, Gotg2 17th. MCU threequels are often pretty juiced so could that get like 10th-7th with a 200M? Sure, maybe. I’d go for more like 180 I guess.

[Blankments]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I think it does about the same in that world and in May 2023.  
 

GOtG1 opened 32nd, Gotg2 17th. MCU threequels are often pretty juiced so could that get like 10th-7th with a 200M? Sure, maybe. I’d go for more like 180 I guess.

Endgame sets up GOTG3 more than any other movie. It also would’ve presumably had a major supporting role for Thor (unlike now where Thor 4 is getting a gotg supporting turn)

[Cmasterclay]

Why does Guardians of the Galaxy 3 need to exist when they are all in Thor next year? Isn't that the big use of them?

[poweranimals]

So how is tracking looking today anyway? I know it's only 2pm but I would think we're getting an idea of what to expect.

[Fullbuster]

12 hours ago, Cap said:

I think my big issue with 100 million Is repeat viewing. The MCU has crazy fans, and they will go see the movie multiple times on opening weekend. I know this from personal experience. But with Covid, and with Premiere Access, how many people are going to go back to see it again? The friend that I saw it with today basically said the same. He said that he was going to see it once at the movie theater, and then maybe pay to watch it at home on Disney+.  
 

And to be honest, that’s gonna be the difference between and incredibly solid number, and something truly spectacular.

 

True.

 

Disney wins in both cases anyway

[SnokesLegs]

52 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I think it does about the same in that world and in May 2023.  
 

GOtG1 opened 32nd, Gotg2 17th. MCU threequels are often pretty juiced so could that get like 10th-7th with a 200M? Sure, maybe. I’d go for more like 180 I guess.

GOTG3 is locked for a over a billion if they market it as the finale for that group of characters, and if anything I think their presumably brief appearance in Thor Love & Thunder (and the Holiday Special on D+) will increase the hype for GOTG3. By the time it comes out, it’ll be 6 years since GOTG2. I actually think it’ll beat Love & Thunder’s OW and totals, and I say that as someone who would probably rank Ragnarok as my favourite MCU movie.

[wildphantom]

F9 might hold better than expected going forward. 

Widow will be the first movie in theaters for some in over a year.  Once they have a good time they might well come back to see F9 - especially as it’s like the only major movie out that the studios aren’t giving away for free. 

[Cap]

2 hours ago, Blankments said:

In a world without covid and without gunn getting fired, GOTG3 does 200m opening weekend in May 2020 FIGHT ME

Basically this. But now you have all of that + Pratt’s politics. I don’t think they are as shinny as they used to be. 
 

That hypocritically said, I would die for Rocket. 

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, Cap said:

Basically this. But now you have all of that + Pratt’s politics. I don’t think they are as shinny as they used to be. 
 

That hypocritically said, I would die for Rocket. 

No way the GA cares (or knows) about Pratt’s politics. 

[Fullbuster]

8 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

No way the GA cares (or knows) about Pratt’s politics. 

 

I don't even know about Pratt's politics myself, neither does I care.

[Eric Atreides]

https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-opening-weekend-box-office-1234789473/

 

Quote

FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: Industry estimates –not Disney– are seeing Marvel’s Black Widow at a first day in the $40M+ range, with a shot of exceeding $90M. Conservative projections are in the mid-$80Ms over Friday-Sunday. Today’s number includes last night’s previews of $13.2M. We always footnote these Friday midday numbers as a lot can change between now and tonight. Also, there’s the Disney+ Premier factor. How much is that eating into grosses?

 

There’s also Tropical Storm Elsa which is dumping water and flooding streets in New York and Connecticut. While we often say rain drives people to the cinema, this is the type of rain you don’t even get in the car for; in that regard a Disney+ Premier at $29.99 of the Scarlet Johansson movie is a revenue backstop for Disney to a certain degree. Remember, the studio gets to keep all that Disney+ Premier cash, and doesn’t split with exhibition. Again, it’s how the whole Disney+ of it all cannibalizes ancillaries down the road, and several rival studio executives and financiers tell me, only Disney knows the truth.

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

40m Friday per DL