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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (7/16-18) | Space Jam 31.6, Widow 26.3, Escape Room 8.8, F9 7.6, Boss Baby 4.7

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1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Any predictions for next weekend?

 

Looks like both Old and Snake Eyes are getting 3,300+ locations. 
 

I’m thinking:


Old $15m+ (but very frontloaded if the rumours are true lol)

Snake Eyes $12m 


Is that OD or OW🤔

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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Wait, are we blaming MCU shows for a perfectly natural second weekend drop for the sidequel about an already dead character? BW is doing great for a total filler. Nor many studios would get away with it. 

 

Nobody wanted Solo and they recast it with the actors who didn't resemble the originals in any way. 

I do agree poeple using mcu shows  as an excuse is a weird goal post .

But saying it's a natural  drop because it's  filler and about a dead character is a wierd one too.

 

You do realize this movie had hype and would have opened to 110m+ OW without PA.

Trailers for this were well received and this would have made a good 850m+ pre pandemic. 

 

Its dropping around 66% from last weekend. is not a natural drop for an mcu movie even in July.

 

Ant-man and CFA dropped around 60%, homecoming 61%

Let's wait for results for international but drops look meh too.

PA and reception and delta in  some parts are affecting this and it has less to do with her movie being about a dead character or being a sidequel .

 

It's weekdays are playing  closer to Ant-man 2 , but at least for the first instance the weekend seems to be dropping bigger . Let's see how that does next week .

 

Amtaw dropped 46% in weekend three.

 

 

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13 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

 

You are trying to say it is moronic and makes no sense when they have made a streaming service that has gotten as many subscribers in a year and a half as Netflix got in a decade and will likely be the biggest streaming service in the world five to ten years from now. And you are trying to say that earning 60m in a weekend off of a pay wall was moronic? 

 

Yes you are going to have to get used to the fact that theaters are no longer the priority for studios. They are now earning every single month from their streaming site about what a major blockbuster would earn them. I think Disney knows perfectly well how to handle this and they are likely very pleased with the results. People that are infatuated with movie theaters though are just going to have to accept the fact that they aren't the go to crowd any longer.


Their streaming subscribers have got nothing to do with Black Widow. 
Their last quarter slowed dramatically in terms of new subs, so growth is slowing. 
 

Regardless, 2 million out of over 100 million subscribers paying for Marvel’s first movie in 2 years is not good. At all. 
Yet by putting it on there they then let many, many more millions of people all over the world watch it for free. 
 

Theatrical prevents all of that, they make a ton of money - and then more money again through PVOD, discs etc. 
 

I get that D+ has been a success for them, but not to the point where they put everything on there and lose out on the monster money other distribution streams have given them for years. 
 

and yes, I do think it is moronic to put your massively anticipated event movie online for free on day one. 
 

you think Disney will be pleased with a $200 million domestic gross, so so PA numbers and millions of people watching it for nothing? I would think their response is notably more mixed than pleased.  We’re in an experimental phase where they are taking advantage of the pandemic to try this all out.  It won’t last. 
 

It took an MCU movie for them to actually give us a number from PA.  radio silence on Raya, Mulan and Cruella as their numbers were apparently very disappointing (there’s a ton of articles sourcing industry experts that know this to be the case). 
 

This won’t be the new normal, and I am astounded at your apathy in expecting it to be. 
 

Each to their own though. I respect you think day and date D+ is the future. I do not, and think the writing is already on the wall. 

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Why did F9 open to only 70m OW and drop 67% it's 2nd weekend.

 

"Oh because of the pandemic"

 

Why did BW open to only 80m OW and drop 66% it's 2nd weekend?

 

"Oh because disney is giving it away for free!"

 

Then why is SJ2 doing well?

 

"...."

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Just now, grey ghost said:

Why did F9 open to only 70m OW and drop 67% it's 2nd weekend.

 

"Oh because of the pandemic"

 

Why did BW open to only 80m OW and drop 66% it's 2nd weekend?

 

"Oh because disney is giving it away for free!"

 

Then why is SJ2 doing well?

 

"...."

You're just making stuff up lol. Very few people said that about F9. Most of us knew that F9 dropped that bad due to a mix of 4th of July on its Sunday and underwhelming word of mouth.

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Also worth nothing that while a 30M debut for Space Jam is over expectations, not even by much. 30 had pretty consistently been the high end of BOP’s range.    
 

And it’s pretty awful compared to the budget.

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Yeah, people are getting too excited over a $30 mil OW. I don't think it even matters considering that the movie probably already made its budget back from promotional tie-ins and merch sales (which was pretty much what this movie was all about in in the first place, like the first film).

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1 hour ago, wildphantom said:


Their streaming subscribers have got nothing to do with Black Widow. 
Their last quarter slowed dramatically in terms of new subs, so growth is slowing. 
 

Regardless, 2 million out of over 100 million subscribers paying for Marvel’s first movie in 2 years is not good. At all. 
Yet by putting it on there they then let many, many more millions of people all over the world watch it for free. 
 

Theatrical prevents all of that, they make a ton of money - and then more money again through PVOD, discs etc. 
 

I get that D+ has been a success for them, but not to the point where they put everything on there and lose out on the monster money other distribution streams have given them for years. 
 

and yes, I do think it is moronic to put your massively anticipated event movie online for free on day one. 
 

you think Disney will be pleased with a $200 million domestic gross, so so PA numbers and millions of people watching it for nothing? I would think their response is notably more mixed than pleased.  We’re in an experimental phase where they are taking advantage of the pandemic to try this all out.  It won’t last. 
 

It took an MCU movie for them to actually give us a number from PA.  radio silence on Raya, Mulan and Cruella as their numbers were apparently very disappointing (there’s a ton of articles sourcing industry experts that know this to be the case). 
 

This won’t be the new normal, and I am astounded at your apathy in expecting it to be. 
 

Each to their own though. I respect you think day and date D+ is the future. I do not, and think the writing is already on the wall. 

 

Have you just been ignoring all these acknowledgements we have heard over the past couple years that streaming is where the priority is going to now be? That the main focus is now going to be in studios trying to build up their streaming platforms. It makes complete sense for them to put one of their main  movies directly onto streaming because it helps advertise their streaming site (you know the thing that they are mainly focused on now). I'm sure they know that a portion of the audience will try to find ways around paying for it (as they try to find ways around paying for anything these days) but when you are trying to build up your platform advertising it with a new movie from a popular IP is the smart thing to do. THese studios aren't thinking about how any particular one movie will do. They are thinking five to ten years down the road and in what they are hoping to build.

 

And as far as the Disney plus subscriber numbers go of course it was going to slow down a bit once the pandemic started easing up. Even with that though Disney plus still got about twice as many new subscribers then any other streaming platform during the last quarter. Any argument that the streaming numbers are slowing down holds little to no merit because they are trying to compare it to the numbers it got during the year when everyone was sitting at home.

 

Yes you are eventually going to have to accept that the era of the billion dollar movie is likely over. Studios are far more concerned now with building up their streaming platforms then they are in movies making a billion dollars at the theater.

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9 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Also worth nothing that while a 30M debut for Space Jam is over expectations, not even by much. 30 had pretty consistently been the high end of BOP’s range.    
 

And it’s pretty awful compared to the budget.

I would not be too impressed by $30M OW but 48% occupancy on Day 1 was insane.

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16 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

You're just making stuff up lol. Very few people said that about F9. Most of us knew that F9 dropped that bad due to a mix of 4th of July on its Sunday and underwhelming word of mouth.

 

What's the excuse for F9's 70m OW?

 

Is it not the pandemic? 

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19 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

I mean Raya and Cruella saw great legs; Cruella not just domestically but overseas as well..

 

While the quantum is obviously different, size much smaller but I think WoM is a key factor for legs - with or without PA.

 

Also - GvK's legs in China were not cut in its 2nd weekend (onward) when HD copy was everywhere

 

Come on people. This is a box office site, why have such amateur takes? Of course the quantum matters.

 

BW opened to more than Raya and Cruella made total. 

 

I'm not really a Marvel fan, but MCU is clearly the biggest global franchise. This matters because people will want to see it ASAP and when half the world is in lockdown and a HD copy is available on day 1, of course they'll see it. That's literally the only option.

 

Of course we're talking about the US, but I think it's the same. People like to say the pirates won't have watched it anyway, and whilst that may be true for many movies, it does not hold water for Black Widow. This was the event movie to welcome people back to cinemas and Disney decided to put it on Disney+ PA. 

 

18 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

What about F9?

 

Why is a low 70m OW perfectly acceptable?

 

It's a theater exclusive.

 

And if piracy and PA are so horrible then why does SJ2 have a solid OW?

 

It's currently free on HBO Max.

 

 

 

Refer above, but it does seem like it's the same group of people who really want to see the death of theatres and want to see day and date happen until the tombstone is in the ground. The world doesn't revolve around your selfish wants. This will affect product in the long term. Don't have to be a genius to see it.

 

F9 opened weeks before in China and was also apparently not great so its legs are predictable plus the franchise was already trending downward. 

 

Because most people DGAF about SJ2 and don't have HBO Max. 

 

17 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

 

People watching it on Disney plus is exactly what Disney wants though. Even if a portion of them are watching it for free (and I think you are exaggerating a bit just how many of them are watching it for free) it still means their eyes are on their streaming service. A streaming service that we all know is a far bigger priority for them than the movie theaters are. I'm sure a certain portion of them paid for a new subscription to watch it on Disney plus and if some watched it for free on disney plus a portion of that group also paid for a new subscription.

 

People are just going to have to come around to this being the new normal. THe days of movies getting 150-200m OW domestic and legging their way from repeat viewing to a billion dollars is likely over for the most part. Probably even more than opening weekends where streaming will affect theaters is that people won't be as inclined to go pay for a full ticket again of a movie they have already seen when they will just have to wait a few weeks to watch it on their streaming site as many times as they want for the price of a regular monthly subscription.

 

And that again is exactly what Disney wants to happen because it puts eyes on their streaming site.

 

Just refer to a poster here. Streamed on Discord for free. 1 person paid 79 free. 

 

Every country which has theatres closed or PA or Disney+ unavailable has a free HD copy floating around the Internet. 

 

Disney+ may be their priority but this has been a terrible decision, much like pulling Luca's release. 

 

Your second paragraph is mostly right though. There are a lot of repeat viewers so having subscribed to a streaming platform and it being on there in 45 days will surely impact repeat viewings and also physical media sales. It's a smaller pie. The only way the financials make sense is if there are more people who subscribed who didn't usually go to the cinemas at all. Also the theatres will gain more solid footing if the pandemic gets under control because unlike what the streamers here think, the theatrical release gives it prestige and an event feel.

 

Another thing that people fail to grasp is the subscriber count - which I guess is hard to blame y'all because I'm sure even the clueless execs have no idea what they're doing at the moment. Trying to measure a movie's success based on how many subs it got is dumb because the further and further you get into the life of the platform there are just less people out there to subscribe. It's just math. People might subscribe after a series is over, so they can watch everything in one go and that might correlate with another movie's debut. That's why Luca forgoing cinemas was incredibly dumb. 

 

It'll take awhile for them to realize that it's all just cost cost cost. To keep a streaming platform alive you need content for your existing subs. Growth will stall eventually - but in America that's forbidden to say. Capitalism means forever growth. Clowns.

 

15 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

 

You are trying to say it is moronic and makes no sense when they have made a streaming service that has gotten as many subscribers in a year and a half as Netflix got in a decade and will likely be the biggest streaming service in the world five to ten years from now. And you are trying to say that earning 60m in a weekend off of a pay wall was moronic? 

 

Yes you are going to have to get used to the fact that theaters are no longer the priority for studios. They are now earning every single month from their streaming site about what a major blockbuster would earn them. I think Disney knows perfectly well how to handle this and they are likely very pleased with the results. People that are infatuated with movie theaters though are just going to have to accept the fact that they aren't the go to crowd any longer.

 

And they'll continue to grow at that rate? No they won't. Simple math.

 

Yep because they lost more in the long run than what the $60m gave. The number looks good, but scrutiny makes it look terrible. 

 

Sure, sure. You think your content will stay the same forever? Clueless. 

 

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Just tag me next time, why don't you. 😘

 

I think... I think Solo was something of a perfect storm of events.  From a premise that wasn't... let's say fully embraced by the GA, to a very peculiar reluctance from Lucasfilm to actually market the film, to just plain exhaustion from The Great TLJ Wars to all of the behind the scenes drama actually mattering far more than folks thought.

 

And, yes, perhaps a movie that didn't seem "epic" whatever the hell that means.

 

Change any one variable (my personal fav whipping boy is Disney's bizarre marketing strategy [or rather lack there of]) and perhaps Solo does better.  Maybe Solo does better if it is released now (or rather once the post-COVID landscape is more settled) now that more of the GA has gotten used to non-epic SW (Mando, TCW becoming more popular, the seeming never ending list of shows on the horizon over on D+).

 

Or maybe it always was gonna do poorly.  Maybe the GA was opposed to Alden Ehrenreich as Han Solo that much, and no matter what Lucasfilm tried to do, it would be an uphill battle.

 

I suspect we'll never know.

 

...

 

We'll also know in VERY short order whether or not there really is such a thing as Star Wars Fatigue. given that 2022 is gonna practically be All Star Wars, All The Time over on D+ (or at least heavily saturated if one wants to take a mooted S2 of The Bad Batch out of the equation as being far off the scope of the GA radar, which, you know what?  More than fair).  Gonna be at least three live-action SW shows on D+ next year (The Book of Boba Fett. Kenobi, Andor), and possibly a fourth if filming for another series starts up at the end of this year.

 

Maybe there really is something to the idea.  I for one don't expect The Book of Boba Fett or Andor to reach Mando level of popularity.  But, then again, it doesn't need to over on D+.

 

Ultimately, I think the lesson of Solo was don't reshoot three quarters of the film budget a film/project more appropriately and actually plan for more mid-size success.

 

Star Wars fans just need to realize that their fanbase actually has a limit. Thank God OS showed this. 

 

And luckily domestically it showed as well that no one cares for Solo just because Star Wars.

 

16 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Why did F9 open to only 70m OW and drop 67% it's 2nd weekend.

 

"Oh because of the pandemic"

 

Why did BW open to only 80m OW and drop 66% it's 2nd weekend?

 

"Oh because disney is giving it away for free!"

 

Then why is SJ2 doing well?

 

"...."

 

Stop playing dumb.

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9 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

 

Have you just been ignoring all these acknowledgements we have heard over the past couple years that streaming is where the priority is going to now be? That the main focus is now going to be in studios trying to build up their streaming platforms. It makes complete sense for them to put one of their main  movies directly onto streaming because it helps advertise their streaming site (you know the thing that they are mainly focused on now). I'm sure they know that a portion of the audience will try to find ways around paying for it (as they try to find ways around paying for anything these days) but when you are trying to build up your platform advertising it with a new movie from a popular IP is the smart thing to do. THese studios aren't thinking about how any particular one movie will do. They are thinking five to ten years down the road and in what they are hoping to build.

 

And as far as the Disney plus subscriber numbers go of course it was going to slow down a bit once the pandemic started easing up. Even with that though Disney plus still got about twice as many new subscribers then any other streaming platform during the last quarter. Any argument that the streaming numbers are slowing down holds little to no merit because they are trying to compare it to the numbers it got during the year when everyone was sitting at home.

 

Yes you are eventually going to have to accept that the era of the billion dollar movie is likely over. Studios are far more concerned now with building up their streaming platforms then they are in movies making a billion dollars at the theater.


I’m not ignoring anything. 
I get the short term promotion of IP to get subscribers, but with regards to Disney I don’t believe long term that’s why people will keep a subscription. 
In fact, I don’t believe virtually any subscriber would sub to D+ to be able to pay $30 to watch one movie. They subscribe and keep it so they can watch all the shows that dominate the conversation. 
 

Movies can do great business for studios using the existing model, and then go on their respective streaming services etc.  If they go day and date then they’re just throwing money away in my opinion. 
 

Everybody I know who would normally have seen BW in theaters and hasn’t, well they watched it for free.  So Disney went from getting guaranteed $ from a consumer to zero.  That does not sound like a great business plan to me, when long term getting these things for free is only going to get easier.  
 

Exclusive theater windows prevent this from happening. 
 

What they’re doing currently by putting the films online on day one would be akin to theaters just letting people in for free opening day. 
 

If you give your product away for nothing then how can you expect large numbers of your potential audience to hand anything over? 

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2 hours ago, RRA said:

Poor SE. 

 

let me guess for Old…dumb plot twist? That Robot Chicken sketch about that director is evergreen.

A dumb plot twist would be preferable to the ending from the source material.

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Would it be better for Disney if BW had no PA and made 95m OW and dropped 60% this weekend?

 

That's like extra 10m in profit vs 48 m from PA.

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20 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

What excuse? Normal number for it in non covid circumstances.

 70m is normal for a recent Fast and Furious movie?

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Just now, grey ghost said:

Would it be better for Disney if BW had no PA and made 95m OW and dropped 60% this weekend?

 

That's like extra 10m in profit vs 48 m from PA.

We have no clue about how PA affects things like ancillaries to even call any of that extra profit lol. 

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13 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

Come on people. This is a box office site, why have such amateur takes? Of course the quantum matters.

 

BW opened to more than Raya and Cruella made total. 

 

I'm not really a Marvel fan, but MCU is clearly the biggest global franchise. This matters because people will want to see it ASAP and when half the world is in lockdown and a HD copy is available on day 1, of course they'll see it. That's literally the only option.

 

Of course we're talking about the US, but I think it's the same. People like to say the pirates won't have watched it anyway, and whilst that may be true for many movies, it does not hold water for Black Widow. This was the event movie to welcome people back to cinemas and Disney decided to put it on Disney+ PA. 

 

 

Refer above, but it does seem like it's the same group of people who really want to see the death of theatres and want to see day and date happen until the tombstone is in the ground. The world doesn't revolve around your selfish wants. This will affect product in the long term. Don't have to be a genius to see it.

 

F9 opened weeks before in China and was also apparently not great so its legs are predictable plus the franchise was already trending downward. 

 

Because most people DGAF about SJ2 and don't have HBO Max. 

 

 

Just refer to a poster here. Streamed on Discord for free. 1 person paid 79 free. 

 

Every country which has theatres closed or PA or Disney+ unavailable has a free HD copy floating around the Internet. 

 

Disney+ may be their priority but this has been a terrible decision, much like pulling Luca's release. 

 

Your second paragraph is mostly right though. There are a lot of repeat viewers so having subscribed to a streaming platform and it being on there in 45 days will surely impact repeat viewings and also physical media sales. It's a smaller pie. The only way the financials make sense is if there are more people who subscribed who didn't usually go to the cinemas at all. Also the theatres will gain more solid footing if the pandemic gets under control because unlike what the streamers here think, the theatrical release gives it prestige and an event feel.

 

Another thing that people fail to grasp is the subscriber count - which I guess is hard to blame y'all because I'm sure even the clueless execs have no idea what they're doing at the moment. Trying to measure a movie's success based on how many subs it got is dumb because the further and further you get into the life of the platform there are just less people out there to subscribe. It's just math. People might subscribe after a series is over, so they can watch everything in one go and that might correlate with another movie's debut. That's why Luca forgoing cinemas was incredibly dumb. 

 

It'll take awhile for them to realize that it's all just cost cost cost. To keep a streaming platform alive you need content for your existing subs. Growth will stall eventually - but in America that's forbidden to say. Capitalism means forever growth. Clowns.

 

 

And they'll continue to grow at that rate? No they won't. Simple math.

 

Yep because they lost more in the long run than what the $60m gave. The number looks good, but scrutiny makes it look terrible. 

 

Sure, sure. You think your content will stay the same forever? Clueless. 

 

 

Star Wars fans just need to realize that their fanbase actually has a limit. Thank God OS showed this. 

 

And luckily domestically it showed as well that no one cares for Solo just because Star Wars.

 

 

Stop playing dumb.

 

What's dumb about what I said? Be specific.

 

And no more ad hominems, please.

 

It's rude.

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@RockyMountain @wildphantom Guys we already fought about this yesterday. It's clear you guys won't see eye to eye on this. I think it's fair to say we should probably take a hiatus on this argument because it's not going anywhere and it's getting exhausting to read through.

 

@BK007 I'm also not a fan of your attitude and condescension amongst others here. There's ways to argue without being mean and talking about others and their "amateur takes" or "don't have to be a genius to see an issue". Play nice or you will see further consequences.

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